Friday, March 25, 2011

PPP Polling: Romney top Republican in Michigan

Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure:

Mitt Romney 37/45/18 (-8)
Mike Huckabee 36/45/18 (-9)
Scott Walker 22/37/41 (-15)
Newt Gingrich 27/57/17 (-30)
Sarah Palin 31/61/7 (-30)

Head-to-Head: (Obama/Candidate/Undecided)

Mitt Romney 48/41/11 (-7)
Mike Huckabee 50/41/9 (-9)
Newt Gingrich 53/37/11 (-16)
Sarah Palin 55/35/10 (-20)
Scott Walker 52/32/16 (-20)
PPP surveyed 502 Michigan voters from March 18th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
To view the crosstabs click the PPP icon below:


Bill589 said...

I’ve been ‘studying’ politics now for more than a year, and I know a lot less than I thought I would by this time. . . .

Anyway - I’ve been noticing that all Republican presidential hopefuls almost always have a negative favorable score. Often our best just appears to be the least bad. I’m no expert, but this doesn’t look good for our team. Hopefully I’m making too much of it this far out, but I’m just saying.

Johan "Mcon" said...

I’ll repeat a pair of comments here that I made on the Michigan PPP results thread on r42012 because it bears repeating and it isn’t entirely off topic.

“Party ID breakdown: 41% (35%) Democrat; 28% (35%) Republican; 31% (29%) Independent/Other”

What a joke!!! Did something big happen recently to make the electorate lurch even further left. Talk about putting your thumb on the scale. Funny thing is even with that 6% democrat shift the results barely moved at all. I’m thinking Michigan is in play.

According to the CCN exit polls for Michigan from 2008, the party id was aprox 41,29,29. However, in 2010 snyder won the governorship by 18% and we picked up two seats there as well. No rational person could believe the party id makeup would be similar to 2008, a year when a transformational hope and change black president brought out tons of new voters. Only Daily Kos in their wildest fantasies think that scenario will repeat itself. That said what happened to cause them to swing the sample makeup to the left? This poll by itself discredits PPP for me.

I used to think them reasonable.

As a follow up, I have done some homework.

-In 2000, 4,232,711 people voted in the presidential election in MI.

-In 2004, 4,839,252 voters participated in the presidential election in MI. The CNN exit poll party breakdown was 39%/34%/27% DRI

-In 2008, 5,010,299 participated in the presidential election in MI with the aforementioned party makeup.

-Michigan between 2000-2010 was the only state to lose population, decreasing by .6%.

So PPP expects us to believe the party makeup will match and even be slightly to the left of 2008, a year which exceeded previous presidential election turnout in state that is losing its population due to horrid democratic mismanagement. And combine those facts with a huge republican victory in 2010.

Color me unimpressed.

Dave said...

The Epic MRA poll showed Romney beating Obama in Michigan, and everyone else losing to him. Especially in a state like Michigan, you can't use 2008 turnout models to base polls on, and, as MCON observed, this one goes beyond 2008.

Michigan is in play IF, and Only if, Romney is our nominee.

Bill589 said...

Dave - Sarah Palin disagreed with McCain on Michigan. I believe she would disagree with you now.

IMO - She has been diminished by the Left’s media lies more than any other potential candidate. Therefore, through the campaign she has the most to gain by the truth being exposed.

Bill589 said...

BTW it still surprises me, in a bad way, that usually all our guys have negatives for favorables. I was thinking though, that how I understand it, in 2007 much of the smart money was on Rudy and Hillary. If that’s true I suppose nobody can say much at this time.

And I thought it would be easier than predicting sports.

Anonymous said...

Bill589...don't think for one minute the absolute truth about Palin won't be told. She has more skeletons in her closets than Lindsay Lohan. The GOP will have a holiday as they continue spreading the truth about the quitter. It's not the left who's bringing Palin down, it's the GOP. She also does a pretty good job all by herself.

Bill589 said...

Anon - You are right. The establishment of both parties have been working to bring her down. (Which makes me like her more. Think ‘TPM’.) And she is still standing. The truth is on her side, which shows me that you don’t know Palin.
But you will.