Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Mr. Romney regains the lead nationally

We have limited national polling, but indications suggest that Mr. Romney gained almost 5 points nationally, while Mr. Gingrich lost the same amount. So Mr. Romney has about 34.9% nationally while Mr. Gingrich is down to 29.3%. If trends continue, Mr. Romney will widen his lead soon. Mr. Santorum gains over a point to sit at 18.3% and Dr. Paul slips a tad to sit at 13.8%. About 80 delegates have been elected as Romneyites so far and he should be able to get 965 if state and national polling stands which is an addition of over 150 from last week’s projections. 31 delegates have been elected to the Gingrich camp so far and that figure is projected to reach 709 which is almost a 150 drop since last week. Mr. Santorum has11 elected delegates and he is projected to end up with 246 with is a rise and Dr. Paul is projected to end up with only 171. He has 15 elected delegates so far.

In short, Mr. Romney strengthens his position. However, the delegate race will go on for a time as nobody is projected to get a majority any time soon. The big question is whether Mr. Gingrich can close the gap with Mr. Romney or will he slip further towards third place.

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Anonymous said...

Next week you'll get to talk about Rick dragging the race out to a brokered convention and all of the ABR's can forget about Santorum's lack of leadership and declare him the "conservative savior."

Unfortunaltely, you'll have to come to the realization that there might just be a reason why Santorum never got any attention until EVERY OTHER ABR had their chance...he's obiously not a whole lot more exciting and convincing than the dreaded Romney...oh yeah, did I mention that Santorum has never lead any organization before?


BOSMAN said...

Thanks for all the ongoing analysis OJ. You have a gift.