Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Gingrich may have slipped BIGTIME in closer look at latest Iowa Poll

According to Reuters:
The Iowa poll suggests that Gingrich's lead in that state could be fading.

It was conducted over a weeklong period in which another conservative candidate, Herman Cain, suspended his campaign amid allegations that he had a 13-year extramarital affair.

In the early part of the polling period before Cain dropped out on December 3, Gingrich was receiving 37.7 percent support. After Cain's exit toward the end of the polling period, Gingrich's support was down to 24.4 percent.
University of Iowa polling results on December 5-7:
(Gingrich results on December 3)

Newt Gingrich 24% (38)
Mitt Romney 19%
Ron Paul 13%
Rick Perry 10%
Michele Bachmann 7%
Rick Sanoturm 7%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Undecided 14%

Results were rounded to the nearest percent

The full story is HERE.

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29 comments:

Right Wingnut said...

Bosman,

I thought you were smarter than the folks at Race.

The sample size of the ENTIRE poll is 277 people, with a MOE of +/- 6.

In the first three days of polling, we're talking about 138 people. I'm not sure what the MOE is on that, but it's likely high enough to render any conclusions based on the data meaningless.

BOSMAN said...

If it's meaningless, we'll soon find out, WON'T WE?

Ohio JOE said...

Good find Bosman; Both RW and Bosman make good points. Until we see more information, I would not put too much faith in 277 people alone. However, if we look at the last 3 polls from Iowa (and a few other recent polls from the Midwestern states,) Mr. Gingrich seems to have hit his peak in Iowa and may be slipping a bit there as well as in other parts of the country. Again, it is too soon to tell whether this is just statistical noise, but Mr. Gingrich might be slipping; not falling like a rock yet, but slipping a bit. Over the next few days we will see who might be rising a few points and I for one will look at the way things stand later in the week.

Right Wingnut said...

It's important to put this in perspective. In this same poll, Newt leads Romney 30-20 among the ENTIRE sample.

Machtyn said...

Gingrich rose quickly due to his debate performance and general popularity. He's been a commentator on FoxNews for many years.

But now that most of the media and talk show hosts are hitting him hard, the public will likely sway away from Newt. But it does take time for poll numbers to reflect the damage.

I keep hearing positive noise from the people who volunteer to make campaign calls for Romney in Iowa. He may have a stronger presence there than many are letting on.

Right Wingnut said...

I asked 10 people yesterday who they support. 7 were for Newt, 3 for Romney. Therefore, Newt leads by 40 points in Minnesota.

hamaca said...

RWN--oh fer geez, youse people up Nort must be libs fer sure.

leighrow said...

RW-

I live in Minnesota and Minnesota has always gone for the Democrats in presidential politics.

I saw a poll where Romney was within 5 of Obama in MN but the other candidates were behind Obama by double digits.

A candidate like Romney does have the potential to flip a state like MN unlike a polarizing candidate like Newt Gingrich.

Ohio JOE said...

"I keep hearing positive noise from the people who volunteer to make campaign calls for Romney in Iowa." I am not surprised, after all few of us (except for some who got carried away) predicted that Mr. Romney would come in last place in Iowa. He is in the top three and will probably do half way decent at least. How decent? Who knows yet?

Right Wingnut said...

Leighrow,

I disagree. The GOP has zero chance of winning Minnesota.

Zero.

Ohio JOE said...

"I disagree. The GOP has zero chance of winning Minnesota." Never say zero, but, it is a lot less than 50.

Robb F. said...

Considering his lack of ground game and ability to get his message up on TV and radio. Newt better be leading big time in Ia to have any chance of winning it. Romney has quietly put together his top notch ground game from 4 years ago that was only beaten by the Evangelical preachers for Huckabee. This time around they aren't coalescing behind one candidate so Mitt has a chance to really surprise there. If Mitt wins Iowa the nomination is his.

Robb F. said...

There are a slew of polls showing Newt's crest has ebbed and his numbers are coming down in IA. Possibly due to the hard hitting ads Ron Paul has been running against him in the state.

Right Wingnut said...

OJ,

OK, Maybe not zero, but certainly less than 5%. If Minnesota is in play, it will be a landslide of epic proportions.

The unions are too strong in Minnesota. We elect Republican Governors on a regular basis, but those elections are held in mid-term cycles. The Dems really crank out the turnout machine for presidential elections.

leighrow said...

RW-

I disagree after all, MN has elected Republican governors like Tim Pawlenty for two terms, who just happens to be on the Romney team.

The right GOP candidate could flip the state,especially in 2012.

Right Wingnut said...

Leighrow,

Pawlenty could not have won if he were on the ballot in a presidential election year.

Right Wingnut said...

Didn't you say you just moved here from Pennsylvania?

Anonymous said...

Who the hell would want to live in Minnesota?

GetReal said...

Wouldn't it be nice to be able to delete anonymous comments which in no way added to the discussion? (see above)

leighrow said...

RW

No....I grew up and went to college in PA and moved to MN after graduating college.

Right Wingnut said...

GR,

I can delete them on my own threads. I leave most of them up, just to show what a dumbass some of these people are.

leighrow said...

Annonymous

Ha ha ha ha...good point,I ask myself that everyday especially since Franken became our Senator. I moved to MN for career and marriage:)

Anonymous said...

Seriously though, why would anyone want to live in Minnesota, what is so great about it? Ive been to Minnesota and the women were uglier than alaskan eskimos.

Anonymous said...

LOL

Ohio JOE said...

"I disagree after all, MN has elected Republican governors like Tim Pawlenty ....." True, but many blue states elect GOP governors.

Ohio JOE said...

"Who the hell would want to live in Minnesota?" Unfortunately, I have not quite made it to the state, but let's just say I'd rather live there than most places in the world and even many place right here in America.

Robb F. said...

An ARG poll with a sample size over 600 people showed that Gingrich is even further down as of today coming in at 22% which is down from 37% in their last poll and puts him barely above the margin of error against Mitt. I guess 600 won't be enough of a sample size for RWN either though.

Terrye said...

Several polls came out today, Gingrich was down in all of them.

Frozone said...

RWN - Now I understand the rage. MN is a frustrating place. Lone voice in the wilderness kind of place. Frozen tundra.

I'm in MN too, and the Dems win by cheating. Do you know how many dead people voted in the last election? Enough. And they were all DFL-ers (Minnesotan for Democrat).

Let's get voter ID!!!

That said, I don't think MN will flip. WI, maybe, MI, probably too, with the right nominee...