Thursday, September 1, 2011

Would a Palin run help or hurt Romney or Perry?

Here is Chris Cillizza's and Aaron Blake's take:
With Palin in the race, there would be three “big” figures — Palin, Perry and Bachmann— all competing for tea party voters. Assuming none of the three run away with the support of a large number of tea partiers — and Perry clearly has the best chance to do that — the resulting fracturing of the vote would allow Romney a path to victory.

(An interesting related thought: If Palin does run, Romney would need to seriously re-consider his plan to downplay the Iowa caucuses, since Bachmann’s strength there coupled with Perry and Palin going all-out would make a victory in the Hawkeye State a real possibility for him.)

The other way that a Palin candidacy would help Romney is to allow him convince more establishment types that he is the only candidate in the field who can maximize the party’s opportunity against President Obama in 2012.
Jonathan Bernstein has a different view and feels that a Palin run could possibly hurt both Perry and Romney by turning off the needed independents in the to win the general. I personally think it's a little out there reads a little like a soap opera:
Meanwhile, Palin running creates a fair number of risks for both Perry and Romney. The first is that based on her record, she certainly cannot be trusted to be a loyal party soldier. We don’t know how that might play out in the actual campaign, but if I were running the winning candidate’s campaign I wouldn’t want a candidate around who is known to hold grudges and act on them, and who has shown little respect for party norms and interests. Moreover, since Palin is massively unpopular with the general electorate, having her in the news constantly would remind people why they don’t like Republicans very much these days. The nominee will eventually eclipse her. . . but if she is able to rally her supporters enough to win a fair number of delegates, she could easily create all sorts of unwanted distractions all summer and through the Republican convention. Granted, there’s a risk of that happening anyway, but it surely would be worse if she became a real candidate and the press has that excuse to swarm to her.
He also points out the following:
The only real reason that she’s not a plausible nominee even now is because she still hasn’t shown that she is willing and able to do the things that nominees do. If it turns out that she is capable – of retail campaigning and working the activists and party leaders outside of her core supporters, and reciting talking points well enough to sound as though she knows the issues — well, it’s unlikely, but she might have a shot at winning.
Alright now, Who's theory (If any) is closer to reality? Maybe you have a theory that's better?

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30 comments:

Anonymous said...

Parts of all of the theories are wrong...so very wrong that it makes it hard to choose one. If you lok at recent polling...Perry doe not gain much from Palin not being in the race...so the thought that she attracts the same voters is questionable. The theory that she doesn't know the issues is either confounded by someone who doesn't know the issues, aren't paying attention, or are purposefully trying to further a false narrative...which do you think is right?

jerseyrepublican

Ohio JOE said...

"The theory that she doesn't know the issues is either confounded by someone who doesn't know the issues, aren't paying attention, or are purposefully trying to further a false narrative...which do you think is right?" Bingo!!

Well, I can only speak for myself. At this point, if push comes to shove, I would vote for Mr. Perry over Mr. Romney. However, even if Mrs. Palin did not enter the race, there is probably at least three people that I would vote for ahead of Mr. Perry and at least two of those three have a very small chance of winning. So it probabaly does not hurt either or help either of the candidates. While I for one would be willing to vote for Mrs. Palin or another non-Perry/Romney candidate, others will vote for Mr. Perry (or Mr. Romney) even if Mrs. Palin enters because they are content to chose between the top two candidates and ignore the third.

Anonymous said...

OJ, the question is...how long would Palin be the third? There are so many possibilities out there this campaign cycle that I'm not sure how this thing could turn out...I would be only a little surprised if Huntsman became the nominee.

For instance Perry could do horrible in his first debate and the luster could wear off very quickly in his soaring poll numbers. Romney could regain some traction with a stronger than usual debate performance and take back some of his support from Perrry. Palin could enter this thing and take at least half of Bachmann's support putting Romney and Palin in a statistical dead heat for 2nd place. Palin could enter, do amazingly well and take some of Perry's support. It's just too hard to tell right now.

jerseyrepublican

Ohio JOE said...

