Wednesday, September 14, 2011


Normally, and understandably, I would not write a blog about a poll that showed Mitt losing by a large margin. But, this new PPP poll out this morning, has some good stuff in it for Mitt. Let's take a look

** Differences with the PPP poll of 3 weeks ago......August 24, 2011
This poll had a higher MOE of 4.4 % compared to earlier 3.8 %, because of smaller

This poll had a sample of 76 % conservative or very conservative. The earlier poll had 52 %
conservative or very conservative....a statistically significant sample size difference of
+ 50 % favoring Perry supporters. However,

Perry's favorability numbers have declined from + 47 % to + 34 % ( -30 % )
Romney's favorability numbers have increased from + 18 % to +20 % ( + 10 % )

** Other anomalies:
PPP samples 79 % Republicans and only 19% independents, even though over 20 of the
GOP primaries are OPEN and Independents are 30 + % of the voters. This is significant as
we will see below.

Now, as to the poll, given the points above
Perry still leads Romney by 12 % points , in a two way race, closer to the wide MOE ,
but still double digits.
But, Romney has cut the earlier gap by 25 % after debate 1. We'll soon see the results of
debate 2.

Romney leads Perry 43-39 % % among Independents in a two way race, with a big MOE

Perry leads Romney by 27 -23 % AMONG GOP VOTERS OPPOSED TO ENDING
MEDICARE, but Perry leads Romney by 43 - 5 % AMONG GOP VOTERS IN FAVOR
OF ENDING MEDICARE. According to PPP, "..this accounts for much of Perry's
overall lead." This is electoral college suicide, my friends.

So, if you look within the numbers, the trending is pretty good for Mitt. And these
numbers were before Monday's debate. So, we should see some further favorable



Massachusetts Conservative said...

Nice post, Craig. I like this news.

PPP is so bad... their samples are totally inconsistent from poll to poll.

I have a question... how come the formatting on all your writings is always so odd? I'm actually quite curious.

marK said...

Favorables - Schmayables. They mean next to nothing.

"Whom will you vote for", is the only question worth asking.

Running for the Presidency is an Ironman competition: a 2.4 mile Swim, a 112 mile bike ride, and finally a 26.2 mile marathon. The lead changes hands many, many times during a race.

Perry's surge is just the latest lead change. We've still got lots of campaigning to do.

craigs said...

Mass Con
LOL, Because I'm dumb when it comes to Formatting. Some would argue it is broader than that. But Bos adds the artwork and you're stuck with the goofy formatting