Monday, April 25, 2011

ARG SC Poll: Romney Runs Strong! Trails Huck By 2

Mike Huckabee and a surprisingly strong Mitt Romney are the leading candidates in the South Carolina 2012 GOP primary according to a new ARG poll released today. Huckabee leads Romney by a scant 2%, in a state many pundits view as a must-win for the Fox News star should he consider another run in 2012. Huck leads overall with 20%, Romney is second at 18%. With a margin of error of 4%, the state is a "jump ball" between the former 2008 GOP rivals. Media stars Donald Trump and Sarah Palin round out the top four spots, with 13% and 10% respectively.
Huckabee gains the most support from Republicans overall and those identified at Tea Party supporters, placing first with 23% and 18% with each group. Romney runs second with the GOP at 16% and third with the Tea Party at 12%. Trump scores second with the Tea Party – at 16%, which drives his overalll GOP score. Palin's support is steady at 10% accross all groups.
South Carolina is not currently viewed as being a strong state for Romney in 2012. The state, with a strong Evangelical base, is considered by many to be a Huckabee strong hold. With fellow Sothern Governor, Mississippi’s Haley Barbour considering a run, the Palmetto State was not being looked at as fertile ground for Romney. However, the ARG poll shows Romney running very competitively across the board and Barbour posting a soggy 2% level of support overall. Palin was at one time thought to be a strong player in South Carolina, with a high percentage of residents being military veterans and armed services families. Her performance in this poll reflects a significant decline in support she has also seen on the nation level.
Romney does extremely well with Independent voters and those who are definitely going to vote.  South Carolina has an open primary and Romney garners 26% of the Indie voters to Huckabee’s 11%. Both men are tied with those who are definite to vote at 19%.  Of those who will probably vote, Huckabee leads Romney 25% to 16%.
While polls this early in the election cycle are subject to wild fluctuations, today’s numbers do poke holes in the “conventional wisdom” the South is Huckabee territory where Romney can’t run. Clearly, as in the recent numbers from Iowa, Mitt Romney is running a lot stronger than assumed.


BOSMAN said...

Romney within striking distance to Huckabee in SC!

TIED with Huck on those who are "Definitely" voting!

If Huckabee doesn't run, HaHaHaHa!!!!

Doug NYC GOP said...

I'd like to see how Craig/Sybil spins these numbers.

marK said...


Don't get too cocky. ARG doesn't have the best of reputations. All pollsters drop some clunkers now and again, but ARG seems to make a habit of it.

Yes, this is great news for Romney, especially when you consider that Mitt is still sailing strong in NH and NV.

Perhaps the biggest upside of this poll is that if it portends a general softening of Huckabee's numbers, it is going to put pressure upon Mike to commit one way or the other sooner than he would want to.

larry said...

This race could be over before it starts.

Now even Barbour is not running. Romney will be hard to stop.

Doug NYC GOP said...


Thanks for keeping us grounded, which is why I made sure to make a point of fluctuations in polling in my final paragraph.

I just like it because it goes against the the popular belief Romney is dead in South Carolina.

Doug NYC GOP said...

Thanks for the added info grid!

Anonymous said...

This has got to make Huck a little nervous, with Romney nipping at the heels. Don't quit your day job just yet, Huck!


Ann said...

This really is good news.

With results showing it close here and in Iowa as well, Mitt Romney could be in position for a big win early.

Anonymous said...

I thought Romney wasn't supposed to do well in the south?


ConMan said...

This and the Winthrop poll today put Romney in good shape in SC.

He could win the first 5 races!