With Palin in the race, there would be three “big” figures — Palin, Perry and Bachmann— all competing for tea party voters. Assuming none of the three run away with the support of a large number of tea partiers — and Perry clearly has the best chance to do that — the resulting fracturing of the vote would allow Romney a path to victory.Jonathan Bernstein has a different view and feels that a Palin run could possibly hurt both Perry and Romney by turning off the needed independents in the to win the general. I personally think it's a little out there reads a little like a soap opera:
(An interesting related thought: If Palin does run, Romney would need to seriously re-consider his plan to downplay the Iowa caucuses, since Bachmann’s strength there coupled with Perry and Palin going all-out would make a victory in the Hawkeye State a real possibility for him.)
The other way that a Palin candidacy would help Romney is to allow him convince more establishment types that he is the only candidate in the field who can maximize the party’s opportunity against President Obama in 2012.
Meanwhile, Palin running creates a fair number of risks for both Perry and Romney. The first is that based on her record, she certainly cannot be trusted to be a loyal party soldier. We don’t know how that might play out in the actual campaign, but if I were running the winning candidate’s campaign I wouldn’t want a candidate around who is known to hold grudges and act on them, and who has shown little respect for party norms and interests. Moreover, since Palin is massively unpopular with the general electorate, having her in the news constantly would remind people why they don’t like Republicans very much these days. The nominee will eventually eclipse her. . . but if she is able to rally her supporters enough to win a fair number of delegates, she could easily create all sorts of unwanted distractions all summer and through the Republican convention. Granted, there’s a risk of that happening anyway, but it surely would be worse if she became a real candidate and the press has that excuse to swarm to her.He also points out the following:
The only real reason that she’s not a plausible nominee even now is because she still hasn’t shown that she is willing and able to do the things that nominees do. If it turns out that she is capable – of retail campaigning and working the activists and party leaders outside of her core supporters, and reciting talking points well enough to sound as though she knows the issues — well, it’s unlikely, but she might have a shot at winning.Alright now, Who's theory (If any) is closer to reality? Maybe you have a theory that's better?
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