Barack Obama 48% (47%)
Mitt Romney 47% (48%)
This Poll's Demographics:
Democrat 44%
Republican 40%
Independent 15%
A Survey of 1,000 registered likely voters was conducted August 5-9, 2012. The MOE is +/-3.1%.The crosstabs can be viewed HERE.
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3 comments:
Poll is pre- Ryan. Means it's pre-bounce
Also, the poll oversamples both democrats and republicans over independents. The internals heavily suggest that Romney is leading amongst independents, but with only 15% independents to 44% democrats the independents couldn't possibly make up the difference.
The sample should be closer to a three way split, with Democrats and Republicans only slightly ahead of independents in the demographic skew.
Also, some of the poll was done on a Sunday. Weekend polling skews slightly towards the left. Spreading it out will marginalize that somewhat, but it will make a difference in the results.
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