Saturday, July 23, 2011

Does Romney have a strategy in Iowa?

....Romney’s new headquarters is an attic. Until a couple weeks ago, there was no air conditioning. His three paid staffers work on folding plastic picnic tables.

If it doesn’t seem like Romney’s playing to win here, that’s by design. The former Massachusetts governor, widely considered the national front-runner for the GOP’s 2012 presidential nomination, is waging a stealth campaign in the nation’s first caucus state.


Romney is engineering low expectations so that if he finishes second or third — or worse — it won’t set him back. Yet he also wants to be in position to pounce if he sees an opportunity.

Even his harshest critics here say an opportunity exists, with the field still fluid and Pawlenty, Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and a half-dozen others competing for the social conservative base. No candidate has shown strong appeal on Romney’s Iowa turf — the Rotary Club set and GOP establishment types — although Texas Gov. Rick Perry could do so if he runs....
Read the full story HERE.

Couple of thoughts:

1. If Perry gets in and competes in Iowa, does that present a divide and conguer scenario there. Will the socon vote be so split that Romney could pull off a win or strong second?

2. If Governor Brewer decides to move Arizona's  primary to late January and Perry gets in and concentrates on Arizona hoping for a win and  momentum from there, what would the scenario look like with early wins for Bachmann in Iowa and  Perry win in Arizona? Assuming Romney has NH sewed up, wouldn't it put a lot more importance on Nevada and South Carolina?

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larry said...

I can't see how Arizona would be allowed to do this so late in the Game.

Anonymous said...

Romney is going to win Arizona hands down. McCain won it last time because he had home court advantage. However, Arizona has a very large Mormon population and they will come in droves for Romney. MOVE IT UP BREWER!

Terry said...

I think Romney is hoping for the most crowded field possible. split the socon, evangelical. far right vote.

Ohio JOE said...

There is always talk about AZ moving up, but I am not sure that they want to lose half their delegates. However, the point remains that it is once again an expectations game.

Revolution 2012 said...

I think it's obvious that in Iowa, Romney is playing a strategies game.

While other spend big bucks on the straw poll, Romney will concentrate any efforts there on the caucuses.

I don't think AZ will move up for the reasons that OJ outlines. If they move up, IA, NH, NV, and SC will move AHEAD of them regardless of the date they choose. The GOP will make sure of that.

hamaca said...

Now that Romney is spending so little in Iowa, I love how the Romnots are trying to paint it that he's skipping Iowa, whereas last time he devoted a lot of time and resources and you'd hear "he's trying to buy the nomination" or "my vote is not for sale" whatever those actually mean in the real world.

BOSMAN said...

Perry is 2012's Fred Thompson!

Anonymous said...

Arizona's "Mormon" population really is not so large. However, there are a lot of conservatives here, and I think many of them like Romney. Having a population where most people know at least one or two Mormons usually reduces the prejudice against voting for one. It simply removes the fear factor; it doesn't really guarantee the vote.

However, Perry has been very weak on immigration, something Arizonans care very much about. I'm not sure that Perry would necessarily take Arizona hands down. Many of our voters are old people, and I imagine they would be a little more susceptible to a Romney than a Perry.

Just my 2 cents.


Ohio JOE said...

"Perry is 2012's Fred Thompson!" Well, Mr. Thompson was acrually a true Conservative.

Anonymous said...

OJ, and the joke of the party. He lost. and lost big.

Thompson, part deux.