Monday, October 17, 2011

CNN/ORC Poll: Romney & Cain neck and neck

GOP Nomination: (results from September 26)

Mitt Romney 26% (22%)
Herman Cain 25% (9%)
Rick Perry 13% (30%)
Ron Paul 9% (7%)
Newt Gingrich 8% (11%)
Michele Bachmann 6% (6%)
Rick Santorum 2% (3%)
Jon Huntsman 1% (1%)
Interviews with 1,007 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on October 14-16, 2011. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 925 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3 percentage points).
The crosstabs can be viewed here.

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Terrye said...

I wonder if Cain can actually maintain this.

corep said...

i like the migration of 4% to romney. that is two polls in a row debunking the 23-24% plateau for Romney

Anonymous said...

We all like seeing Newt Gingrich in the debates, but his campaign is in debt. He'll always get some good responses in polls because he's a popular figure in GOP circles. Even so, he's not going to win the nomination. When he drops out of the race, most of his support will likely go to Mitt Romney. That support will put Mr. Romney near 35%. Michele Bachmann isn't likely to top 10% again in the polls. She is a good fundraiser, and she'll probably avoid going into debt. Even so, she will be dropping out of the race at some point. Her support isn't that much more likely to go to Herman Cain than to Mitt Romney. Her more vocal supporters will never support Mitt Romney, but some will. Rick Santorum likely has a little bit of hard core pro-life support and some support because he is a knowledgeable, serious statesman. His hard core pro-life support may shift towards Mr. Cain, but those who follow him because he knows the issues well and has been a responsible public servant will likely to go Mitt Romney. Again, his dropping out will be neutral. Jon Huntsman has to be wondering at some point why anyone thought that he could make a run for the nomination. A few Mormons may still be waiting to see which Mormon they support. Moderate Republicans may still be clinging to his candidacy as well. When he quits, his people will likely support Mr. Romney. These drops should bring Mr. Romney to 40%.

At that point, we'll be looking at a race among Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and Ron Paul. Many of the "anyone but Romney" people in the Perry camp have already defected to Herman Cain. They don't really like anyone. They are simply motivated by a passionate hatred of Mr. Romney. The remaining 13% who like Mr. Perry may split about evenly for Mr. Romney and Mr. Cain. The Ron Paul supporters will continue to support Ron Paul. Rick Perry will try to hang on for a long time. His supporters may not be available to other campaigns until after Super Tuesday. Once he has to withdraw, Mr. Romney could pick up another five or six percent support. Now, Mr. Romney is up to about 45%.

This poll also had 10% who didn't know, wouldn't say, hadn't decided, or supported someone else. Few of them will be Ron Paul types, so none will go to him. If the rest split evenly between Mr. Romney and Mr. Cain, Mr. Romney picks up another 5%. That total puts Mr. Romney at 50%, Mr. Cain at 40%, and Ron Paul at about 10%.

Mr. Romney is going to win some "winner take all" states in the early contests. He'll remain even during the middle contests that award delegates proportionally. At the end when states can hold "winner take all" primaries again, his 50% to 40% advantage means that he'll be picking up all of these delegates again.

Mr. Romney has the clear path to the nomination.