Friday, December 2, 2011

PPP Polling: Romney and Obama virtually tied in Florida

If the Newt surge persists over the next few months the biggest winner is going to be Barack Obama. We can see that pretty clearly in our newest Florida poll.

If Mitt Romney's the Republican nominee, Obama's in a lot of trouble in the Sunshine State. Obama leads Romney only 45-44, and given that the undecideds skew largely Republican he'd probably lose to Romney if the election was today. Obama being stuck in the mid-4os against Romney is par for the course in our Florida polling. In September Obama led 46-45, in June it was 47-43, and in March it was 46-44. The dial has barely moved all year.

But if Newt Gingrich is the Republican nominee it's a completely different story. Obama leads him 50-44 in a head to head. To find the last time a GOP Presidential candidate lost Florida by more than that you have to go all the way back to Thomas Dewey in 1948. Even Barry Goldwater did better in Florida than Gingrich is right now.

Head-To-Head: (results from September)

Barack Obama 45% (46%)
Mitt Romney 44% (45%) (-1)

Barack Obama 46% (45%)
Ron Paul 40% (44%) (-6) 

Barack Obama 50% (50%)
Newt Gingrich 44% (42%) (-6)

Barack Obama 50% (50%)
Rick Perry 38% (43%) (-12)

Barack Obama 51%
Herman Cain 37% (-14)
PPP surveyed 700 Florida voters from November 28th to December 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%.
The full story and crosstabs are HERE.

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