Tuesday, February 1, 2011

PPP Polling: Jim DeMint is SC Republicans choice for President

Jim DeMint would lead in the Republican primary for President in South Carolina if he decided to run, although GOP voters in the state seem a little bit ambivalent about a potential candidacy despite his popularity. If DeMint doesn't run Mike Huckabee is the favorite, continuing the momentum he's shown in PPP polling across the country so far in 2011.
Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure:
Jim DeMint 77/12/11 (+65)
Mike Huckabee 72/16/12 (+56)
Mitt Romney 60/22/18 (+38)
Sarah Palin 61/28/10 (+33)
Newt Gingrich 54/25/21 (+29)

If the Republican candidates for President next year were Jim DeMint, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you vote for?

Jim DeMint 24%
Mike Huckabee 20%
Mitt Romney 17%
Sarah Palin 12%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Ron Paul 4%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Mitch Daniels 2%
Someone else/Undecided 8%


If the Republican candidates for President next year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you vote for?

Mike Huckabee 26%
Mitt Romney 20%
Sarah Palin 18%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Ron Paul 7%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Mitch Daniels 3%
Someone else/Undecided 8%
PPP surveyed 559 South Carolina Republican primary voters from January 28th to 30th.
The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed
and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Click the PPP icon below for the crosstabs:

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

If DeMint runs, kiss Huckabee goodbye!

zeke

Romney & DeMint in 2012!

zeke

TexasConservative said...

Bosman, not sure if you want to add this to the post or leave it in the comment section, but here is the data from May 2010

Gingrich 25%
Romney 24%
Palin 22%
Huckabee 19%
Paul 7%

When DeMint is added into the equation:
DeMint 29%
Gingrich and Romney 16%
Palin and Huckabee 15%
Paul 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PresIAMISC_531.pdf

Dave said...

Frankly I don't trust PPP's polling. Go to Real Clear Politics, find the left-hand column and go down to 2012 Republican Presidential Polling and click.

What you will see is 7 national polls done by 7 different polling firms, 5 of which have Romney leading....and 2 of which have Huckabee leading. One of the latter is an ABC poll that has the Huckster up by 2 points.

And then we have the PPP poll which has him up by 10! You could call it an outlier, but the pattern is so persistent in State polls, that I prefer to call it deliberate distortion.

As for the South Carolina poll, I'll wait to comment after I see a REAL SC poll.

Doug NYC GOP said...

This must be wrong.

I thought Romney was toast in the south.
I thought Romney would be sunk by HC.
I thought Romney was supposed be 4th or 5th.

Hmmmm.....I guess I have to wait for the influential and political savvy people in SC to really start paying atten and THEN watchout!

Granny T said...

Doug,
I agree with your post. This poll shows us that Romney does better in the south than people thought. I also agree with the PPP blog:

If you're going to declare winners and losers in this poll the winners are Huckabee and Romney and the losers are Palin and Gingrich. Not winning South Carolina in 2008 punctured Huckabee's chances at winning the nomination but it looks like he'd be able to change that outcome if he gave it a second try. Romney has been polling fourth in a lot of other Southern states so for him to be within striking distance of Huckabee and beating Palin and Gingrich with this particularly conservative primary electorate are very good signs.

I'm hoping to get more of the poll results before updating my summary. FYI: I plan on giving DeMint the win, Huckabee 2nd, Romney 3rd, and Palin 4th. IF DeMint should make a public statement like Pence did, I'll update my summary until we get new polling. Otherwise, we'll assume DeMint has as much of a chance to be running as the others.

Interesting information: Romney currently has wins in both Massachusetts and Michigan, Huckabee currently has the win in his new home state of Florida (Arkansas hasn't been polled yet), Pawlenty has the win for Minnesota, Huckabee has the win in Palin's home state of Alaska - with Romney and Gingrich tied for a very close 2nd with 1 point behind Huckabee.

Granny T said...

Two parts from Aron's article with my comments in brackets []:

With DeMint:
* Jim DeMint 24% (21%)[+3]
* Mike Huckabee 20% (15%)[+5]
* Mitt Romney 17% (16%) [+1]
* Sarah Palin 12% (15%) [-3]
* Newt Gingrich 10% (16%) [-6]
* Ron Paul 4% (7%) [-3]
* Tim Pawlenty 3%
* Mitch Daniels 2%
* Someone else/Undecided 8%


Without DeMint:
* Mike Huckabee 26% (19%)[+7]
* Mitt Romney 20% (24%)[-4]
* Sarah Palin 18% (22%)[-4]
* Newt Gingrich 13% (25%)[-12]
* Ron Paul 7% (7%)[no change]
* Tim Pawlenty 4%
* Mitch Daniels 3%
* Someone else/Undecided 8%

Revolution 2010 said...

It would be FANTASTIC if DeMint decides to run.

Romney / DeMint in 2012!

BOSMAN said...

Lets see:

1. DeMint enters race.
2. comes in 5 or 6 in Iowa and NH.
3. comes in 1st in SC
4. Withdraws from race and endorses Romney.

How's that sound?

Ann said...

Demint's candidacy would certainly change things for Palin (Tea Party) and especially Huckabee (SC and the south.

Corep said...

Bos-
i think that demint would do better than 5 or 6 in IA. I would say 3-4 is my guess.

but i like how the last part rolls out.


would like to see a poll without palin and huckabee in some of these states. that would be worth something

ConMan said...

Bos,

You left out your punch line:

Romney / DeMint in 2012!

BOSMAN said...

ConMan,

You're right!

phil said...

A DeMint candidacy really would change things for Huckabee.