Monday, March 26, 2012

State of the Race


There are three things certain in life: death, taxes and that Mitt Romney will be the 2012 Republican nominee. The important question is when, not if. There are many reasons why this is important.
1.     The longer it takes for Romney to wrap up the nomination, the more concessions he will owe the Talk Radio base of the party. And, of course, the more concessions he makes, the harder it will be for him to win the general election.
2.     The longer the primaries, the more attacks run against Romney and the more he looks like a “loser.”
3.     The longer the primaries, the longer Romney has to wait to begin a general election campaign to win moderates, the very thing that his adviser accidently blurted out during the etch-a-sketch gaffe (on a side note, I would advise Romney to begin that campaign after April 3 even though he will be far from having all of the delegates he needs).
So when will Romney wrap up the nomination? I have charted out three scenarios below. The first scenario I dub the Negative Status Quo scenario. I assume that demographics, as it has hitherto, will remain the dominant factor in the remaining races. However, the “negative” is that I assume Santorum will endure until the end, despite the fact that he will be mathematically eliminated by the end of April.
Please note that I spent a great deal of time looking at the Green Papers to understand how each state allocates delegates. For example, the winner of Wisconsin really is likely to win 40 out of the 46 delegates because Wisconsin gives 18 delegates to the overall winner and 3 delegates for each district won. The candidate who wins 6 out of the 8 congressional districts wins 40 delegates. If there are any questions on delegate allocation, please leave a comment.
Negative Status Quo


Romney
Santorum
3-Apr
Wisconsin
40
6

Maryland
34
3

D.C.
19
0
21-Apr
Missouri
6
18
24-Apr
New York
74
18

Penn
15
44

Conn
21
3

Rhode Is.
9
6

Delaware
17
0
8-May
NC
15
30

Indiana
9
18

WV
9
19
15-May
Nebraska
5
30

Oregon
15
10
22-May
Kentucky
8
34

Arkansas
5
40
29-May
Texas
54
98
5-Jun
California
145
24

New Jersey
50
0

South Dak.
5
20

New Mex
12
8
26-Jun
Utah
40
0

Total
607
429

Needed
581
886

Difference
26
-457

You will notice I assume that Romney gets blasted during May. At that point, Santorum will have already been mathematically eliminated from getting the necessary delegates, so there will be considerable pressure on him to drop out. But I assume that he has alternative reasons and that the May states remain resistant to voting for Romney. I call this the Negative Status Quo scenario because it assumes that Romney never breaks through to the Talk Radio base. He still wins in the end though.
The problem that Santorum has is that even if Romney doesn’t get to the magic number of 1,144, he can still count on a number of Super Delegates and non-binding delegates to turn his way. If Romney misses the mark by about 100 delegates, he would still likely be the nominee.
So what would that look like?


Romney
Santorum
3-Apr
Wisconsin
6
40

Maryland
28
9

D.C.
19
0
21-Apr
Missouri
6
18
24-Apr
New York
54
38

Penn
15
44

Conn
18
6

Rhode Is.
9
6

Delaware
17
0
8-May
NC
15
30

Indiana
9
18

WV
9
19
15-May
Nebraska
5
30

Oregon
15
10
22-May
Kentucky
8
34

Arkansas
5
40
29-May
Texas
42
110
5-Jun
California
97
72

New Jersey
50
0

South Dak.
5
20

New Mex
8
12
26-Jun
Utah
40
0

Total
480
556

Needed
581
886

Difference
-101
-330

You will notice that Santorum outperforms Romney by almost 100 delegates. He beats Romney in Wisconsin and North Carolina and he significantly lowers the gap in California and New York. He also increases his leads in states like Texas. Again, this scenario leaves Romney about 100 delegates shy. He would likely still be the nominee.
So what would Santorum need to do to stand a reasonable chance of being the nominee? Well, he would ideally need to win more delegates than Romney. I tried to envision a scenario where Santorum comes from behind to beat Romney, but I couldn’t realistically think of one. However, if the following were to occur, then Santorum would have a reasonable argument to make that he should be the nominee, since he would be pounding Romney in the last half of the race, despite still losing the total count.


