Sunday, July 31, 2011

Is Sarah Palin working on PLAN B?

I had thought up until recently, that Palin might jump in the race for 2012. The bus tour, the documentary, the tweets, and facebook entries, all pointed to a run. I'm starting to take a different view.

Here is a thought:

What does Palin have to lose if she doesn't run and Obama is reelected?......I'll tell you, 4 additional years of gaining personal wealth and repairing her image, while stirring the political pot with an eye on 2016?

Case in point, her hard line stand via Facebook and threats to Republicans who backed the Boehner Bill:
Out here in proverbial politico flyover country, we little folk are watching the debt ceiling debate with great interest and concern. Today I re-read the open letter I wrote to Republican Freshman Members of Congress in November 2010, just days after they were ushered into office in an historic landslide victory due in large part to the activism of commonsense patriots who are considered part of the Tea Party movement. I respectfully ask these GOP Freshman to re-read this letter and remember us “little people” who believed in them, donated to their campaigns, spent hours tirelessly volunteering for them, and trusted them with our votes. This new wave of public servants may recall that they were sent to D.C. for such a time as this.

The original letter is pasted below, with added emphasis to certain passages that I feel are especially relevant to the current discussion.

All my best to you, GOP Freshmen, from up here in the Last Frontier.


Sarah Palin

P.S. Everyone I talk to still believes in contested primaries.
(emphasis mine)
Perhaps there is more to this than meets the eye? Perhaps her resistance isn't about the Boehner Bill or a compromise solution after all, But instead, trying to stay relevant with her Tea Party base and keeping the Tea Party relevent as well.

If a compromise bill is reached, her status and the Tea Party's importance is knocked down a notch and might be looked upon as a defeat. If a compromise isn't reached, we default, our AAA rating lowered, interests rates rise, America looses, but Palin gains in the sense that she can blame Obama for not accepting what the Tea Party wanted.

The problem with this scenario, is that many independents will look at this not as only a Democratic failure, but a Republican failure as well. Payback may turn out to be the 2012 elections.

Laura Ingraham put it this way:
You can stand on that soapbox and it might make you feel good in the moment. It might make you feel good to put out these Facebook postings," she said. "But in the end, does it actually advance your cause? And does it advance the cause of fiscal restraint, which I think we all have?" (emphasis mine)
Well, I guess that depends on what "your cause" is.

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Gerard said...

"What does she have to loose..."

I don't know, what does shave to loose?

It's an interesting post, and as much as I hate to be a pedant, I have to point that out. It's something that drives me absolutely insane.

Anonymous said...

ingraham put her in her place, she acts as if shes the queen of the gop and that everything revolves around her. She wont run in 2012 or 2016. Shes only looking for a spotlight thats all.If she were to run, 2012 is her best chance. If obama is reelected, 2016 field of gop candidates will be huge and full of more qualified candidates than palin, such as huckabee, daniels,pence, ryan,rubio, christie,pawlenty, west,jindal, etc. Palin will not have a chance against a group like this.

Anonymous said...

Palin is an absolute failure, as governor, in making movies, a full bus tour, reality shows etc. She has overstayed her welcome and use as a voice for the gop.

Anonymous said...

I think it's going a bit far to call Sarah Palin an absolute failure. She is a success by any number of standards, if not in everything.


Bosman, interesting. I have no doubt she has something up her sleeve to stay relevant.

Anonymous said...

Martha.... you really need to get off the Palin bus ride.... it is over. Palin is indeed a failure. Today she would be an unknown failed half term governor if it weren't for McCain picking her.... which he didn't really want her anyway... he stupidity listened to very bad advice from his campaign advisor. Palin hurt him badly with independents and even many GOP voters. Palin turned these voters to Obama out of fear of Palin taking over if something happen to McCain. Palin could NEVER win an election.... she is flat hated too much.... further has the image that she is an idiot. Her political career is over. Done. Finish. Kaput. When one damages their brand as much aa Palin has done there is NOTHING you can do to repair that damage.... Palin was one of the major reasons that McCain lost.... she and Bachman are party liabilities.

Doug NYC GOP said...

I think Palin's Plan B is to become the Yenta of the Right. The loud know it all Mother-in-Law, caricatured in comedies for years. Think Ethel Merman in "It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World" =

Her veiled threats about contested primaries indicates the possibility she wants to be the Right's power broker, not the elected leader. She'd still be free to pursue riches, without the cumbersome regulations of elected office, while still working at being influential.

The problem with Plan B (as well as Plan A) is people are becoming less fearful and tolerant of her. Laura Ingraham's comments will be a turning point in the deference paid to Palin. Combined with her failed movie, the bus tour which Paul Revere sidetracked and a general feeling of "Palin fatigue", you will start to see more opinions like Laura's emerge.

