Wednesday, May 11, 2011

NYT Forecast of the Republican Primary Field: Mitt Romney on Top

The NYT evaluated the Poll results since January 1, 2012 of the potential 2012 GOP candidates using 4 polling models:

Classical Model since 1/1/11

Classical Model since 4/1/11

Aggressive Model since 1/1/11

Aggressive Model since 4/1/11

All of which are explained in the HERE.

Here is a chart summarizing the 28 scientific polls that have been conducted on the Republican field since the start of the year, covering a total of 23 different candidates or prospective candidates using the 4 models above:

As part of the analysis, the candidates results were compared to the INTRADE betting lines. Some of the findings:
  • The models like Mr. Romney slightly more than the bettors do, although the difference is not large. Mr. Romney, in my view, has one major asset that is not well reflected in national polls, which is that he is strongly positioned in several early primary states (New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada). He also has one major liability, the health care legislation enacted in Massachusetts while he was governor.
  • All four of the polling models think Mike Huckabee is grossly undervalued by the bettors. I’ll be writing more about Mr. Huckabee in the next week or two, so we’ll leave it at that observation for now.
  • The models also think that Newt Gingrich is undervalued. I’ve been a skeptic of Mr. Gingrich’s chances, and widely known candidates who are getting only about 10 percent off the vote in polls have a very poor past record. At the same time, Mr. Gingrich is definitely running — and he has at least some popular support and at least some elite support. Even if you don’t like a company’s business model, there’s some point at which its stock price becomes low enough for it to be a good buy; that’s more or less how I feel about Mr. Gingrich right now.
  • The models think Mr. Daniels is somewhat overvalued by the bettors, and that Mr. Huntsman is grossly so. Mr. Huntsman is the one I feel more confident saying that about. He’s positioned pretty far to the left (relative to the Republican field) on a lot of issues, he’s getting a late start on his campaign, and he served in President Obama’s administration — in a foreign policy capacity, no less, an area where Mr. Obama should get high marks from voters. And Mr. Huntsman is averaging only about 1 percent in the polls so far. That’s an awful lot to overcome, no matter how talented the politician.
To see more findings and analysis, read the rest of the article HERE.
The ground rules used to assemble this data can be found HERE.

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Ann said...

It seems that quite a bit of data went into these results.

Although I have to admit, I don't understand a lot of the analysis.

Anonymous said...

more good news for Romney!


Revolution 2012 said...


Have you followed the links at the source?
Talk about over analysis.

Closer To Home said...

Huckabee is undervalued because he is being discounted because his chances of running at all are at best 50/50, even by his own statements.

Daniels and Huntsman are overvalued because they are the flavor of the month with the political punditry and their popularity with the masses haven't caught up, if it ever will.