Normally, and understandably, I would not write a blog about a poll that showed Mitt losing by a large margin. But, this new PPP poll out this morning, has some good stuff in it for Mitt. Let's take a look
** Differences with the PPP poll of 3 weeks ago......August 24, 2011
This poll had a higher MOE of 4.4 % compared to earlier 3.8 %, because of smaller
This poll had a sample of 76 % conservative or very conservative. The earlier poll had 52 %
conservative or very conservative....a statistically significant sample size difference of
+ 50 % favoring Perry supporters. However,
Perry's favorability numbers have declined from + 47 % to + 34 % ( -30 % )
Romney's favorability numbers have increased from + 18 % to +20 % ( + 10 % )
** Other anomalies:
PPP samples 79 % Republicans and only 19% independents, even though over 20 of the
GOP primaries are OPEN and Independents are 30 + % of the voters. This is significant as
we will see below.
Now, as to the poll, given the points above
Perry still leads Romney by 12 % points , in a two way race, closer to the wide MOE ,
but still double digits.
But, Romney has cut the earlier gap by 25 % after debate 1. We'll soon see the results of
Romney leads Perry 43-39 % % among Independents in a two way race, with a big MOE
Perry leads Romney by 27 -23 % AMONG GOP VOTERS OPPOSED TO ENDING
MEDICARE, but Perry leads Romney by 43 - 5 % AMONG GOP VOTERS IN FAVOR
OF ENDING MEDICARE. According to PPP, "..this accounts for much of Perry's
overall lead." This is electoral college suicide, my friends.
So, if you look within the numbers, the trending is pretty good for Mitt. And these
numbers were before Monday's debate. So, we should see some further favorable