Wednesday, May 11, 2011

PPP Polling: Mitt Romney comes closest to Obama

Obama hasn't received a big increase in his reelection margins, but he is still in a healthy position against his potential Republican opponents. He's up 5 points on Mitt Romney at 47-42, numbers basically identical to Obama's 47-41 lead last month. The next best Republican is Mike Huckabee who trails 49-42, a shade worse than his 48-43 deficit in April. Obama's 52-38 lead over Newt Gingrich is exactly identical to where that match up was on the last poll. And Obama's up 17 on Sarah Palin at 54-37 and 18 on Donald Trump at 53-35.

The Republican primary poll we released yesterday showed that Trump's chances of winning the nomination have pretty much disintegrated, but he could still have a major impact on the race by running as an independent, as he has threatened to do in the past. Trump gets 16% as an independent against Barack Obama (46%) and Mitt Romney (33%). A Trump third party bid increases Obama's margin over Romney by 8 points because he pulls 20% of the GOP vote but only 6% of the Democratic vote. If Trump's goal is to stay in the spotlight as long as possible the independent bid would certainly achieve that...but it would also hand Obama reelection.
Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure:

Mike Huckabee 33/41/26 (-8)
Mitt Romney 32/41/27 (-9)
Mitch Daniels 14/33/53 (-19)
Newt Gingrich 29/53/18 (-24)
Sarah Palin 33/60/7 (-27)
Donald Trump 24/65/10 (-41)

Head-to-Head: (Obama/Candidate/Undecided)

Mitt Romney 47/42/11 (-5)
Mike Huckabee 49/42/9 (-7)
Newt Gingrich 52/38/10 (-14)
Sarah Palin 54/37/9 (-17)
Donald Trump 53/35/12 (--18)

3-Way contest with Trump as Independent:

Barack Obama 46%
Mitt Romney 33%
Donald Trump 16%
Undecided 5%

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat 40%
Republican 34%
Independent/Other 27%

PPP surveyed 814 American voters from May 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
The full story is here.
To view the crosstabs click the PPP icon below:

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BOSMAN said...

Romney and Huckabee once more are way ahead of the others:


Closer To Home said...

This is still just a registered voter survey. Real voters will move 5-6 points to the right based on turnout. That puts us at deadlock with Romney (Huckabee inside MOE) even in the middle of the OBL bounce.

Ann said...

Romney and Huckabee are in pretty good shape when you consider Obama's bounce in the polls.

Anonymous said...

I love these latest polls

Romney is the man!