True Jersey, the campaign could take swists and turns as both Mr. Perry and Mr. Romney fall. However, right now she is in Third. I'd say that Mr. Perry has over a third of the delegates, Mr. Romney over a fifth and Mrs. Palin over a tenth. In any event, I will support her if she runs, but unfortunately, she is getting speezed out by the big two. Hopefully the minor candidates will go to her, but time will tell.

Right Wingnut said...

Oj,

She'll get an 8-10 point bump post announcement.

Right Wingnut said...

It will be a three way race...with all three polling in the 15-20% range in the initial stages.

Right Wingnut said...

Bachmann will be toast at the point.

Anonymous said...

OJ, I have to agree with RW. Franklin over at race has made an interesting point, over and over again(over and over again it is ignored at Race...big surprise) In most of these polls only about 25% of the respondents believe Palin will enter the race, she's consistently getting 10-12% of that 25%. If she announces, Palin will get a 5-10% bump that she most likely will hold onto and then possibly build upon.

jerseyrepublican

Anonymous said...

If Palin enters, this race will be a 3 person race. Te question is...if Palin does enter...should she wait until after the next debate? Should she give Perry the rope to hang himself? Or, should she overshadow his appearance at the debate by being a candidate?

I don't think she'll announce before next week's debate but I think she will before the TP debate in Florida and be on the stage in Florida.

jerseyrepublican

Ohio JOE said...

Yes, I hope the bounce will be big enough. We will see. Shhhh, it is nice to see that she is polling much better than Mr. Pawlenty, Mr. Huntman and Mr. Cain. None of them are bad men, but they are all bad campaigners.

Anonymous said...

OJ, with all due respect, I just don't get you lately. You are one of the biggest Palin supporters yet you feel she's not going to enter the race...you feel the race is already set when the primary has barely begun...in fact I could argue that this primary is on hold until both Palin and Giuliani announce their intentions...since both would have an impact on the two front-runners numbers. Also it's only a matter of weeks until some of the 3rd tier candidates bow out of the race...where will their support go? This thing hasn't even begun and I am really curious how you got to your current thought process?

jerseyrepublican

Ohio JOE said...

"This thing hasn't even begun and I am really curious how you got to your current thought process?" True, I have got some bad vibes over the past few weeks. I hope I am wrong, but we will see.

Massachusetts Conservative said...

I saw Dick Morris on O'Reilly last night (yes, he is usually wrong about everything) but he said something I thought made a lot of sense.

If Palin jumps in, she will draw all the criticism from the media constantly, meaning Perry and Romney will not get vetted.

Of course, we all know how vetted Romney is, and how un-vetted Perry is.

So essentially, if Palin gets in, Perry will skate by with the nomination, unvetted.

Anonymous said...

MassCon...I thought Palin helps Romney? Don't trust Morris...his opinions usually have one similarity...they're usually wrong.

jerseyrepublican

Anonymous said...

OJ, may I ask you to elaborate on these bad vibes?

jerseyrepublican

Anonymous said...

Ahhh so nice to see the queen's big 3 (RW,OJ,JR) all on here and professing their love for the queen, while awaiting her big announcement day.

In my own personal opinion which I am entitled to, the queen of queens in NOT running,( I know you all disagree,but we'll see) and Ill say if she did run, she has a GREAT chance of winning the nomination,(agree?). However, Obama would easily easily easily beat her. He would love nothing more than to run against her majesty. So I would say to the people, even to the queens peasants and nobles, lets not vote for who we want to win the gop nomination, if our goal is to unseat obama, then we must vote for who can BEAT him.

GOD SAVE THE QUEEN!!!!

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:14,

Is that Ellie or dd? I am thinking dd because you didn't say quitter queen. I don't know if you got the memo but the Rombots need Palin to enter the race so she can save Romney from the Satanic Perry. Why do you think they have been laying off Palin lately?

What a shame that all you got in your sad little life is your jealous hatred of Palin. It really is pretty pathetic. If Palin doesn't run, I know I will live and support the GOP nominee, whomever it may be. As for you, you will still be a pathetic loser. Have a nice day, chump.

A.J.R.

Ohio JOE said...

