Thursday, March 17, 2011

PPP Polling: Republicans trail Obama in Ohio by six to sixteen points

When PPP polled the presidential race in Ohio last December, the state’s electoral votes looked in danger of going back to the GOP after President Obama took the state over John McCain by less than five points in 2008. His party’s fortunes in a lot of blue-collar, heavily white Midwestern and Northeastern states had soured, and there was grumbling even within his own base. But a lot of that has abated as Democrats are reengaged, and independents are turning back Democrats’ way. The president now leads four potential Republican nominees by margins greater than his 2008 victory. Obama tops Mitt Romney, 46-40, after leading only 44-42 in the previous survey. He leads Mike Huckabee, 48-41 (45-44), Newt Gingrich 50-38 (47-41), and Sarah Palin 52-36 (49-42).

The parties are pretty much polarized, so the differences come with independents. Romney is now the only Republican to lead the president with independents, and barely (39-37, down slightly from 40-34). Huckabee had a 42-39 lead with them last poll, but now trails 44-36. Palin has declined with these voters from a 45-42 deficit to a whopping 49-32, and Gingrich from trailing 40-38 to 45-30.
Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure:

Mike Huckabee 36/42/22 (-6)
Mitt Romney 33/43/24 (-10)
Sarah Palin 31/59/10 (-28)
Newt Gingrich 24/56/20 (-32)

Head-to-Head: (Obama/Candidate/Undecided)

Mitt Romney 46/40/14 (-6)
Mike Huckabee 48/41/11 (-7)
Newt Gingrich 50/38/12 (-12)
Sarah Palin 52/36/11 (-16)
PPP surveyed 559 Ohio voters from March 10th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is+/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduceadditional error that is more difficult to quantify.
To view the crosstabs click the PPP icon below:

6 comments:

DanL said...

I wonder how Charlie Sheen is polling in Ohio.

Anonymous said...

Better than Palin!

Bachmann/Sheen

Anonymous said...

Romney and Huckabee are still within the MOE with Obuma.

Anonymous said...

Romney once again is the closest to Obama in match-ups.

zeke

Granny T said...

Romney once again is the closest to Obama in match-ups.

Huckabee polled best in Ohio in the last poll they did in Dec. Huckabee's gaffes could have caused his 3 point drop from last time. I'm not sure what caused Romney's 2 point drop or Ginrich's 3 point drop or Palin's 6 point drop.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Presidential Survey
PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Presidential Survey

* Barack Obama 46% (44%)
* Mitt Romney 40% (42%)

* Barack Obama 48% (45%)
* Mike Huckabee 41% (44%)

* Barack Obama 50% (47%)
* Newt Gingrich 38% (41%)

* Barack Obama 52% (49%)
* Sarah Palin 36% (42%)

[big clip]

Results from the poll conducted December 10-12, 2010 are in parentheses.


http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2011/03/poll-watch-ppp-d-ohio-2012-presidential.html

Dave said...

What caused the drop of Republican candidates is PPP's sample, which contained 43% Dems and 35% Republicans. This, in a state with 13 Republcan Congressment and 5 Democrats.

Kos does stuff like this. They don't deserve to be taken seriously.