Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Politico/GWU Poll: Obama leading by 1 point nationally

Head-to-Head: (Previous results from May 8)

Barack Obama 48% (47%)
Mitt Romney 47% (48%)

This Poll's Demographics:

Democrat 44%
Republican 40%
Independent 15%
A Survey of 1,000 registered likely voters was conducted August 5-9, 2012. The MOE is +/-3.1%.
The crosstabs can be viewed HERE.

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Anonymous said...

Poll is pre- Ryan. Means it's pre-bounce

WolvenOne said...

Also, the poll oversamples both democrats and republicans over independents. The internals heavily suggest that Romney is leading amongst independents, but with only 15% independents to 44% democrats the independents couldn't possibly make up the difference.

The sample should be closer to a three way split, with Democrats and Republicans only slightly ahead of independents in the demographic skew.

Also, some of the poll was done on a Sunday. Weekend polling skews slightly towards the left. Spreading it out will marginalize that somewhat, but it will make a difference in the results.

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