Sunday, May 15, 2011

Romney's Strategy

Last January, when I was still living in Tennessee, I helped out a friend who was running for State Senate. He lost. I wrote him a few months later to ask him what he thought went wrong. One of the things he told me was that he wished he had spent more time trying to convince the other candidate not to get in the race. He said that such a strategy can be uncomfortable, but it is often necessary in politics.

A few weeks ago, there was this interesting quote in Politico.
“Romney’s secret strategy is that no one else runs,” mused Republican media consultant Curt Anderson, who was Barbour’s political director at the RNC and a Romney adviser in 2008. “It’s working so far. If he can keep this running, he’ll be in business.”
The article was written after Barbour decided against a run. I never thought that Barbour could win, but I did think that Barbour would have been major competition for donors and establishment support, two things candidates need to win. Now that Huckabee has declined to run, Romney is down another major competitor. In fact, as I scan across the field, I really don't see many serious, non-Romney candidates.

Who are not the serious, non-Romney candidates?
 
Newt Gingrich 
Rick Santorum
Herman Cain
Donald Trump
Gary Johnson
Ron Paul
Sarah Palin (she is not competing for the same voter as Romney)

Who are the serious, non-Romney candidates?

Tim Pawlenty
Jon Huntsman (who I don't think can win the Republican nomination)
 
There is really only one candidate that I fear as a Romney supporter: Mitch Daniels. If Romney is going to win the invisible primary, then he needs to somehow convince Daniels not to run. He doesn't do this by directly talking to him (although that may not be out the cards). He does this by lining up support and raising a ton of money. If Daniels stays out of the race, then Romney really only has to worry about Pawlenty. 
The conventional wisdom is that Romney gets smoked because of his prior health care policies. That CW only works if there is a viable other option.

7 comments:

larry said...

If candidates are dropping like flies because they see that they couldn't compete against Romney because of him sewing up the big money and mega-organization, then it's a result rather than a strategy on his part.

It's kind of like, would you get in a foot race with someone who is inches away from the finish line already?

Anonymous said...

Pablo, nice article. I was very discouraged after the near-universal slapdown Romney's (I thought very good) presentation received. And it made me realize that I should brush up on Daniels, as the momentum seems to be in his direction, and he's someone I could support as a 2nd chioce.

My first question is what did you think of Romney's health care plan for the nation overall? And second, why at the moment are you a Romney supporter and not a Daniels supporter?

Great to have you back.
MikeZ

Pablo said...

Mike,

1. His policies are not bad. I think that he has an understanding of why health care prices are rising. His solution is to have a values-based approach to health care, as opposed to a pay-for-service approach. The problem is that this is also the approach that Obamacare takes too. Jonathan Cohn explains it well here -- http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-cohn/88357/romney-obama-massachusetts-mandate-health-reform

Once you eliminate the individual mandate, there are not a lot of policy ideas left on the table. I do think that Romney could do well though.

2. I am a Romney supporter and not a Daniels support for several reasons. First, Romney has a better record on health care. Rising health care prices are in my view the most important issue America faces, and I just think that Romney could do a better job. Second, Romney is running. Daniels may or may not. I would prefer that one of them gets it, so I am going to go with the guy that is already running strong.

Bill589 said...

A mayor, a governor, and some big oil companies, among others, have underestimated ‘the one who must not be named’ to their own demise. It is the battle she is used to. Always ridiculed as not a serious opponent.

I see a pattern, but I guess we will have to wait to see if history will continue to repeat itself.

GetReal said...

Those detractors all said the same thing in 2008 as well, and look at her now, flying around on Air Force Two.

Troy said...

@larry. It has been Romney's strategy all along. He is planning a shock and awe campaign with fundraising and be out in front with ideas and solutions. There is no inevitability but s there is Romney's strategy is to get as close as possible. If he gains the majority in all the early states he will gain even more fundraisers but also more critics and attacks. Should be fun to watch...

Dave said...

Now that Huck's out, Iowa is wide open and Mitt has the largest base of support in the state. That's not to say that SoCons won't coalesce against him in the last month or two. That could happen again, although it's less likely to work this time.

Winning Iowa and running the table in the first five contests is a strategy that came close to winning in 2008, but is once again a serious possibility for Mitt.