Tuesday, January 7, 2014

About that New Jersey exit poll showing Chris Christie getting 51% of the Hispanic vote.......

It doesn't necessarily translate to potential Hispanic appeal on a national scale. Why not?

1. Unreliable, small sample size. Only 222 Hispanic voters out of a total electorate of 2.1 million voters. (MOE of +/- 7%)

2. Low Turnout Helped Christie. The lowest in New Jersey's history. Democrat turnout was 6 points lower than 2012 electorate. In short, liberal Hispanics were as likely to stay home as liberal whites.

3. Democrat party bosses cut a deal by throwing a weak candidate out there (and gave her absolutely zero support), knowing Christie's re-election was all but certain. Consequently, a large number of Democrats opted to vote for the incumbent. Of course, some of these were Hispanic voters. That isn't likely to be duplicated on a national level, because as the author points out, Hillary Clinton (or whoever else would be the Democrat nominee) is not Barbara Buono.

I encourage you to read the entire analysis here. It's quite good.

1 comment:


Barbara Buono was a joke candidate with a joke platform and a joke campaign. Humpty Dumpty would have crushed her. Christie doing so is nothing to brag about.