Thursday, April 28, 2011

Hawkeye Poll: Romney on top Nationally, Huckabee leads Romney by 1% in Iowa

Romney and Huckabee are frontrunners among Iowa Republicans

Of Republicans in Iowa, 24 percent would choose Romney, and 23 percent would choose Huckabee.

Nationally, Romney received the most support among Republicans (17 percent), just slightly more than Huckabee's 16 percent. Sixteen percent of Republicans were not sure which candidate they would choose if primaries or caucuses were today.

Among respondents who consider themselves "strong" Republicans, 23 percent of the national sample said they'd choose Romney if the primaries or caucuses were today, and 19 percent said Huckabee.

Of Independents who "lean" right, 27 percent would choose Romney, and 16 percent would choose Huckabee. Amidst those who self-identified as "not strongly" affiliated with the GOP, 29 percent would support Paul if the primaries or caucuses were today. Thirteen percent would pick Gingrich, and 14 percent weren't sure.
IOWA Results: (ALL Iowans) [ Republicans ONLY]

Mike Huckabee (16%) [23%]
Mitt Romney (15%) [24%]
Sarah Palin (10%) [15%]
Tim Pawlenty (5%) [8%]
Newt Gingrich (4%) [9%]
Michele Bachmann (3%) [0%]
Ron Paul (2%) [2%]
Mitch Daniels (0%) [0%]
Haley Barbour (0%) [1%]
Someone else (26%) [11%]
Don't know (11%) [8%]

NATIONAL Results: Republican (Strong Republican) [Independent: Leaning Republican]

Mitt Romney 17% (23) [27]
Mike Huckabee 16% (19) [16]
Ron Paul 13% (3) [2]
Sarah Palin 11% (11) [8]
Newt Gingrich 9% (6) [5]
Michele Bachmann 3% (4) [6]
Tim Pawlenty 3% (3) [3]
Haley Barbour 2% (1) [0]
Mitch Daniels 1% (2) [0]
Someone else 10% (9) [7]
Don't know 16% (17) [26]
Iowa Sample: The telephone survey was conducted April 4-11. The national poll included 352 respondents from Iowa; the margin of error for the Iowa sample was plus or minus 5.2 percent.

The national sample: included 867 Americans, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.

NOTE: This had to be the most confusing poll I've ever read. The data was all over the place.

The full story is here.
The crosstabs can be viewed here.


BOSMAN said...

According to this poll, ROMNEY LEADS IN IOWA!

If he leads with REPUBLICANS, HE LEADS in the CAUCUS!



GetReal said...


Revolution 2010 said...

You're right Bos.

Take a look at the crosstabs and read their analysis. It reads like a Chinese puzzle.