Russia: What if Ties to the West are CUT OFF?

One silver lining in drawing Russia closer to the West over the past two decades was to make Moscow feel real economic pain if it pulled any Soviet-style stunts. 

In the old days, when Soviet President Leonid Brezhnev unleashed tanks on Prague, he didn't worry about the impact on the ruble.

Vladimir Putin does. 

On Sunday, as the Russian squeeze on the Crimea intensified, the ruble plunged from 34 to the dollar to 40 to the dollar. That was never a factor in the Brezhnev era because the ruble was artificially valued. There was no exchange rate with the dollar. 

But even had there been, Brezhev would have shrugged it off because the state owned everything — every restaurant, every bread store, every car plant.

Not so today. Certainly Russian President Putin has plenty of power at his fingertips, but he also must contend with a growing business community — even if many are oligarchs beholden to him — that don't want a cut off of resources, a cancellation of gas contracts, and an abrupt halt to tourism. 

"Money doesn't love war," tweeted Gennadi Gudkov, a Russian businessman and politician who The Moscow Times once called "one of parliament's most vocal and charismatic critics" of Putin.

That in itself is a very non-Soviet notion — a high-profile critic who can spread his message worldwide in an instant and go to work the next day. 

In one of the more fascinating looks at unfolding events, Michael McFaul, who had been U.S. ambassador to Russia until just a week ago, is now back in California tweeting his own commentary. It is perhaps the closest we will get to look at this diplomatic crisis from an unmuzzled insider.

"Russian companies and banks with business in the West will suffer as a result of reckless Putin decision," McFaul tweeted from his reclaimed post as Stanford professor. "Will they speak up?" 

Earlier, McFaul told The New York Times that President Obama should do more to ensure that Russia's business-minded establishment understands that it would find itself cut off.

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