In fact I don't think the GOP really fears her, as much as they don't want to be distracted or caught up by a protracted high school fight right now. Palin still has influence, but it's in a decreasing capacity. Should a Republican win the WH in 2012, they will be the new voice of the Party and further lower that voice.

larry said...

I know it does no good to pressure people who are only trying to get the best deal possible.

Palin forgets, THIS IS IMPORTANT. We only have the house, so any deal will involve a compromise.

75% of what you want is better than nothing.

Cindy said...

You could be right.

There is no way Palin could run and win right now with her unfavorable numbers.

It's a 4 year wait with Obama, 4-8 with a Republican President.

Anonymous said...

Bos, are you really saying that Palin is trying to sabotage the deal to ruin the chances for a GOP candidate to beat Obama in the general...thus opening the door for herself in 2016?

I hope that's not what you're suggesting...


Anonymous said...

Doug, I disagree.


BTW, I would cite examples but I feel the entire comment is wrong. Your fear and loathing is starting to become a centerpiece in every Palin wonder you agree with dd so much. When will you start believing the "wild ride theory?"

marK said...

Oh get off it, Anon. There is no way that Palin is a "absolute" failure. Yes, there are some areas where she has failed, (including convincing me she's ready for the White House) but I can also think of a lot more areas where she has succeeded.

Absolute rhetoric is cheap, convinces no one, and only serves to drive wedges between people. What's worse from a logical standpoint, it is very easy to disprove.

BOSMAN said...


I'm not saying she's doing anything deliberately. I'm just stating that she could benefit from things not working out in regards to the U.S. defaulting.

I also believe she has given up on the idea of a 2012 run. As to 2016/2020, It would be a lot easier for her in a future run with no Republican in the WH and no VP with his her own aspirations.

As to her motives, I can't crawl in her head, I'll let others do that.

marK said...

I agree that the thrust of this article might have merit. Sarah may very well decide that the "opportune" time to run will be next time around. In the meantime, she continues to make a very comfortable living, does whatever she wants free from the constraints of campaigning and elective office, and remains a voice in national politics.

Public opinion is very fickle. Polls go up. Polls go down. Right now, they are very, very down for Sarah Palin. There would be no harm in waiting a few years for them to turn around.

My only concern would be the reaction of all those die-hard fans to her not running -- especially all those involved with O4P. They have put in quite a lot of time, effort, and money into a cause believing that she might run. If she decides not to run, are they going to feel like she has callously and cynically strung them along? There is that danger. Nobody likes to feel used.

Anonymous said...

Whatever happens, you can be assured she'll do what ever it takes to keep the Mormon out of the White House.


Anonymous said...

Well she could be doing what huckabee and maybe others are doing, hoping for an obama reelection and for the country to keep falling apart so by 2016 the country will be fed up with obama and the democrats and turn gop in 2016. She wont have a chance against a more qualified gop field in 2016.

Anonymous said...

If Obama is re elected, her paycheck is secure. If Romney is elected, the gravy train pulls into the station, and unloads it's passengers. I don't think she's a failure in all things. But she is certainly not qualified, fit nor has the temperament and demeanor to be president.

It all comes down to money, imo.

Doug NYC GOP said...


I don't delve into the fringe aspects of politics, either to advance my arguments or to discredit and smear others with whom I disagee. I'll leave that to you and RWN. You guys seem to have made an art of it.

In addition, I have no fear of Palin, nor would I label my tepid opinion of her as loathing. Since the post is about Palin, that would explain why she is the "centerpiece" of my comments this morning.

But I guess that's too reasonable for a reactionary to comprehend, much less accept.

Joe said...

Rate Romney for business acumen, not his religion

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know how much the tea party is paying her to spew hate on Sept 3? Will she get her usual $150,000? I heard that no one is even asking her to speak anymore and that she had to beg for $40,000 for the Sept gig.

Pablo said...

Sarah Palin is a historical blemish on our nation's conscience. It is over for her, and she quite wisely raked in the cash while the getting was good. If she wants to have any chance of running for office again, then she is going to have to do the things that will disappoint her fan base. She will to work hard at understanding public policy, she will need to go on non-Fox programs, she will need to speak directly to moderates, and she will need to limit her pandering and red meat routine. She would make far less money if she did all of those things, but hey, she already is rich, so why not focus on politics now?

Anonymous said...

Palin and the tea baggers are finished! Mitt Romney will not have anything to do with these crazies.


Anonymous said...

Pablo, really are not paying attention...she has already started doing some of the things you have suggested. The others you will see in due time.


Anonymous said...

JR...regarding Pablo's suggestions...exactly what has she done?

Anonymous said...

Palin never had a plan as far as running for president, she would have liked to but she knows deep within her own soul that she has no chance. So her plan was to go on a paparazzi tour, be in the spotlight, make money, make everyone think she will run for president.

Anonymous said...

I bet a happy meal that she runs for Senate in AZ.