Sunday, February 13, 2011

Egypt Is Not Like Iran

Last week Sarah Palin tweeted, "Media: ask "Will Obama Admin exert as much 'constructive' pressure on Iranian govt to change & allow freedom ~ as they just did for Egypt?"

It is not clear if Palin is suggesting from this tweet that Obama should have used more forceful language in 2009 to instigate a revolution in Iran or if she is just dinging the administration for not speaking up enough for Iran's crackdown of its protesters. Either way, one thing seems to be clear from events in both countries: Egypt 2011 is not quite the same as Iran 2009. 

First, the Iranian elections were accurate. There have been three polls conducted by three different sources since 2009 that show the same thing. The current Iranian regime has the support of at least 2/3rds of the people. One project, conducted by the University of Maryland, showed that four out of five of the 1,003 Iranian respondents interviewed believe that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the legitimate leader of Iran. The poll also showed that a majority of Iranians want to restore diplomatic relations with the United States, although they are skeptical of US intentions and most have no confidence in President Obama to do "the right think regarding world affairs." Simply put, there may have been some foul play in the 2009 elections, but regardless, the Iranian administration enjoys widespread support. 

With Egypt, it is a little different. The most recent polling indicates that a majority wanted Mubarak out. When asked who they wanted as the next president, only 16% of the Egyptians polled mentioned Hosni Mubarak's name. The leading candidate appears to be Amr Moussa, who recently resigned his post as head of the Arab League and has mentioned that he is considering running for the vacant position. Moussa got 26% support in the recent poll. 

Furthermore, there is little doubt that Mubarak has used rigged elections for some time to maintain his 29-year rule over the people. While the Council of Guardians in Iran is known for its control over the electoral system, President Ahmadinejad evidently had majority support in 2009 and he has not sought to change the Iranian constitution in a way that would leave him permanently in power. Critics like Palin, who blast the Iranian President, are missing the real obstacle to democracy: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the Council of Guardians.

Secondly, President Obama has, in the eyes of the Egyptian protesters, exerted far too little "constructed pressure" on Mubarak. The administration initially played it cautious, not wanting to destroy relations with Mubarak, in case the Egyptian people didn't manage to bring him down. When it became clear that Mubarak's days were numbered, Obama became more assertive. He cautioned against too quick of a transition, since Egypt virtually has no experience in democracy and does not have the institutions set up to have rapid elections. Had Obama played a more assertive role with Ahmadinejad, he would have accomplished nothing more than to destroy any opportunity (if there is one left) of dealing with the regime's nuclear quest. 

The Middle East, of course, is more complicated than these few words can relay. It is too soon to see how Egypt will emerge from the chaos. But it appears from the polling that the Muslim Brotherhood gets very little support (virtually none in a presidential contest), only 22% oppose a peace treaty with Israel, only 18% approve of Hamas or Iran, and only 5% say the uprising occurred because Egypt was too pro-Israel. The drive behind the revolution seems to be a desire for better economic conditions and political freedom. This is something that conservatives should support. 

Cross posted at The Cross Culturalist

11 comments:

Right Wingnut said...

Palin's tweet was on Friday, the Obama adminstration said this on Saturday...

The White House said Saturday that, off the heels of 18 days of Egyptian protests that ousted President Hosni Mubarak, Iran should allow its people to demonstrate.

Tehran had praised Egyptians for rising up against Mubarak’s secular government, calling it an Islamic awakening. Yet some trace the roots of the grass-roots, social-media-driven revolt in Egypt to the Green Revolution protests against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s last election and demanding democracy.

Opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroub, both candidates in that election, wanted to stage a rally Monday in support of uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. But the regime quickly put a damper on the permit request, calling the rallies “riots by seditionists.”

“By announcing that they will not allow opposition protests, the Iranian government has declared illegal for Iranians what it claimed was noble for Egyptians,” National Security Adviser Tom Donilon said in a statement released by the White House on Saturday.

“We call on the government of Iran to allow the Iranian people the universal right to peacefully assemble, demonstrate and communicate that’s being exercised in Cairo,” he said.


Apparently, they are following Palin's advice. I'm shocked that in your attempt to discredit Palin, that you would resort to defending Ahmadinejad.

Pablo said...

RW,

I have tried to maintain civil discourse with you, but it becoming increasingly difficult to do so.

1. You should try going back and reading what the Obama administration said during the 2009 elections. For example, Obama said that he was “appalled and outraged by the threats, beatings and imprisonments of the past few days.” He openly condemned the crackdown against protesters. Go to the following link to read more about what he said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/us/politics/24webobama.html


2. Palin said that didn't go far enough.

3. It makes no sense of you to say that he is now following Palin's advice. That is hysterical. He is saying the same things he said in 2009. You know, back when he wasn't offering "constructive pressure."

4. Your accusations that I am defending Ahmadinejad is the most hysterical. You see, RW, I try to deal with reality. And the reality is that Ahmadinejad won the 2009 elections and has widespread support. If you can point to an ounce of data that shows otherwise, then I will take back that statement. But until then, quit saying that I am defending Ahmadinejad just because I am willing to point out reality. We don't formulate policy based upon what we want the world to be like, but rather how it is.

Pablo said...

RW,

You should go here and see where I defended Palin. Well, I kind of defended Palin.

http://centralamericanpolitics.blogspot.com/2011/02/mccain-and-palin-still-lost.html

BOSMAN said...

"The Muslim Brotherhood is approved by just 15 percent of Egyptians"

Here is a thought. If most of that 15% are militant and willing to push their views on others. How many of the 85% are willing to stand up to them when it comes to physically keeping them out of power?

Maybe that 15% are a lot more motivated than the 85%?

Anonymous said...

"We don't formulate policy based upon what we want the world to be like, but rather how it is."

I would like to order 10 t shirts with that logo.

DanL

Pablo said...

DanL,

Is that Dan L from ROS? Glad to hear from you.

Anonymous said...

Pablo,

Yes it is. I have tried to back off of politics a lot. Not good for my blood pressure or productivity in things that matter.

DanL

Anonymous said...

I think Bosman makes an excellent point.

15 fighters can overtake 85 wooses/sheepies.

Those small numbers do not mean the can't or won't take control.
zeke

Ann said...

I just hope everything works out for the people in Egypt and that they don't come under the spell of some group with hopes of installing a Muslim ruled Government.

ConMan said...

When the Nazi's took over the German government, they were a VERY SMALL minority group as well.

Anonymous said...

Pablo, the problem with any Iranian polling data is the inherent fear that exists amongst the citizens. That type of innate coercion can certainly cloud the results. I'm sure if the colonists were polled 240 years ago, they would have sworn their allegiance to the King of England as well...

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