Sunday, April 8, 2012

Swing State Analysis: Women Voters

Here is my analysis on the biggest problem that Romney faces: getting women to vote for him. Below are my concluding facts. Please let me know what you think. The analysis is about three pages. Note, I have long preached that the lack of appeal among Hispanics for the GOP is the biggest threat to the party. I now see that getting women to vote for the Republican Party is a much bigger problem.

Concluding Facts

• Hispanic voters may play a role who wins the presidency, but women voters will play a much larger role.

• Republicans usually poll poorly with women but the past four years have been particularly rough.

• If Romney does not improve his numbers with women, particularly those under fifty, then he will lose the general election, and possibly by a wide margin.

• The evidence suggest that the contraception debate may have hurt Romney’s women numbers marginally, but the Republican Party’s acceptance of anti‐government, Tea Party rhetoric may be the biggest obstacle to gaining women voters.

• More women support Obamacare than oppose it.

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Unknown said...

Stephanopolous was to blame for bringing up contraception. Screw him for giving that question. Props to Romney for the answer he gave. And a middle finger to Santorum for looking at the issue like a lifeline...which he then promptly set on fire.

My Life said...

Romney's numbers were great with women and swing voters until Santorum's rhetoric became front line and center of the news.

Romney will improve his image with women as soon as Santorum gets out.

Terrye said...

I think that once the primary is over Romney's numbers will improve with women. I don't know if he will do as well as Obama, because women tend to be more liberal anyway...but I think he can do better than he is doing now.

Anonymous said...

Mitt speaks of Freedom a women need to be told by the government (Obama Adm.) how to make their individual choices or a government (Mitt's Adm.)that will step aside & let the women excel with their many talents & do the deciding for themselves? America is still the land of the free.

Anonymous said...

I still maintain this whole contraceptive talk was a set up...Distraction from Obama to elevate the win for Santroum...and social issues...It is the economy Stupids....We need Mitt...and logic will prevail...Santorum is also a distraction...wishing for a Mitt win in Pa...We need to focus on Obama and the general.....Mitt Romney 2012....Paulee here...

Anonymous said...

I am certain that the contraception issue has hurt the Republican party in general. We have got to move away from contraception to religious freedom, or we won't survive.

That being said, many of the polls reflect "registered voters" not "likely voters." Married women are more likely to vote for Mitt than single women, and married women are more likely to vote; period. Part of this is simply a talking point used by the Obama campaign to disguise how badly Obama has messed up the last couple of weeks. [See Medveded hot-mic, and scolding the SCOTUS]