Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Evan McMullin Is the 'Hail Mary' Candidate for Principled Conservatives

Evan McMullin isn't trying to fool anyone. Inside a gymnasium just outside of Salt Lake City, nearly 1,000 people hoping for something better than Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton have gathered to hear the 40-year-old former CIA agent and independent conservative presidential candidate who is surging in Utah polls. "Evan Help Us," reads one sign. But McMullin isn't there to offer false hope.
"The truth is that Hillary Clinton is now dominating Donald Trump in the polls so terribly—he's competing so terribly with her—that the chances are we're going to get more of the same in Washington. I know you don't want to hear that," he says. "Donald Trump is only leading in Texas by three percentage points. Texas. I think he's tied in Georgia or he's losing there. This is the Republican nominee."
"If we had a Republican nominee this year who stood for" conservative principles and inalienable human rights, "we'd be winning," says McMullin. "But we don't have that now."
McMullin mentions, almost in passing, that he has "a chance" of blocking both Clinton and Trump, in the unlikely event that the race tightens and McMullin wins a state or two. As Benjamin Morris wrote at FiveThirtyEight in mid-October, McMullin's chances of becoming president "are slim, not none." The numbers-crunching website gives Trump about a 1-in-50 chance of winning 269 to 275 electoral votes. If in such a scenario McMullin were to take Utah's six electoral votes from Trump—Utah polls show them neck-and-neck—no candidate would have the 270 electoral votes needed to become president and the House of Representatives would decide the race.
In deadlocked presidential elections, the Constitution directs the House to choose among the top three electoral vote getters; each state delegation gets one vote, and a majority of states is necessary to elect a new president. What are the odds, in this already very unlikely scenario, the GOP-controlled House wouldn't just make Trump president? Not good. But I'll let you do the math.
Read the rest from John McCormack HERE.

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