Romney will win Iowa and New Hampshire, but will still lose South Carolina. He will go on to win the Republican nomination rather quickly though. He will beat Obama but only after a long hard fight.A couple of weeks ago I was patting myself on the back at how close I thought I was. Yes, Romney "tied" Santorum, but my SC pick was spot on. And then came the Florida and Nevada wins for Romney.
Nevertheless, I grossly underestimated the tenacity of the anti-Romney vote. I would have never dreamed that Romney would have lost in Minnesota or that he would be getting beat bad in Michigan. Unless Romney can come back in Michigan (it may not matter even if he does), we are heading to a long drawn-out fight that could result in a brokered convention.
This would be a disastrous situation for the GOP.
First, the last polling I have saw had both Santorum and Romney losing to Obama by 8 points. I wonder what that will look like after another four or five months of constant attack ads?
Second, Romney's strategy always depended on quickly winning the nomination so he could go straight to the general election. Now, as evidenced by Mitt's CPAC speech, he is going to have to dish out the red meat if he wants to hang on to the nomination. The perpetual catch-22 scenario of the GOP is that the more you please Republican primary voters, the more you drive away general election voters.
Lastly, Talk Radio will officially own the GOP. There is nothing that Rush Limbaugh wants more than a perpetual state of chaos for him to push his fear-mongering. Romney is already being treated as the liberal bogeyman. A drawn-out race will give Talk Radio a chance "to fight for conservative principles."
I have said this before but it needs repeating: there has always been a sense of injustice with a Romney victory. He really doesn't represent what the Republican party has become. The modern GOP is not the party of Lincoln, Roosevelt, and Eisenhower. It is the party Limbaugh, Levin, and Palin. A brokered convention is only going to let those forces thrive.
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21 comments:
"Second, Romney's strategy always depended on quickly winning the nomination"
Wrong.
I can tell you from my inside knowledge in the Romney campaign that the strategy has always been the long haul. Getting the MOST delegates.
Romney has a lot of chits out there still to collect. He endorsed twice as many candidates as the other candidates and had almost twice the amount of winners.
there was a lot of emphasis as well on individual statewide contests. Super delegates will come from these groups. These folks will yield a lot of influence if it comes down to a brokered convention.
Mitt has covered ALL THE BASES!
I still am in disbelief that someone like Santorum can be taken seriously as a contender against Obama. I have lost all respect for the GOP.
I agree with Bosman here. Romney's plan has always been the longhaul race. When it looked like he could sow it up in 5 states, he tried. But as you stated, Pablo, the ABR voter is tenacious.
Certainly, a brokered convention is not party uniting. Romney may still win in a brokered convention. It certainly won't be Palin or Gingrich. Santorum would definitely be in the mix as well as a number of others.
But it would mean another 4 years of Obama. We may still get it.
If it goes to a brokered convention, I can tell you where Paul's delegates definitely WON'T GO. That's to Santorum and Gingrich.
This would do irreparable harm to the GOP. It shows our party is split and will never unite. Palin should step off her soap box, and go raise her family. Her opinion is no longer needed nor valuable.
The forces of Limbaugh, Levin, and Palin would send the GOP into the political wilderness for decades. The tent would be only for them and the GOP would be relegated to the past. It would be tragic. In an attempt to win a battle we would loose the war.
The new PPP poll is COOKED.
48% of the respondents were Evangelicals in a state where they only represent 27% of the population.
So PPP over COOKED this polled with Evangelicals by 21%. And Angry Rick has a 14% lead in the poll.
Bottom line Mitt Romney leads in Michigan, for REAL
Publius
I agree with you completely. I find it interesting that Rush changed his definition of conservatism from 2008 to 2012 to suit his agenda of 4 more years of Obama.
I wish people would wake up and see how much money Rush,Levin,Hannity,Palin,FOX News and Beck have made under the Obama administration.
While the American people get strangled with 4 more years of Obama policies..these right wing propagandists will be laughing all the way to the bank!These are the people who will profit from 4 more years of Obama,so why would they want to run the best GOP candidate who could potentially defeat Obama?
