Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Why the Non-Romneys Have No Chance of Winning the Nomination, Part II

This past Saturday, Santorum crushed Mitt Romney in Kansas. And his chances of winning the Republican nomination decreased. I updated my chart from last week. I will probably only do it a couple of more times, since it is obvious that Romney will win the nomination.

The key numbers tonight are not whether Santorum can win any of the states, but whether he can bring home 67% of the delegates. If he doesn't, then he will have to take home any even larger chunk of the remaining delegates. Conversely, if Romney wins more than 48% of the delegates tonight, he will improve his chances.

I think we can also say that Santorum losing California is no longer a viable option for him. He really has to win almost every single state from here on out and with a healthy margin in most of those wins.

Again, the math doesn't lie. There are two options for Republicans: (a) Romney wins now or (b) Romney wins later.  Santorum's and Gingrich's strategy rests on option C: chaos from a brokered convention.



Romney
Santorum
Gingrich
Paul

3/7
3/12
3/7
3/12
3/7
3/12
3/7
3/12
Delegates Needed
735
689
981
945
1,033
1,027
1,083
1,080
% of remaining delegates needed
49.8%
48.9%
66.5%
67.1%
70%
72.9%
73.4%
76.7%
% of remaining delegates needed If Romney Wins UT, NJ
46.5%
45.4%
70%
71.6%
74.5%
77.9%
78.1%
81.9%
% of remaining delegates needed if Romney wins  UT, NJ, and CA
38.9%
37.2%
80%
82.4%
85.1%
89.6%
89.2%
94.2%


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7 comments:

BOSMAN said...

BRILLIANT!!!

Publius Nemo said...

I heard Santorum say on Fox that he isn't focusing on math. Who wants to vote for a guy to fix the economy and deficit who deprecates math? Nice use of math here in this post by the way.

Anonymous said...

Romney is, of course, going to win, but if it's not too much work, I'd love to see this chart once a week anyway.

It is obvious that Santorum and Gingrich do not have the good of the party at heart. It's a selfish ego trip for both. I guess that would include Paul as well, but I believe his motives are different.

Anonymous said...

Fantastic chart Pablo. This should be up at RCP, Politico, Drudge etc. I hope that you keep updating this chart weekly. Thanks for your effort.

DanL

Anonymous said...

If we don't have a nominee until the last week in August, we do not beat Obama.

Period.

Romney was in a similar situation after Super Tuesday 4 years ago, and he dropped out. Huckabee stayed in and caused problems...and got a talk show.

Santorum is merely hoping to stay in, cause problems and get a talk show.

If Santorum stays in and costs us the White House, he needs to be shunned and BOOed forever more at any GOP convention.

Deila Taylor said...

nice work. It helps me breath more easily. Even tho.

Anonymous said...

A heartfelt thanks, Pablo, from us 'mathematically challenged'--but otherwise sane--voters.

I continue to believe that Santorum and Gingrich will be pressured to leave the race long before the convention. Each man is running on fumes right now. Admittedly, each is intoxicated by the adulation, attention, air time, etc. But my hunch is that each also has his price. Nothing illegal, not at all. Just the hard, cold, smack-in-the-head realization that he will lose all future revenue as a Washington lobbyist if he forces a floor fight in Tampa, or even comes close to doing so. GINGRICH AND SANTORUM ARE LOBBYISTS, for crying out loud! That's the lion's share of their earning potential.

Santorum, in particular, desperately needs earnings to support his large young family. And, unlike Huckabee, Santorum does not have the genial personality to pull off a successful TV or radio show. Gingrich is wealthier and less financially challenged, so he may have to be lured with promises of power and influence within the GOP. Still, he has to secure his much-younger wife's future and continue to outfit her in Tiffany's finest.