Romney
Santorum
3-Apr
Wisconsin
6
40

Maryland
9
28

D.C.
19
0
21-Apr
Missouri
3
21
24-Apr
New York
54
38

Penn
5
54

Conn
18
6

Rhode Is.
6
9

Delaware
0
17
8-May
NC
10
35

Indiana
6
21

WV
7
21
15-May
Nebraska
5
30

Oregon
15
10
22-May
Kentucky
8
34

Arkansas
5
40
29-May
Texas
42
110
5-Jun
California
72
97

New Jersey
50
0

South Dak.
5
20

New Mex
4
16
26-Jun
Utah
40
0

Total
389
647

Needed
581
886

Difference
-192
-239

In this scenario, I gave away the store to Santorum. He wins California, Delaware, and Maryland. He barely loses New York and he destroys Romney in Texas and Pennsylvania. He still ends up with fewer delegates than Romney, but he could go to the Convention with a legitimate argument to make that he has the momentum and has earned the right to be the nominee.
If I were a betting man, I would bet that a more positive scenario than the first one happens, where Santorum drops out before May. He has to be careful not to cross a line. If he wants a future in the Republican Party, he needs to make sure he doesn’t come across as deliberately trying to derail Romney’s chances in November.
I would also argue that the race has been over for some time now. In fact, I would argue that it was over after Super Tuesday. There were few options left to Santorum after Ohio. Had he won Illinois, it would have set up the possibility for him to pull together a string of victories. But even that was a long shot. The only reason why this race has “continued” is because the media is bored, talk radio needs a bogeyman (Romney), and there are more proportional primaries this year. Had any one of those factors been different (particularly the last one), Romney would have been collectively declared the winner after Super Tuesday (much like McCain four years ago).  

7 comments:

Lionhead said...

Pablo, interesting analysis you've provided here; reminds me of the way Standard & Poors lays out reports on bonds with the three cases. Well then, we've got your views on the record to see how well your analysis pans out in Tampa. I can think of one additional reason for the primaries to continue; to allow the GOP base to express their views on the candidates in real time sans sampling errors. Moreover, they can feel they're part of the campaign vs. being disenfranchised in the old style primary protocol that you note.

Pablo said...

Sorry about the graphics. Excel doesn't seem to work well in Blogger.

BOSMAN said...

Great Post Pablo, although scenarios 2&3 have a snowballs chance in hell of happening. Unless of course we find out that Mitt is a vegetarian or a video surfaces of him skinny dipping.

Graham said...

Texas looking more favorable to Romney, and Penn is not in the bag for Santorum.

But I'll take this as a less-than-ideal scenario.

Machtyn said...

Lionhead: I wanted a chance to have a say in the primary and have my vote count, but being in one of the last states meant that was nearly impossible, except for the current situation - where the front runner cannot possibly wrap up the nomination with delegate count. They can only do it with momentum and inevitability.

The problem with the inevitability claim is that people will stop showing for the front runner and the also rans think they have a chance. And they really do have a chance at preventing a declared winner.

It is now no longer a chance to win on delegates for either Newt or Rick, but a chance to be a Romney spoiler. But in so doing, they will likely do major harm to the party and destroy their own futures in Republican politics.

I find it interesting how Rick tries to play a "It's all Romney's fault." When in actuality, it is not Romney's campaign putting out these delegate counts, as Rick likes to say, but these are the estimates from the MSM, new media and GOP that are showing Rick's own delegate accounting is fuzzy math.

Anonymous said...

Have you missed out Montana? I'm sure that Montana votes on that JUne 5th- ish time

Pablo said...

I think that Montana votes on June 5th but their vote has nothing to do with the allocation of delegates which comes later in July? I think.