Tuesday, August 30, 2011

If Perry leads in National Polls and Romney State-Wide Polls, who is really in the lead?

For the past couple of weeks, Rick Perry has been leading in the National Polls, most recently CNN. While Mitt Romney seems to continue to lead many of the state Polls for example, NH (1, 2), Michigan (1, 2), Florida (1, 2) , and Nevada (1, 2) as well as in most of the head-to-head match-ups with President Obama. I realize to lead in both national and statewide polls is ideal, but is it necessary for the nomination?

National polls seem to rely more upon the states with the most Republicans for their data. Which means that states with fewer Republicans may not be as well represented in those national polls. I would think that polls of specific states would give a more realistic view of who will capture the delegates of that particular state. And after all, isn't that the name of the game.

So if Romney holds on to his big leads in: NH, NV, FL, and MI and wins those primaries as a start, Does being the leader in National polls really matter?

So if you were Romney or Perry and could only lead in either statewide or national polls, which would you want? What are your thoughts?


Anonymous said...

I don't see either lead as being particularly important right now. If Rick Perry remains the national leader going into January, he will pick up support in all of the states. On the other hand, if he can't put together organization in these states and make use of his national lead, he'll fade.

All candidates have weaknesses, and Mitt Romney's being the frontrunner for so long has caused people to focus on his weaknesses more than on others' weaknesses. As a result, people have been slow to commit to him.

While people are waiting, they've been chasing "the next big thing." What all of these "next big thing" candidates have in common is that they've faded after a little time in the spotlight. Donald Trump parlayed attention over Obama's birth certificate into a chance to talk about trade and get a boost. Herman Cain parlayed a good performance in one debate into a boost that made him appear to be the guy who would challenge Mitt Romney. Michele Bachmann got attention in one debate and was suddenly the challenge for Mr. Romney.

Rick Perry is enjoying his moment in the sun. His sun is shining a little brighter than that of the other "next big thing" candidates because he has executive experience in elected office. He at least has the on-paper qualifications to be a frontrunner, so his boost is higher and is lasting a little longer. Whether his boost can last through his first debate remains to be seen.

A big challenge for Rick Perry will be stopping Michele Bachmann in Iowa. On one hand, he needs to take her supporters in order to win Iowa. On the other hand, if he appears to be mean to her, he'll face a backlash. A huge danger will be that Michele Bachmann wins the Iowa caucuses and Mitt Romney comes in second. If Rick Perry falls to third in Iowa, he will lose a tremendous amount of momentum.

The big disaster for Rick Perry would be a two thirds and a fourth in the first three contests. I'm not sure who is in second place in Nevada, but if Rick Perry comes in third in the Nevada caucuses and in the Iowa caucuses, he will look weak. He might do as poorly as fourth in New Hampshire anyway, and two third place finishes before New Hampshire would make that outcome more likely. While I think early state momentum is stupid for the voters to follow, the voters seem intent on this stupidity. At this point, South Carolina is a "do or die" state, and South Carolina wants to keep their string of successes intact. If they see Rick Perry as already fading badly, they may abandon him. Even with a win in South Carolina, he'd be hurting if he then lost in Florida.

craigs said...

I am really looking forward to the lead up to Florida. Romney is already ahead of Perry, 28 % to 21 % in the last Mason Dixon poll. Hi margin from April increased from 23 % to 28 %.
I believe a major battle is coming in that primary and Mitt's opponent are hell bent on helping him win. I think Romney will commit a lot of media money in the fall for ad buys emphasizing Perry's social security and medicare comments and Bachmann's " drilling in the Everglades " comment. I think we will see a lot of ads about " Social Security is a Monstrous Lie " and " medicare is Unconstitutional " and " Socia Security is an ILLEGAL Ponzi scheme like Bernie Mdoff's '.
Can't wait and I'm beginning to feel really good about Mitt's chances in Florida

I look for a Perry endorsement by Rick Scott, the Governor, and a Romney endorsement from Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio

Anonymous said...

Craigs, I agree about Florida. Perry is a tailor made opponent to trounce in Florida. I also eagerly await the Florida debates.

If AZ goes early, then Mitt should clean the floor with Perry there too.

Wouldn't it be cool if this were the first election in over 40 years where the winner of the nomination didn't win SC?

BOSMAN said...


Ed Gillespie was just on Fox news and pretty much just said what you are saying in this post.