"Is that Ellie or dd?" Haha, I would not rule out the possibility that it is Pollman. Yes, it is funny how a lady who has not even announced can generate so much excitement from her opponents. Ya gotta love it.

Ohio JOE said...

"OJ, may I ask you to elaborate on these bad vibes?"

Well, on the national level, poll after poll has shown who is in first second and third. Also, from talking to everyday people over the past few weeks, I just feel that the race is moving in certain directions. Let's just say that even if I were a betting man, I would not bet that Mrs. Palin will run. I certainly would not bet against her yet, but the proposition is becoming more even. Maybe it is just the summer time blues.

Revolution 2012 said...

I'm more alligned with the Cillizza scenario.

I think Many of Perry's supporters were Palins who got tired of waiting and are not buying her still being polled and have crossed over.

If Palin gets in, I see many going back to her. I also see here going after Perry for the rest.

Ohio JOE said...

"I think Many of Perry's supporters were Palins who got tired of waiting and are not buying her still being polled and have crossed over." While that is partially, true, Mrs. Palin is not the only candidate to lose supporters to Mr. Perry. Mr. Romney for one has also lost supporter to Mr. Perry. Some Perryites could go back eventually to either Mrs. Palin or Mr. Romney, many Perryites are former Huckabeeites.

Anonymous said...

And the best part of a Palin run? she would lose so badly that she would no longer be 'relevant' to anyone but a handfull of die hards. she'd be forced back to one of her many homes to toss cans at the fridge.

Anonymous said...

Interesting to speculate, isn't it? I, also, believe that many of Perry's supporters like Palin so well that he would lose more net support than Romney if Palin enters the race. I guess we'll only find out if Palin enters.

A reminder to you Palin fans; I have always been polite about Sarah, so I don't want to be accused of changing my behavior since Perry got in the race!

OJ, I hope you will remember that many Texans are saying that Perry is "All hat and no cattle." That is exactly the opinion of both of my (conservative) brothers who live in Texas.

AZ

Ohio JOE said...

"she would lose so badly" That is funny coming from the Pawlenty camp or are you a Huntmanite Anon. Hahahaha. You guys who cannot crack 2% are funny lecturing the rest of us.

Ohio JOE said...

Yes AZ, I admit that you are among those who have not been nasty to Mrs. Palin. I must say that I find it funny that many in your camp are saying that Mr. Perry is worse than Mr. Huckabee, Mrs. Palin, Mr. Brownback, Mr. Thompson, Dr. Paul, Mrs. Bachmann and whoever else. Again, I know that you are not apart of this, but I still tell you it is fun to watch. Again, whether or not Mrs. Palin enters the race, I hope my selection of candidates is bigger than Mr. Perry, Mr. Romney, Mr. Huntsman and Mr. Gingrich.

Right Wingnut said...

OJ,

I think you get the impression that everyone follows this stuff to the degree that we do. You speak in terms of Romney supporters, and Perry supporters...not everyone who offers their names to a pollster is necessarily a supporter. As we closer to February, that will change, but for now, these results are skewed by many things including hype and belief that specific candidates will even be on the ballot. Palin has a tremendous disadvantage in that only 20% of the respondents believe she's running.

Ohio JOE said...

You have a point RW.

Massachusetts Conservative said...

What's with all the Palin haters on this site?

Every SINGLE day, when I come to this blog, there's always some female blogger on here, bickering about Sarah Palin.

Can we move on already???

Jesus Christ!

She's not running anyway! And if she does, who cares!

Rick Perry is MUCH worse than Palin. At least Palin cares about ending corruption. Rick Perry's whole life is corruption. He was probably already paying kids to do his homework in 2nd grade. Explains his 1.9 GPA in animal science.

Ohio JOE said...

"Rick Perry is MUCH worse than Palin." Yes, it is funny that all of a sudden Mr. Perry is the boggy. I wish he was half as bad as they say.

Anonymous said...

MASSCON, please refrain from using the Savior's name as a curse on this site. Vile words offend me, but nothing offends me more than taking His name in vain, as I revere Him and respect Him. I ask you to please respect this in all future comments; it is very important to me.

Thank you.

AZ