Mitt Romney was in New Hampshire yesterday to attend the Americans for Prosperity Foundation Presidential Summit.
He had a little time to kill early in the day and did a litle retail politics:
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The NRA Convention has its first surprise, or at least a high-profile Republican who I figured would be here has addressed the attendees in video form: Mitt Romney was introduced by NRA’s Chris Cox as a leader “deeply committed to limited government.”
What if they held a Republican Primary contest and the front-runners didn’t show up? Or what if voters look for anybody but the front-runner? How do primary voters view the dark horses who are possible contenders for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination?If the 2012 Republican Primary for President were held today and you had a choice between Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Buddy Roemer, Gary Johnson, Thaddeus McCotter or John Huntsman for whom would you vote?
The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on April 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.The Full Story is HERE.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters shows ex-Massachusetts governor Romney earning 27% support, while Christie, the current governor of New Jersey, picks up 26% of the vote. Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin congressman whose controversial long-term budget plan shook up the spending debate in Washington, runs a distant third with 12%.Suppose some of the bigger names decided not to run for President in 2012 and you had a choice between Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Chris Christie, John Huntsman, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels and Paul Ryan….for whom would you vote?
The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on April 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.The full story can be read HERE.
Real estate developer Donald Trump unleashed a tirade of profanity in a speech at a boisterous Las Vegas casino as he assured a crowd of adoring supporters Thursday night that he is seriously weighing a presidential run and will make a decision soon.
During a 30-minute stump speech focused mostly on foreign affairs, Trump sprinkled in a number of insults directed toward the nation’s leaders.
“Our leaders are stupid, they are stupid people,” he said. “It’s just very, very sad.”
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The poll shows Romney beating Obama 50 to 43 percent. Smith said the result shows Obama losing steam with a particular group of voters.
"He's in danger of losing those independents," Smith said. "They've been sliding away over the last year because of health care and the continuing weakness in the economy."
When pitted against former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Obama comes out on top, 45 to 38 percent. But Smith said again the numbers signal trouble for the incumbent.
"Even against a largely unknown candidate, Obama is not able to reach 50 percent," Smith said. "And then when you put him up against social conservative Mike Huckabee, Obama is still not doing that well. He's leading, but only by a 46 percent to 42 percent margin over Huckabee.Head-to-Head: (These were the only match-ups)
These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll,∗ conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred four (504) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between April 15 and April 26, 2011. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.4 percent.The full story is HERE.
With the Republican field for the 2012 presidential nomination still in flux, the two major candidates who ran for president in 2008 -- Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee -- receive the most backing among GOP voters nationally.
Romney garners the support of 19 percent of Republicans and Huckabee 17 percent, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday. The next group of candidates is bunched together: Sarah Palin at nine percent, Donald Trump at eight percent, and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul receive seven percent a piece.
The Poll was based on live telephone interviews with a national sample of 911 registered voters, and was conducted April 25-27, 2011. MOE of +/-3%.The full story is HERE.
Romney and Huckabee are frontrunners among Iowa RepublicansIOWA Results: (ALL Iowans) [ Republicans ONLY]
Of Republicans in Iowa, 24 percent would choose Romney, and 23 percent would choose Huckabee.
Nationally, Romney received the most support among Republicans (17 percent), just slightly more than Huckabee's 16 percent. Sixteen percent of Republicans were not sure which candidate they would choose if primaries or caucuses were today.
Among respondents who consider themselves "strong" Republicans, 23 percent of the national sample said they'd choose Romney if the primaries or caucuses were today, and 19 percent said Huckabee.
Of Independents who "lean" right, 27 percent would choose Romney, and 16 percent would choose Huckabee. Amidst those who self-identified as "not strongly" affiliated with the GOP, 29 percent would support Paul if the primaries or caucuses were today. Thirteen percent would pick Gingrich, and 14 percent weren't sure.
Iowa Sample: The telephone survey was conducted April 4-11. The national poll included 352 respondents from Iowa; the margin of error for the Iowa sample was plus or minus 5.2 percent.
The national sample: included 867 Americans, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.
Republican primary voters at this early stage of the game now give billionaire developer Donald Trump the edge over presumptive favorites Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in the race to be the GOP’s presidential nominee in 2012.....
