1 Later states, after April 1, where Romney should do well will allocate delegates on a Winner Take All ( WTA ) basis.
2. States where Perry or Bachmann or Romney fight one another competitively, with primaries before April 1,will allocate delegates on a PROPORTIONAL basis.
Now consider this.....EVERY SOUTHERN STATE, except Arkansas and No Carolina, will allocate PROPORTIONALLY.
Later Winner Take All states include California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Washington.
If Romney wins the likely WTA states like Massachusetts and New York, he collects 700- 800 delegates. He needs 400 more from the Proportional states or about 35 % of the proportionally allocated delegates. Presuming he does better than that in Arizona, Nevada, Illinois, Michigan, Vermont and Wyoming, he picks up another 250 delegates by proportion, giving him over 1100 delegates. He thus needs about 150 more delegates from the remaining 800 delegates to be allocated proportionally or about 15 % in the proportional state primaries.
Do the math. The 1300 + delegates before April 1 have , by law, to be allocated proportionally. Additional candidates just squeeze this pie into multiple pieces. But MONEY and ORGANIZATION in the WTA states after April 1....delivers the nomination and these states are predominately Moderate.
By the way, with no Democrat Primary competition in 2012, you need to look at OPEN primaries and the effect of Ron Paul and Cross Over Dems on the pre April 1, PROPORTIONAL allocation...like Alabama-Michigan -Mississippi -Missouri -So. Carolina - Tennessee - Texas - Virginia and Wisconsin.
So to me, the math for a Romney win is pretty convincing and his strategy is almost built around the RNC changes. it would never have worked in 2008 but it works today
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