Tuesday, August 16, 2011


Some of you should take the time to read thoughtful analyses by folks like Dana Houle and his analysis of the effect of the RNC's changes in the primary delegate allocation posted on the FHQ web site . I'll summarize for you as follows:

1 Later states, after April 1, where Romney should do well will allocate delegates on a Winner Take All ( WTA ) basis.

2. States where Perry or Bachmann or Romney fight one another competitively, with primaries before April 1,will allocate delegates on a PROPORTIONAL basis.

Now consider this.....EVERY SOUTHERN STATE, except Arkansas and No Carolina, will allocate PROPORTIONALLY.

Later Winner Take All states include California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Washington.

If Romney wins the likely WTA states like Massachusetts and New York, he collects 700- 800 delegates. He needs 400 more from the Proportional states or about 35 % of the proportionally allocated delegates. Presuming he does better than that in Arizona, Nevada, Illinois, Michigan, Vermont and Wyoming, he picks up another 250 delegates by proportion, giving him over 1100 delegates. He thus needs about 150 more delegates from the remaining 800 delegates to be allocated proportionally or about 15 % in the proportional state primaries.

Do the math. The 1300 + delegates before April 1 have , by law, to be allocated proportionally. Additional candidates just squeeze this pie into multiple pieces. But MONEY and ORGANIZATION in the WTA states after April 1....delivers the nomination and these states are predominately Moderate.

By the way, with no Democrat Primary competition in 2012, you need to look at OPEN primaries and the effect of Ron Paul and Cross Over Dems on the pre April 1, PROPORTIONAL allocation...like Alabama-Michigan -Mississippi -Missouri -So. Carolina - Tennessee - Texas - Virginia and Wisconsin.

So to me, the math for a Romney win is pretty convincing and his strategy is almost built around the RNC changes. it would never have worked in 2008 but it works today


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Anonymous said...

thank you craig:) great info!

Closer To Home said...

You have to think Romney has accounted for this schedule already. By keeping enough money in reserve (both contributions and his own), he can flood the airwaves when he needs victories to sustain momentum, and hold on until April.

One thing that will be problematic in 2012, which wasn't in 2008, is caucuses. It seems like TPs and EVs could flood a caucus if organized.

Anonymous said...

Craig thanks for this I needed it today. Got to remember its the long haul that wins this

Anonymous said...

Yes, thanks for the info, Craig.


Anonymous said...

I find it hard to believe that anyone will accuse Romney of not being able to do the math, and of not planning ahead. Obviously, his plans do not always work out the way he desires, but he is a planning kind of guy.