Thursday, July 21, 2011

ROMNEY LEADS in OHIO

This morning's Quinnipiac Poll has Romney slightly ahead in the Ohio GOP primary and running strongest against Obama.

Romney..........16 %
Palin...............15 %
Bachmann......11 %
Perry.............. 8 %
Cain............... 6 %
Paul............... 5 %
Gingrich........ 4 %
Pawlenty........ 3 %
Santorum...... 2 %

Significantly, Romney is the second choice of Palin and Perry voters.
Romney also runs strongest against Obama

Romney 41 %........Obama 45 % ....... - 4 %
Palin...... 35 %........Obama 51 %........ -16 %
Bachmann 36 %....Obama 49 %........ -13 %
Perry......35 %........ Obama 47 %........ -12 %
The survey was taken from July 12 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,659 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 563 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.
The crosstabs can be viewed HERE.

CraigS

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15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Question is, if Palin runs...she will take back a lot of her support from Bachmann...probably putting Palin in first place in Ohio...

jerseyrepublican

BTW - I think your title is a little misleading...Romney and Palin are in the statistical lead.

Doug NYC GOP said...

Palin could possibly win the GOP battle, but she poses the biggest risk of losing the Obama War.

Poll after poll shows her as the REpublican who loses by the most in the head to heads.

Even a majority of Very Conservative voters in the polls this week don't wan't her to run.
They like her, but don't want her running.

She should take heed.

larry said...

A WIN is a WIN!

Doug NYC GOP said...

LOL - good point Larry. I doubt the other camp would be so generous if the numbers were reversed.

Let the games begin.... :)

Anonymous said...

Actually Larry, it's not a win...it's a dead heat...a statistical tie. Don't let your preferences ruin logical, factual thought.

jerseyrepublican

Doug, I've given up on you...LOL.

Revolution 2012 said...

JR,

If this were an election and the % of votes were:

JR 16%
Doug 15%

Who would win?

Terry said...

JR would win. But Doug would demand a recount.

glenn mercer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

CLAMBAKE

jerseyrepublican

Anonymous said...

Rev you cannot compare an election to a poll because if you could then you could argue that Doug might win. It's called the margin of error for a reason. On the other hand, in you scenario, I might win by a higher margin. But since this is a poll and not an election...they are essentially tied in Ohio, according to Quinnipiac University.

jerseyrepublican

Anonymous said...

i hope people will be wise enough to look ahead at the actual fight against obama.Palin may very well win the gop nomination if she gets in, but Obama will wipe the floor with her. People shouldnt vote on whos the most popular or whos got a great movie and book out. Palin will not defeat obama. Romney has the best chance of beating obama, and as a romney supporter thats not saying much. I fear an obama reelection, and it will be guaranteed 100% should palin get the gop nod.

Anonymous said...

That's ridiculous, almost every Republican...including Palin could beat Obama if the situation on the ground is anything like it is today...or worse. That argument is such a red herring. All you are seeing in these polls is political posturing. In the end, on election day, Palin would get the same voters that put Bush in office in 2000 and again in '04.

jerseyrepublican

Right Wingnut said...

Great point, JR. The left hated Bush just as much, if not more, as Palin. He won by rallying the BASE.

Ohio JOE said...

"He won by rallying the BASE." Shhhhhhh, Don't tell that to Pollclown.

Anonymous said...

I don't think there's any rational reason to believe Palin could beat Obama. I don't care how bad conditions are, people would run the other way if Palin is the nominee.

-Martha