Friday, January 7, 2011

What if Giuliani and Daniels run?

Mitch Daniels would immediately become the choice of many in the GOP establishment if he throws his hat in the ring. I would expect him to be particularly formidable in the midwest.
Republican sources in Indiana say Daniels is about 75 percent of the way in for a presidential run. The last 25 percent of his decision will come during the next four months of the Indiana legislative session, when he will try to pass education reform and a budget.

It the meantime, however, Politico reported this morning that Daniels has accepted an in invitation to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference on February 11 - yet another sign he's thinking very seriously about a bid for the White House in 2012.
Rudy Giuliani would compete for moderates and independents. I would expect him to be competitive in New Hampshire and Florida. Aside from that, it would likely be a tough road. Many have speculated about a Palin/Giuliani ticket.
Confident that he'd have a chance to win, Rudy Giuliani is rounding up his top political advisers for a possible 2012 presidential run, sources tell Page Six.

Sources say the tough-talking former mayor "thinks the Republican race will be populated with far-right candidates like Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, and there's opportunity for a moderate candidate with a background in national security."

Giuliani has even scheduled a trip to New Hampshire for next month to meet with constituents in the state that failed him in January 2008, when he placed fourth in the Republican presidential primary.
I don't think either Daniels or Giuliani would be likely to secure the nomination. However, their presence in the race could certainly determine the outcome.

If either, or both enter the race, who does it hurt the most?


TexasConservative said...

The more the merrier. Polling has shown that when more names are added into the mix, the potential candidate hurt the most is....

Not Huckabee. He still has his core group of voters.

John said...

Guiliani - Romney's nightmare! He would have competition in NH, something he doesn't have right now.

I don't know, for each day that passes by Romney's chances seem to shrink. But that's just my impression.

Then on the other hand, this is just speculation. I think Guiliani is just trying to get into the spotlight one last time, I don't see him running.

Anonymous said...

First of all, I seriously doubt Mr. Guiliani will run and I even doubt that Daniels will run. However, if they do run, ironically it could help Mr. Romney. If Conservatives get scared enough of them (or one of them,) they could potentially hold there nose and at least quietly vote for Mr. Romney. Kind of like the reverse of how 1996 unfolded.


Anonymous said...

Romney and the establishment are TOAST.


C4Palin rules for the people!

Doug NYC GOP said...

In the 1950's Sci-Fi classic The Blob, a jelly-like substance from outer space bursts upon the populace. It devoures everything in it's path. Frantic, the towns people try to stop it with everything they have. Nothing works until they discover the substance can't stand cold. When it's exposed to cold, it retreated. When the citizens were finally able to freeze the mass, they dropped it in the Antarctic, never really dead, just frozen.

Rudy reminds me of The Blob. In 2008, he was the leader of the pack, devouring polls. Until he went to Iowa and was given the cold shoulder. So he retreated to New Hampshire. That climate, locally and politicaly also proved to frigid for him, so he shrunk back to the warmth of Florida. Despite the brilliant sunshine, Rudy was frozen out.

Now sitting dormant in the political frozen tundra, he's looking to return? Highly doubtful.

Doug NYC GOP said...

I can see Daniels getting some play with the RW Political Punditry, since they always seem to need something new to keep their interest.

Daniels will have to weigh whether his having the RW Media will carry him against Romney's advantage with organization and fundraising.

Anonymous said...

I don't see Rudy running for President. I could see him as Palin's running mate if she were to win the GOP nomination.


GetReal said...

I think Rudy running would hurt Romney and Palin about equally. He would take a chunk out of Romney's left, and would also take away whatever establishment vote Palin has - i.e. those who support her because they think she will make Rudy VP.

Daniels mostly hurts Romney, although he might also make things harder for Huckabee in the midwest.

Anonymous said...

I can't see Rudy Giuliani making a serious run. While he has tried to talk a good game on guns and appear more moderate on abortion and homosexuality, he spent his time as mayor of New York City taking very public positions that were very much against what Republicans believe. People can criticize statements and positions that Mitt Romney has taken on some of these issues, but Mitt Romney never made an effort to get in front of every camera and every parade to lead the attacks on the Second Amendment or the conservative positions on these other issues. He came across as arrogant during the campaign. Folks in NYC may like that style, but he reminded many of us why we'd never want to live in New York City. He'd be foolish to run again.

Mitch Daniels has received a great deal of criticism over suggesting a truce on social issues while we get people back to work, but many small government conservatives like the idea of a smaller, less intrusive government. That comment won't doom his candidacy. He doesn't seem to have as much charisma as many candidates do, but he'd be worth having in the primary. He could make a good VP pick for any number of nominees.

Anonymous said...

"although he might also make things harder for Huckabee in the midwest." Apart from winning his home state of Indiana, I think that only become true is he joins the 1st tier. I doubt he would hurt Mr. Huckabee as a 2nd tier candidate.

Anonymous said...

Arrrg, that was me.


BOSMAN said...

Giuliani is running. He won't get any where, but he will.

I wrote my very first blog on this, "2012: The Year Of The OLD GUYS", where I argued that the race in 2012 will come down to Romney, Giuliani, and Gingrich.

I'll have to resurrect this if he receives more buzz.

Revolution 2010 said...

I really would be surprised if he ran.

He certainly doesn't need to worry about name recognition.

Anonymous said...

"I argued that the race in 2012 will come down to Romney, Giuliani, and Gingrich." Talk about a nightmare scenario, I'd likely vote for Mr. Romney, but I'd refuse the label of an honorary Romneyite.


Right Wingnut said...

Talk about a nightmare scenario, I'd likely vote for Mr. Romney - OJ

That's why Bosman envisions that scenario. it fits his narrative.

I wouldn't sit through a three hour caucus (that's actually how long it took last time) to support any of those three in 2012.

phil said...

So Bosman thinks in the end it's going to come down to experience in the public eye, age, name recognition, as opposed to more of youth and inexperience.