Tuesday, May 17, 2011
2012: The Year Of The OLD GUYS (UPDATE 2)
"Change We Can Believe In." That's what Barack Obama promised. We got the change alright but is it change we want to believe in?
Throughout his campaign, there was this NEW KID on the block mentality that seemed to resonate with American voters. "I Like What He Says.", He Makes Me Feel Good.", "He's refreshing.", "He's Not Part Of The Old Boy Network." All of these sentiments were rebuked by his detractors with, "What do We Know About Him?", "He Has No Experience."
After 2 years of President Obama and 2 more to go, the LAST THING voters will be looking for in 2012 is, YOUTH, INEXPERIENCE, and NEW FACES. Which leads me to my Nostradamus moment. 2012 will be The Year Of The Old Guys.
If your not over 60, Forget it!
I liken it to that old pair of sneakers, that old sweatshirt, that old pair of slacks. All those worn out comfortable things that you probably have been urged by many of your friends to throw out, but you just can't. When things get tough, when you want to unwind, when you want to feel comfortable, you resort to these faithful hold-offs from your past because they make you feel good. No Surprises.
The last thing folks will want in 2012 is something else new. You can thank Obama for that.
So for 2012, OLD IS IN and OLD IS NEW. Sorry Sarah and Mike, you have a few years to go.
I believe that Mitt Romney is running already. Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich will also jump into the mix. These 3 will emerge as the candidates to beat in 2012. They're like those old sneakers that I mentioned above. They're predictable. They're comfortable. They're worn and have been around. NO SURPRISES. And that's exactly what voters will want.
Clarus Poll supports my "OLD GUY" theory:
KNOWN NAME OR NEW FACE: (Asked after the nomination trial heat and asked only of self-identified Republicans (and independents who say they lean Republican) N=415: “Looking ahead to 2012, do you think the Republican Party should nominate a candidate for president who is already well known nationally or do you think the party should nominate a new face?”)
Nominate well-known candidate 61%
Nominate new face 28
Don’t know/no answer 11
Update 1: (March 19, 2011)
Well, since this was posted last March, Gingrich has indicated he is seriously considering a run this time. The youngsters Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee are indicating they may sit this one out.
What of Rudy Giuliani? I still think he will run. He's sniffing around NH lately and has learned that there is no benefit from jumping in early. Especially if your a known commodity.
Well since Update 1, Gingrich is in, Pence, Thune, Barbour, Trump, and Huckabee are out. Ron Paul and old guy for sure is in. I don't believe Palin will run for the same reason as Huckabee. The money is too good and there is no guarantee that she would get the nomination or win.
As to Rudy, he's still sniffing around NH and I believe will get in the race. Huntsman, Bachmann, Pawlenty, and ?, might as well sit this one out. They were just BORN TO LATE to make any impact in this race. Daniels on the other hand is 62. His problem is that NO ONE knows who he is and there is NO COMFORT zone with him.
Come on now let's all say in unison, just to see how it sounds. Ready? 1.....2.....3......PRESIDENT ROMNEY!