Monday, December 27, 2010

PPP Polling: Huckabee edges out Romney in Florida

Mike Huckabee barely edges Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, 23-21-18, with Sarah Palin at 13%, Ron Paul at 8%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, Mitch Daniels at 2%, John Thune at 1%, and 10% undecided. Romney tops with moderates over Huckabee and Gingrich, 25-23-15, but they make up only a quarter of the votes. The 70% who call themselves conservative break down very similarly to the overall electorate.
Of note: Ron Paul who took 8% was included for the first time.

Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure:

Newt Gingrich 59/24/18
Mike Huckabee 67/20/13
Sarah Palin 61/32/7
Mitt Romney 61/22/16
Jeb Bush 83/11/6

Who would you vote for 2012:

Mitch Daniels 2
Newt Gingrich 18
Mike Huckabee 23
Sarah Palin 13
Ron Paul 8
Tim Pawlenty 4
Mitt Romney 21
John Thune 1
Someone else/Undecided 10

Would you describe yourself as Liberal, Moderate, or Conservative?

Liberal 5
Moderate 25
Conservative 70

Big 4 breakdown for GOP Primary: (Base/Liberal/Moderate/Conservative)

Newt Gingrich 18/24/15/19
Mike Huckabee 23/31/23/22
Sarah Palin 13/22/8/14
Mitt Romney 21/7/25/21

PPP surveyed 400 usual Florida Republican primary voters from December 17th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
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Anonymous said...

I'm not pleased with this. However, Romney and Huck are within the MOE.

Also, only 400 polled. That's not exactly a large sample.


illinoisguy said...

I believe this was an outlier. I know of nothing that would have moved these numbers this drastically in a couple weeks. What would have caused Mitt to have dropped and Huckabee to have gone up so much in the same time frame that exactly the opposite happened in Nort Carolina. It's just statistical noise gone wild.

BOSMAN said...

I agree with IG.

Romney up 8, Huckabee down 7 in NC.
Now this.

Then they only polled 400 in both states the same dates.

I almost wonder if they mixed the results up somehow.

phil said...

I think the next poll there should tell us if this is a fluke.

I'd like to see some other polling companies. It seems PPP is 90% of the polls lately.