......Polls this early in the process really don’t tell much more than who has the highest name recognition, Washington Examiner political analyst Michael Barone points out in a new column assessing Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour’s decision not to seek the Republican nomination. “Voters will know far more about the Republican nominee in fall 2012 than they know now about any contender,” he explains.If the 2012 Republican Primary for President were held today would you vote for Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Donald Trump, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich or Mitch Daniels?
The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on April 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.The full story is HERE.
Romney's even holding off Trump with the birther base that has been so important to Trump's support in a lot of our other polling. 43% of Nevada Republicans think Barack Obama was not born in the United States and with those folks Romney gets 25% to Trump's 19%. To give you an idea of how important this movement is/was to Trump's bid he's at only 6% with GOP voters who think Obama was born in the country, putting him in last place of the Republicans we tested.Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure:
PPP surveyed 300 Nevada Democratic primary voters and 300 Republican primary voters from April 21st to 24th. The margin of error for each survey is +/-5.7%.Full Story HERE.
Under PPP, the Chinese economy will expand from $11.2 trillion this year to $19 trillion in 2016. Meanwhile the size of the U.S. economy will rise from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion. That would take America's share of the world output down to 17.7%, the lowest in modern times. China's would reach 18%, and rising.
Just 10 years ago, the U.S. economy was three times the size of China's.
Victor Cha, senior adviser on Asian affairs at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me China's neighbors in Asia are already waking up to the dangers. "The region is overwhelmingly looking to the U.S. in a way that it hasn't done in the past," he said. "They see the U.S. as a counterweight to China. They also see American hegemony over the last half-century as fairly benign. In China they see the rise of an economic power that is not benevolent, that can be predatory. They don't see it as a benign hegemony."
The rise of China, and the relative decline of America, is the biggest story of our time. You can see its implications everywhere, from shuttered factories in the Midwest to soaring costs of oil and other commodities. Last fall, when I attended a conference in London about agricultural investment, I was struck by the number of people there who told stories about Chinese interests snapping up farmland and foodstuff supplies — from South America to China and elsewhere.
PPP surveyed 491 Nevada voters from April 21st to 24th. The margin of error for theThe full story HERE.
survey is +/-4.4%.
Trump is completely toxic to independent voters. His favorability with them in Nevada is 35/57, in Iowa it's 29/58, in New Hampshire it's 23/63, and in North Carolina it's 28/61. His recent antics have ingratiated him to a meaningful chunk of the far right Republican base, but he's completely turned off the folks in the center whose votes often determine who comes out on top in Presidential contests......Favorable/Unfavorable: (Republicans)
......If Trump's goal was to get a lot of attention this month he's certainly succeeded. If his goal is really to get elected President it was an utter failure.
To put Trump's numbers into some context he is less popular than Sarah Palin in all four of these states....The full story is here.
I read Scharlott's piece. It contains lots of innuendo and some widely-circulated Photoshopped pictures. What is missing from his investigation: facts.
One of my favorite passages is about a picture where Palin appears pregnant. Scharlott presents the original image, and then one with changes to the light balance. She still looks pregnant in the second picture. But he writes "Palin appears to be wearing some sort of pad strapped around her midsection; her lower belly, where a fetus would normally reside, seems flat" This is total fantasy.
But who needs facts? When you don't have the goods to support your ideas, just start bashing the media for not digging them up. (Sarah Palin does this all the time.) Scharlott goes on about how the media didn't do a good job debunking the rumor. It was, he concludes, "a spiral of silence."
But, of course, there was no silence spiral. The journalists, including me, who covered Palin at the time believed she was pregnant because she was pregnant. Even before the announcement, she seemed to be putting on weight. She wore baggy jackets and scarves. Before the announcement, she acted nervous when photographers tried to take her picture. Later on, her face filled out. Her fingers swelled. She had a noticeable belly. And it wasn't made out of foam.
"A trim woman simply can’t hide a fetus in her seventh month of pregnancy, and Palin in no way looks four and a half weeks away from giving birth to a 6 pound baby," Sharlott writes. Actually, women carry babies all kinds of different ways. Some women gain less than 20 pounds. Has this man never seen "I didn't know I was pregnant" on TLC?
Palin also ran all the time at the gym in Juneau. People I know saw her on the treadmill sweating in workout clothes. She had a belly. I repeat: she had a real pregnant belly. Are you going to tell me she was wearing a prosthetic abdomen on the treadmill?
