Saturday, March 19, 2011

2012: The Year Of The OLD GUYS

The following was my very first post at ROS back in March of 2010.  I can remember the comments from some asking me what I was smoking:

"Change We Can Believe In." That's what Barack Obama promised. We got the change alright but is it change we want to believe in?

Throughout his campaign, there was this NEW KID on the block mentality that seemed to resonate with American voters. "I Like What He Says.", He Makes Me Feel Good.", "He's refreshing.", "He's Not Part Of The Old Boy Network." All of these sentiments were rebuked by his detractors with, "What do We Know About Him?", "He Has No Experience."

After 2 years of President Obama and 2 more to go, the LAST THING voters will be looking for in 2012 is, YOUTH, INEXPERIENCE, and NEW FACES. Which leads me to my Nostradamus moment. 2012 will be The Year Of The Old Guys.

If your not over 60, Forget it!

I liken it to that old pair of sneakers, that old sweatshirt, that old pair of slacks. All those worn out comfortable things that you probably have been urged by many of your friends to throw out, but you just can't. When things get tough, when you want to unwind, when you want to feel comfortable, you resort to these faithful hold-offs from your past because they make you feel good. No Surprises.

The last thing folks will want in 2012 is something else new. You can thank Obama for that.

So for 2012, OLD IS IN and OLD IS NEW. Sorry Sarah and Mike, you have a few years to go.

I believe that Mitt Romney is running already. Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich will also jump into the mix. These 3 will emerge as the candidates to beat in 2012.  They're like those old sneakers that I mentioned above. They're predictable. They're comfortable. They're worn and have been around. NO SURPRISES. And that's exactly what voters will want.

This Clarus Poll supports my "OLD GUY" theory:

KNOWN NAME OR NEW FACE: (Asked after the nomination trial heat and asked only of self-identified Republicans (and independents who say they lean Republican) N=415: “Looking ahead to 2012, do you think the Republican Party should nominate a candidate for president who is already well known nationally or do you think the party should nominate a new face?”)

Nominate well-known candidate 61%
Nominate new face 28
Don’t know/no answer 11 

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Well, since this was posted last March, Gingrich has indicated he is seriously considering a run this time. The youngsters Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee are indicating they may sit this one out.

What of Rudy Giuliani? I still think he will run. He's sniffing around NH lately and has learned that there is no benefit from jumping in early. Especially if your a known commodity.

15 comments:

The Obuminator said...

You may be right about a boycott on youth & inexperience, but Rudy Giuliani running in 2012?
That might be a stretch.

Jonathan said...

Well, Mitch Daniels is over 60 and definitely not inexperienced so I guess there's hope.

Anonymous said...

How old is Haley Barbour? Is he in the Senior's Club?

Jonathan said...

Anonymous:

Governor Barbour is 63 so he is a fully-fledge member of the Old Guy's Club.

Anonymous said...

"How old is Haley Barbour? Is he in the Senior's Club?"


I think you may be missing Bos's point.

OLD and a WELL KNOWN NAME already on a national level.

zeke

Anonymous said...

Bosman,

I think you're putting to much faith in the voters. Most are idiots. To vote for someone old, wise, and experienced is so un-MTV.

zappo said...

There is no way Giuliani is running.
BTW, What are you smoking?

Jack said...

Whoever eventually becomes the GOP nominee, I'm sure it will have been determined in a more complicated fashion than your simple theory.

I mean, if you're correct, we might as well all go home.

Socrates said...

Jack said...

Whoever eventually becomes the GOP nominee, I'm sure it will have been determined in a more complicated fashion than your simple theory.

I mean, if you're correct, we might as well all go home.

===============

Life is only as complicated as one makes it.

Revolution 2010 said...

It would be nice if it came down to those 3.
Can you say President Romney?

Granny T said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Granny T said...

Huckabee is still saying he is "very seriously considering" running again - so don't count on his sitting this one out.

Matt Y. said...

I hate that we are the party of stodgy old guys. No wonder young people prefer Democrats.

Granny T said...

I don't go along with the "old guy" theory. Gingrich is an "old guy" that polls worse than the "young guy" Huckabee in practically every poll out there.

Huckabee is leading in over half of the 34 states that have been polled (1st place in 17 states plus tied for 1st in two others) - he leads in the Real Clear Politics averaging for the national polls - and is only 0.7 points behind Romney in the national head to head against Obama polling averages.

IMO Huckabee will be announcing he's running sometime mid to late summer. Huck Force is getting ready now - so we can help him be successful even with a late start. Grassroots in action even though our leader hasn't totally decided yet. :)

Ann said...

As long as Romney is the chosen Old Guy, I'll be happy.