Friday, April 6, 2012

Swing State Analysis: Colorado

Here is my first take on Colorado. Like Nevada, Colorado will be difficult for Romney, but not impossible. The key, again like Colorado, is winning over large swaths of moderates and independents who live in urban and suburban areas. As I have looked hard at these states, I can't help but sigh at the WRONG direction in which the GOP is headed. As Americans become less white, more educated, and more urban, the GOP is becoming the exact opposite of those things. Nevertheless, we somehow managed to end up with the only candidate who might win some of those voters.

The down side, again like Nevada, is that there is a large swath of Hispanic voters that are not likely to stampeded towards Romney.

Again, I would love to hear your thoughts. Republicans need to understand the kind of voters they need to win a national election.

Please check us out on Facebook and If you like what you see, please "Like" us. You can find us here.


Anonymous said...

I think Romney can win Colorado. The 2010 senate race was very competitive there and the GOP would have won had a nutcase like Ken Buck had not been nominated.

Romney will greatly appeal to independants, moderates, and even some liberals. The key to winning Colorado is winning the two Denver suburb counties of Arapahoe and Jefferson, and Larimer County north of Denver. It's really not a tall order to accomplish for someone like Romney.


Anonymous said...

I live in Jefferson County--I think Romney can win here and in Colorado.

The last few races where the dems won, is because the very conservative right wing of the party elected folks that were simply too far right.

Romney could very well garner a large midsection.

However, our gas prices are lower here than around the country, and people aren't hurting as much as in other areas.

I hope we rally the vote and deliver Colorado to Mitt.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Pablo. Your analysis on that Nevada post was really good.
Also, I don't know if you're the boss of the site, but I'm sure that I'm speaking for all by saying thanks for the daily campaign schedules, live feeds on election night etc.
Also, whilst I too am a Romney fan, in all honesty, and taking everything into consideration, do you really think that he can take Obama out in the fall? IMO I think that it will be Obama all the way, the way things are going. But how I'd love to be so wrong. I feel that the influence of superpac $, in Romney's camp, will equalise it more than people are considering. Indeed, considering how outspend |Mccain was 4 years ago etc.

Anonymous said...

I can't help but sigh at the WRONG poll that you are using. PPP is pro-democrat and polls for that purpose, thus tainting your analysis. Use Rasmussen.

Corep said...


you rightly identify the difficulty of the hispanic population inroads here in CO for Mitt, but i think you over estimate the size of it.
two factors Mitt has going for him here. 1 is him the other is Obama. Lets start with Obama. Like no other state Colorado bought into the hope of Obama. Indies turned out in droves for Obama as did moderate GOP. This tilted the state in 2008. Yet Obama hasnt delivered near enough on what he promised when he was nominated here in Denver. The indie current is prime to be taken and moved towards the right. This brings us to the other thing which is Mitt.
Colorado is a centrist, right of center state. Hickenlooper who was elected last year fits that mold. He routinely pisses off the far right and the far left equally. (it should also be noted that he was elected in a 3way race with a far right and center right opponents) Mitt fits the traditional center right candidates that have won state wide elections here in the past. He isnt too far right which turns off the indies here so he can solidify that support. Also Mitt isnt likely to pick a VP who will turn off indies like Palin did in 2008 so he will start from a far better position than McCain.
Lastly this election will be won in the suburbs of Denver. Turnout will be key. Jeffco, Arapahoe, Adams, Boulder, Broomfield and DougCo will determine the winner. The degree to which Mitt can motivate the folks especially in Jeffco, Arapahoe, Adams and Broomfield to get out and vote for him will determine if he wins. Boulder and DougCo will cancel each other out, though I give the edge in votes between those two counties to Dougco simply becuase the Left isnt as motivated as the right at this time. If Jeffco and Arapahoe go big for Mitt, which is possible, then he will win by 5-7 %. If not then the fight will be tight. If i had to guess i would say that today Mitt would carry CO by less than 2% mostly on the fact that the left isnt motivated and the love for Obama is gone here.
Good analysis from you - look forward to the rest of the states

Anonymous said...

Hispanic aren't a monolithic group, but they all care about feeding their families and education for there children. Polls show that Jobs and the economy rank the highest as their main concern. Under President Obama, Hispanics have one of the highest unemployment rate in the nation and less opportunities for a bright future. Here is where Mitt can win the day! Jobs, Education, Opportunity and a Brighter Future! Mitt is the ONE (that can make it happen)!