After the birth, we interviewed her doctor who talked about it. Why would the doctor lie for her? That's right. She wouldn't.
This April 13, 2008 picture of a clearly pregnant Palin is from an interview with KTVA reporter Andrea Gusty (click for full size):
Little has changed since PPP polled the presidential race in North Carolina last month. Tar Heels are split on President Obama’s job performance, with 49% approving and 48% disapproving, roughly identical to last month’s 48-46 spread. Accordingly, the president barely noses ahead of his two leading potential challengers, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure:
Obama tops Huckabee, 48-47, essentially the same as the 45-45 tie in the March poll. The president beats Romney, 47-44, also very similar to March’s 44-42 margin; Newt Gingrich, 49-45 (47-42); Sarah Palin, 52-40 (51-40); and Donald Trump, 51-39. This is the first time Trump has been tested.
PPP surveyed 507 North Carolina voters from April 14th to 17th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%.To view the crosstabs click the PPP icon below:
West Virginia marks the first state where we've found Donald Trump leading the GOP Presidential field- he gets 24% there, tying him at the top with Mike Huckabee. Sarah Palin is third with 13%, followed by Mitt Romney at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, and Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 3%.Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure:
We polled the Republican race in West Virginia in January too. With Trump now in the picture Huckabee is down 4 points from his standing on that previous poll, Palin has dropped 10 points, and Gingrich has fallen 8 points. Romney is actually up a point- you have to wonder if a Trump candidacy could actually end up being a blessing in disguise for Romney.
PPP surveyed 590 likely West Virginia Democratic primary voters, with a +/-4.0%margin of error, and 274 likely Republican primary voters, with a +/-5.9% margin of error, from April 21st to 24th.Full Story here.
Republicans may be ready for a fling with Donald Trump, but a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows they have reservations about installing him in the White House.
The real estate developer and reality TV star, who scores at the top in polls of the GOP field these days, falls to fourth when Republicans are asked to rate who among the contenders would be a “good” or “great” president in office.
Views already are polarized about President Obama and some major Republican candidates for 2012:
Source: USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of 1,013 adults. April 20-23. Margin of error +/-4 percentage points.
Among Republicans, those who were asked who they thought the eventual 2012 Republican nominee would be, regardless of the one they currently supported, named Mitt Romney most frequently—by 21.4% of respondents. The second most-frequently named was Mike Hukabee, with 8.3%--however, 47.4% said they weren’t sure.Thinking ahead to the 2012 Presidential election, who would you vote for as your FIRST CHOICE to be the next Republican nominee for President if the primary election were held today?
These results come from 589 Republicans and Republican leaners in SC taken between April 17-23, 2011 who are also registered to vote and have a margin of error of +/- 4.04% at the 95% confidence level.The crosstabs can be viewed here as well as several more questions.
Join us in an on-air frank discussion about the future of our country, and the steps conservatives will need to take in order to get our economy back on track. Mike Sage, the host of the weekly MittRomneyRadio program, is a prolific writer on conservative politics and other contemporary topics, award-winning public speaker, equities trader, and marketing consultant.The full story is HERE.
"I will not be a candidate for president next year. This has been a difficult, personal decision, and I am very grateful to my family for their total support of my going forward, had that been what I decided.
"Hundreds of people have encouraged me to run and offered both to give and raise money for a presidential campaign. Many volunteers have organized events in support of my pursuing the race. Some have dedicated virtually full time to setting up preliminary organizations in critical, early states and to helping plan what has been several months of intensive activity.
"I greatly appreciate each and every one of them and all their outstanding efforts. If I have disappointed any of them in this decision, I sincerely regret it.
"A candidate for president today is embracing a ten-year commitment to an all-consuming effort, to the virtual exclusion of all else. His (or her) supporters expect and deserve no less than absolute fire in the belly from their candidate. I cannot offer that with certainty, and total certainty is required.
"This decision means I will continue my job as Governor of Mississippi, my role in the Republican Governors Association and my efforts to elect a new Republican president in 2012, as the stakes for the nation require that effort to be successful."
The full story is here.
The massive overnight jailbreak in Afghanistan's second-largest city serves as a reminder of the Afghan government's continuing weakness in the south, despite an influx of international troops, funding and advisers. Kandahar city, in particular, has been a focus of the international effort to establish a strong Afghan government presence in former Taliban strongholds.