Monday, December 19, 2011

PPP Polling: Paul leads in Iowa. Romney close second. Newt who?

Newt down 8 Points in Iowa

GOP Nomination: (results from December 13)

Ron Paul 23% (21%)
Mitt Romney 20% (16%)
Newt Gingrich 14% (22%)
Michele Bachman 10% (11%)
Rick Perry 10% (9%)
Rick Santorum 10% (8%)
Jon Huntsman 4% (5%)
Gary Johnson 2% (1%)
Other/Undecided 7% (7%)
PPP surveyed 597 likely Republican caucus voters from December 16th to 18th. The
margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%.

The crosstabs can be viewed HERE.


Anonymous said...

Gingrich is so toasted!

larry said...

Romney up 4 points.

He may just win there.

Perhaps the thought of what a Paul win will do to Iowa's credibility, will bring out Iowans for Romney?

Terrye said...

I hope Romney wins, because if Paul does no one will take Iowa seriously again. I wonder if Bachmann and the other candidates will start releasing excerpts from those newsletters of Paul's if he wins?

Lionhead said...

What really annoys me is just the posting of the headline numbers. Let's have a look into the details shall we?

From the PPP:

"Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.

Paul's ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa. 22% of voters think he's run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it's 'very important' that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa. Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.

Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich. He's really going to need that younger than normal electorate because with seniors Romney's blowing him out 31-15 with Gingrich coming in 2nd at 18%. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters. Young people and non-Republicans are an unusual coalition to hang your hat on in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if Paul can actually pull it off."

Now, here we have some evidence of the electability problem for Mitt (<25%). Notice Paul's draw for younger retail voters, Democrats & Independents. Mitt was supposed to appeal to crossover voters, yet Paul has a considerable edge in Iowa. We shall see if this is an outlier or continues into a trend.

ConMan said...

Romney is positioning himself to win this thing outright. Paul is peaking here to early

I expect him to cut back on the ads for the next week as to not shoot into first place. The last 7 days, Romney TV will be dominating the airwaves here.

Anonymous said...

Remember Romney's supposedly inability to break 25%? Remember how he never seems to fall below 20%? It looks as though that solid base may be the biggest asset of the Romney campaign in Iowa.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - if Paul wins Iowa and Romney comes in 2nd then Iowa gets written off completely and the Race is all about Romney from that point forward.


Revolution 2012 said...

I agree with Larry.

I think there are Iowans who would be so embarrassed for their state with a Paul win, that they'll back the person they feel has the best chance of beating him there.

Anonymous said...

The greatest Christmas miracle for the Romney campaign will be for Paul to suddenly appear to be the next flavor of the month.

Looking for motivation? That'll fire up motivation to choose the right candidate and stop flirting with disaster.


Anonymous said...

Or...the support all goes to Perry or Santorum and a whole new Anti-Mitt candidate is born or in Perry's case re-born. If Paul looks like he is going to win Iowa, I honestly don't think people will run to Romney...they'll rally around a true Christian.
I think I'd rather have Perry win Iowa than Santorum...personally.

How in the world did Newt deflate so fast...that was crazy. And yet the entire chattering class and the base of the party refuses to look at Romney's steady support stretched over YEARS, not just WEEKS, and decidedly declare him the weakest frontrunner of all times.

Doesn't it worry any of these people that Mr./Mrs. Pure Candidate "x" may not be able to hold up with support over the long haul? Even if they reach stratospheric poll numbers, they may end up being very weak a month (or in Newts case) a week later. That's why Palin should have gotten in...if the Party absolutely refuses to nominate Romney, at least we would have gone with someone who was a known commodity with a solid base of support.
We were told ad nauseum by all of the conservative media ( at least the biggies) that ALL of Newt's baggage was widely known and accepted, and largely thought to be behind him and not a factor moving forward...I guess not. Isn't it slightly risky to nominate a candidate that has never spent a day in the double digits on any National poll?