What a brokered convention will do is deplete the GOP's financial resources for the general election run against Obama and Obama will probably win a second term.
Pablo’s concerns are reasonable and well stated, but speculative. Thanks, Bosman, for your apt correction at 11:44 am. Here are two additional points to consider:
(1) In a matter of months Limbaugh & Co. have gyrated from Perry to Gingrich to Santorum (with a quick stopover at Cain). But, so far, the forces of Anybody-But-Romney have utterly failed. Their track record of picking the winner is abysmal. Step back for a minute, and the ABR crowd looks like petulant adolescents stamping their feet in rage at their parents (derided as “the establishment”). Santorum is their latest fling because he’s the last guy on stage who hasn’t had multiple adulterous affairs and isn’t Romney. (Paul is in a class by himself.) Give Santorum time. He’s not executive material, is not ready for the presidency, and that will become clear soon enough.
(2) The “brokered convention” is a red herring. Ask who benefits from a divided GOP in Tampa, with no presidential candidate and no unified platform; and you’ll quickly see why a brokered convention is Obama’s dream. Long before that disaster would occur, I’ve always assumed that the Party’s powerbrokers in D.C. would inform the two GOP influence-peddlers in the race—Gingrich and Santorum—that, if they threaten to destroy Republicans’ chances in the fall, they might as well take up farming as try to lobby GOP congress members for the foreseeable future. Money talks. Those Fox News gigs and occasional book deals are peanuts compared to the corporate “consultant” contracts that both men would be losing by insisting on blowing up the convention.
A brokered convention would be the end of the republican party.
It would be the end of a shot at beating Obama. No question in my mind. These antics are killing us. This primary is so much baloney.
-Martha
Hopefully it won't come to that...and I have to admit I have lost a lot of faith in the polls this time around..
Time and again they have either been wrong or so volatile that they changed over night.
If it goes to a brokered convention, then it is just a step back to the smoke filled rooms. And less representation from rank and file people as to who the nominee.
That might be fine for movers and shakers like Palin and Limbaugh and the rest of those blowhards, but for voters it is a loss of power.
very interesting. thank you.
"The forces of Limbaugh, Levin, and Palin would send the GOP into the political wilderness for decades." This is just more political paranoia and melting down.
I myself personally, Hope the GOP does come apart at the seems and destroys itself. It has not stood for true conservative values in decades. Time for a new political alignment based on Liberty, Freedom and the Constitution.
Anonymous (at 6:46 pm): Here's a suggestion. Go out and start your own party, then. If you want to bail, fine. But don't take down the whole Republican Party with you. It was founded in the age of Lincoln, who by no stretch of the imagination would be deemed conservative enough today.
The Conservative Party has a presence in many states. Register as a Conservative and vote with that party. The idiotic urge to destroy the Republican Party from within is suicidal. If I WERE a Democrat, your sentiments would be music to my ears.
A brokered convention is becoming more of a reality each day. It is clear that many in the GOP, such as Palin, Limbaugh, Hannity and others would love one to prove their worth. And Sarah knows that is her only shot.
But the real danger is Ron Paul. He openly admits his strategy is to amass delegates. There are reports that he got 100% of the delegates in some Colorado precincts even though he came in third place in those precincts. His people run as delegates, hoping that no one will win enough delegates to win outright on the first ballot.
Delegates are then released and just watch how many votes RP would get in a second round.
People need to run as delegates th thwart this subversive attempt. And they need to spread the word.
Remember that early polls are used to drive the news. The media has to have something to talk about. The only polls that really matter are those just days before the vote.
The delegates in CO were not bound and I know of two precincts where Santorum won, but they voted for Mitt Romney delegates to the state convention. The Santorum supporters were either too busy or too lazy to go to the state convention. Didn't see any Paul supporters in my neck of the woods.
"I know of two precincts where Santorum won, but they voted for Mitt Romney delegates" Two precincts??? Only 2? I know of two precincts in my state that voted for candidate X and another two precincts that voted for candidate Y, but that does not mean they won any delegates.
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