While we do not know where things will unfold next exactly, it was not a good week for Mr. Romney in many respects, but it was not a bad week either in many respects. In short, it was a double edge sword for him. He lost a bit of support and momentum, but his opponents are divided (at least for now.) On the one hand it means he is now projected to win more CD delegates than before, but on the other, as things currently stand, it will be more challenging to win as many statewide delegates in many states because now both Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich are on track to crack statewide thresholds. On the regional level, while Mr. Romney lost delegates and or projected delegates in both the West and Northeast, his popularity in close to 40% in both regions and he should still clear 55% of the delegates in those two regions. In the rest of the country which elects at least 2 in 5 elected delegates, Mr. Romney is less than 33% of the popular vote and is projected to win less than 40% of the delegates. As Doug suggested earlier, it was a decent week in the South for Mr. Romney. His popular vote remained steady unlike the rest of the country and he is now in first place in the South mainly due to the Gingrich collapse. Mr. Santorum gained almost 100 delegates in the Midwest and thus he is now in first place in one region of the country in terms of both popularity and projected delegates.
All in all Mr. Romney slips slightly to 955 delegates (45% of the elected delegates.) Mr. Santorum jumps to 511 (more than double last week’s total.) Mr. Gingrich loses more than 200 to sit at 499. He benefits with delegate efficiency. And Dr. Paul loses a few or so to sit at 156. So on the surface of it, we are a little closer to a brokerage Convention, but it is still too early to predict such. The Gingrich vote will be critical in the weeks to come with regards to seeing how things unfold. Note, if we do have a brokerage convention, I doubt it will be messy. There would be only two ballots and I doubt somebody off the street will save the day. We are essentially stuck with the candidates we have.
Please check us out on Facebook and If you like what you see, please "Like" us. You can find us here.