Monday, October 24, 2011

Magellan Poll: Mitt Romney way ahead in Nevada

Since our last survey at the end of August, Mitt Romney has increased his overall support by 14 points from 24% to 38%. Looking at the ballot test by voter subgroup, we find Mitt Romney with very large margins among women (+22), seniors (+18), and not surprisingly Mormon voters (+67). Among all respondents, 16% identified themselves as Mormon. The race is much tighter among male voters (Romney +2), self‐identified Tea Party members(Romney ‐2) and voters that did not vote in the 2008 Nevada GOP Presidential Caucus (Romney ‐1). We consider the latter two populations "Sharon Angle" voters, and if Mitt Romney can remain competitive among these two groups he will be in a strong position to win

GOP Nomination:

Mitt Romney 38%
Herman Cain 26%
Newt Gingrich 16%
Ron Paul 7%
Rick Perry 5%
Michele Bachmann 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Other candidate 1%
Undecided 3%

Who Won the CNN/WRLC Debate Last Week? "Among the candidates that participated in the debate, who do you think had the strongest performance?" (Results are among the 58% of respondents that watched the debate.)

Mitt Romney 40%
Newt Gingrich 27%
Herman Cain 19%
Ron Paul 4%
Rick Perry 2%
Michele Bachmann 2%
Rick Santorum 0%
None 2%
Undecided 4%

The 673 interviews were conducted on October 19th and 20th. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of 3.77%.
The full story is here.
The crosstabs can be viewed here.

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Anonymous said...

Ouch! 2% said Perry won the debate. I thought the pundits all told us Perry got back into it with that 'performance'. Hah.


Anonymous said...

Apparently 25% of Nevada Caucus goers in 2008 were Mormon and this polls has them at 16%?

Romney is going to win Nevada in a blow-out!