Monday, May 23, 2011

Does Tim Pawlenty have a PLAN B?

When you look at the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida, I have to wonder if Tim Pawlenty has a PLAN B?

PLAN A: Pawlenty is betting it all on Iowa
The former Minnesota governor will make his first campaign appearance Monday since announcing his candidacy for president in an Internet video. The setting for his visit — one block away from the Iowa State Capitol — underscores how important the state's leadoff presidential caucuses are to his political future....
......If Pawlenty falls short, however, he'll have to reevaluate the viability of his bid for the Republican nomination, despite the two years' groundwork he's laid in his neighboring state.
"In Iowa, he is all in. All his cards are right out on the table," said Bob Haus, a veteran Iowa GOP strategist who managed Fred Thompson's 2008 caucus campaign and is uncommitted for 2012. "Pawlenty is trying to set himself as the main challenger to Mitt Romney."
Pawlenty's visit Monday will be his 14th to Iowa since the 2008 election, more than any candidate except former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
Read the full story HERE.

Pawlenty according to recent polls (1, 2) doesn't have a hill to climb in Iowa, he's got Mt. Everest.

With the absence of Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney has to be presumed as the front runner there. Ad in Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich and .....? One has to wonder, If Pawlenty will look back at this as his Don Quixote moment?

Maybe PLAN B really is his PLAN A? I mean, if he can hold out some how and make a fairly decent showing in the early states (2nd/3rd) perhaps he'll be able to lay claim to the. "Next In Line" label.

I can't imagine Mitt Romney choosing him as a running mate because there would be no strategic value to it.

Maybe I'm way off on this?
What Say You?


Doug NYC GOP said...

I don't think he has a Plan B.

I don't think he'll be the VP choice.

I do think he's a good guy and I agree with him on alot of issues.

Anonymous said...

I have a hard time seeing him being Romney's VP choice, so if he doesn't make it through Iowa well, it's difficult to know what will happen.


Anonymous said...

Mr. Pawlenty's speech this morning was very good. His videos have been great, and he has the right qualifications. His business background isn't as strong as that of some of the other candidates, but his more humble beginnings give him some appeal.

If he doesn't win Iowa, he may not have a good path to the nomination. I'm sick to death of GOP voters letting Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina pick our nominees. The only purpose for these states should be to highlight a relatively obscure candidate and give that candidate a chance to rise. These states should never be used to eliminate anyone. People who vote in the next five or six primaries should be ashamed of themselves if they change their votes simply because their favorite candidate did poorly in these first three contests.

South Carolina has a horrible habit of voting for candidates because it's "their turn." If they vote that way this time, they'll support Mitt Romney. In this case, I'm happy for that outcome because I still see Mr. Romney as the best candidate, but I hate seeing them vote for that reason. Because he was almost the VP choice in 2008, Tim Pawlenty might have a little bit of "my turn" claim. His evangelical Christian beliefs might play better than Mr. Romney's Mormonism in South Carolina. I'm angry about people voting over that issue as well, but the result could be a surprise Tim Pawlenty win in South Carolina. A second or third place finish in Iowa followed by a win in South Carolina could make Tim Pawlenty a very strong candidate for all of the wrong reasons.

Mr. Pawlenty could be a good running mate for Mr. Romney. His evangelical Christian faith would help keep some people from abandoning the ticket over Mormonism. His more humble beginnings would give the ticket more blue collar appeal. His re-election in Minnesota shows that he can win more than one governor's race. If he comes in second or third in Iowa only because he splits votes with Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Herman Cain, he would be a good choice to secure the social conservative voters in Iowa during the general election. Iowa is a state that the GOP needs to swing in order to win.

Part of knowing whether Mr. Pawlenty would be a good running mate will be seeing how he does in some primaries. That's another reason that the party needs him to stay in the race beyond the first three or four primaries. If he does a good job of holding the traditional Republican votes in Virginia and North Carolina, he could help a Romney ticket swing these two important states. If he shows any strength in Wisconsin in the primary, he might be able to force the Democrats to spend resources to hold Wisconsin. If picking him shows that the GOP is not just a southern regional party, he could help Mr. Romney secure Michigan which is winnable if Mr. Romney is the nominee.

Anonymous said...

I think in Pawlenrt's case, "He's a legend in his own mind".


Anonymous said...

don't think strategic value is the motivating factor for Mitt choosing his VP. I think he cares more about ability to lead and will choose the a conservative who can be ready and depended on to be president. It may not be someone with a lot of government experience but definitely someone who is a strong conservative.