Thursday, February 17, 2011

PPP Polling: Obama ties Palin but trails everyone else in Tennessee

Tennessee was a rare state where Barack Obama performed worse in 2008 than John Kerry did in 2004, albeit by less than one point on the margin. But the state now joins red-turned-blue neighbors North Carolina and Virginia as states where Obama has actually improved since the last election. While he lost to John McCain by 15 points last time, he now trails next year's crop of Republican frontrunners by no more than 12. 
Neighboring Arkansas' Mike Huckabee typically does best against the president inSouthern states, and he comes closest to matching McCain's margin of victory here, 53-41. The other candidate who usually runs closest to Obama, Mitt Romney, beats himhere, 48-41. But neighboring Georgia's Newt Gingrich can manage only a 46-43 lead,and Sarah Palin actually ties the president at 45%.
Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure:

Mike Huckabee 50/29/21 (+21)
Mitt Romney 33/41/26 (-8)
Sarah Palin 39/51/10 (-12)
Newt Gingrich 30/49/21 (-19)

Head-to-Head: (Obama/Candidate/Undecided)

Mike Huckabee 41/53/6 (+12)
Mitt Romney 41/48/11 (+7)
Newt Gingrich 43/46/11 (+3)
Sarah Palin 45/45/9 ( - )
PPP surveyed 500 Tennessee voters from February 9th to 13th. The survey’s margin oferror is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, mayintroduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

To view the crosstabs click the PPP icon below:


Anonymous said...

Tennessee is one state where I would think any Republican could beat Obana.

Then again, Palin isn't any Republican.


Anonymous said...


Do you really think Palin would lose Tennessee? I know you don't like her and we can debate if she can win in 2012 but she isn't going to lose Tennessee or Texas or South Dakota or a lot of the other Red States that McCain won in 2012.

I honestly don't know why so many people (on all sides) get so worked up about polls 12 months before the first primary and 19 months until the general election. So many things can change in the coming year. If we went by the polls in early 2007, it should have been Clinton vs. Giuliani in the 2008 elections. How did that turn out?

Just to make myself crystal clear, I would be saying the exact same thing regardless if Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Micky Mouse or Optimus Prime was ahead in the polls at this time.


Anonymous said...


Now how would all these polling companies feel if everyone thought like you?

BTW, there have been MONTHS of polling. Palin is heading in the wrong direction as time goes on.


kelly said...

It's true that it is a year out, but if you read these polls closely, where Palin is concerned, most people have pretty much made their minds up on her.

Ann said...

Those are terrible numbers for Palin in my birth state.

phil said...

It's simple.

Palin can't win the general election.

ConMan said...

It will be all over by Tenn.