Monday, October 24, 2011

Are the new changes in the GOP Primary Calendar helping to seal the deal for Mitt Romney?

Let's take a look: (days between previous primary)

Iowa Caucuses: January 3
New Hampshire*: likely January 10 (+7 days)
South Carolina: Jabuary 21 (+11 days)
Florida^: January 31 (+10 days)
Nevada*: February 4 (+4 days)
Michigan* & Arizona^: February 28 (+24 days)
Super Tuesday states: March 6 (+7 days)

* Romney Heavy favorite
^ Romney Favorite

Romney is competitive in both Iowa & South Carolina. With Nevada at a later date and not the same date as South Carolina as in 08, this gives Romney 11 days after New Hampshire to fully concentrate on South Carolina.

My guess is, without a major screw up on Romney's part and if his strength in these early state polls continues, this could all be over before Super Tuesday.

Am I wrong? If so, how?

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larry said...

I agree.

Romney will have the money and extra time now to zero in on SC and Iowa, without jeopardizing any time away from his strongholds.

Anonymous said...

If Mitt wins SC it's all over before Super Tuesday. If not then he will close it out on Super Tuesday.

Anonymous said...

The changes don't help Mr. Romney and could end up hurting him. Mr. Romney's biggest strength right now is that he has the money and the organization to compete in all 50 primary states and be competitive in nearly every contest. A war of attrition is one that he almost certainly wins.

Under the new calendar, other candidates have a chance for momentum-changing wins in the early primaries. If I remember correctly, the Iowa caucuses are set up so that a candidate must have a majority at each site to win. If the supporters of other candidates gang up on him, they can deny Mr. Romney the win. I'm guessing that Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, or Rick Perry wins the caucuses. If Herman Cain wins Iowa, wins South Carolina, and pulls the upset in Florida, the balance changes quickly. Romney wins in Michigan and Arizona could help reverse the momentum, but the early loading could allow a challenger to get momentum and be in a better position.

MassCon said...

Bosman, don't forget that Colorado and Minnesota go before Super Tuesday, and I think the date is Feb 7.

Anonymous said...

Anon, Cain is toast after this week. He's painfully not ready for prime time, and even his most ardent supporters will soon have to admit it.

He was just another flash in the pan, like so many others. The only one who can seriously challenge Romney now is either Perry the dunce, or possible Newt. Although I don't see either happening.