Friday, January 28, 2011

Summarizing the state polling

Before I post my summary; I want to point out something. Today I found 3 states that have been polled by both Public Policy Polling (PPP) and Strategic National (SN). Since there has been numerous comments on various sites; I felt it necessary to research whether or not PPP is as bad as some claim. I wish I had more states to compare; but until very recently I had been deleting older polls as the newer ones came in. So, here is what I found to use to compare the two firms.

Iowa: Public Policy Polling 1/11/11 and Strategic National 1/25/11:

PPP: Huckabee 30% compared to SN 27.56% (2.44 point difference)
PPP: Romney 18% compared to SN: 18.54% (0.54 point difference)

Michigan: PPP 12/10/10 and Strategic National 1/28/11:

PPP: Huckabee 22% compared to SN: 18.8% (difference of 3.2 points)
PPP: Romney 22% compared to SN: 24.4% (difference of 2.4 points)

New Hampshire: PPP 1/9/10 and Strategic National 1/25/11:

PPP: Huckabee 13% compared to 13.83% (difference of 0.83 points)
PPP: Romney 40% compared to SN: 33.51% (difference of 6.41 points)

My analysis: 1. It sure doesn't look like PPP was trying to make things look all that great for Mike in New Hampshire. 2. The only difference in placements was that PPP had Romney and Huckabee tied in Michigan - which even surprised me - and PPP had Palin and Newt tied for third in New Hampshire. Are those differences really worth throwing out all of their polls? IMO - No, we'll use what we get.

Now for my state polling summary...I moved Palin down to third - because Romney has 2 wins and 1 tie advantage over her in first place wins. As I've stated before; I'll count each state only once, will try to use the latest poll for each state, and will try to keep it as accurate as possible even if/when my guy looks bad. Here it goes:

Huckabee has won:
1st place in 11 states plus tied for 1st in one (IL, AK, KY, VA, MO, IA, PA, FL, TX, NC, WV, tied in NJ)
2nd place in 6 states (CT, MT, OH, WI, NH, MI)
3rd place in 3 states plus tied in one (ME, WA, MN tied in CA)
4th place in 3 states (CO, NV, MA)

Romney has won:
1st place in 7 states plus tied for 1st in one (CA, CO, CT, MA, NV, NH, MI tied in NJ)
2nd place in 4 states plus tied for 2nd in one (ME, WA, FL, IA tied in AK)
3rd place in 0 states
4th place in 11 states plus tied for 4th in one (IL, KY, VA, MT, MO, MN, OH, WI, PA, NC, WV, tied in TX)

Palin has won:
1st place in 5 states (ME, WA, MT, OH, WI)
2nd place in 8 states plus tied for 2nd in two (CA, KY, MO, MA, MN, NV, PA, WV, tied in CO, TX)
3rd place in 6 states (IL, VA, IA, NH, MI, NC,)
4th place in 4 states (CT, AK, FL, NJ)

Gingrich has won:
1st place in 0 states
2nd place in 3 states and tied for 2nd in three (IL, VA, NC, tied for 2nd in CO, AK)
3rd place in 12 states plus tied for 3rd in one (CT, KY, MT, MO, MA, OH, WI, FL, NV, PA, TX, NJ, WV, tied for 3rd in CA)
4th place in 5 states (ME, WA, MI, FL, NH)
5th place in 1 state (MN)

I'd appreciate any corrections if I made any mistakes and constructive criticism.


Anonymous said...

Why are you giving a 3st place in FL to Huckabee. When Mitt was in first place there for the 2 previous polls.

I thought you were AVERAGING?

Anonymous said...


Why are you giving a 1st place in FL to Huckabee. When Mitt was in first place there for the 2 previous polls.

I thought you were AVERAGING?

Granny T said...

I've said numerous times that I will be using the latest polling results. I did ask if I should use averaging if there is more than one poll that was done during the same time frame. (Meaning like the ones that were released for Iowa earlier this month or like the two released today for Michigan - until I saw that one was done at the end of last year/first couple days of this year) I don't have the computer knowledge to base the averaging over several different polls and/or several different firms. If you have the capability to do that - feel free to post the information for us.

PPP does a pretty good job of averaging for the national GOP race. The last time I checked, Romney had a 0.1 point advantage over Huckabee.

Granny T said...

Added information - for what it's worth:

Romney did poll in 2nd place 2 points behind Huckabee in FL - within the MOE.

Some of the other states have been extremely close, too. Gingrich was 1 point behind Huckabee in IL, Romney was 1 point behind Huckabee in Alaska, Romney was 1 point behind Palin in Washington, Gingrich was 1 point behind Huckabee in Virginia, Huckabee was 1 point behind Palin in Montana, Palin was 2 points behind Huckabee in Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin, Palin is 3 points behind Huckabee in Pennsylvania and 4 points behind him in Texas. Those are just the extremely close races for 1st place - plus the ones that are already showed as tied in my summary above.

kelly said...

Will you be doing a similar poll of who does the best against Obama in all the states?

Isn't that the most important poll?

Granny T said...

I really don't know how to begin that. I've been keeping track of the state GOP races since the midterms. Could someone else willing to do that?

Granny T said...

Could someone else be willing to do that?

Rocky the flying squirrel said...


Granny wont do that one because Huckafat will be way behind.

I believe either PPP or Rasmussen have already done this and Romney ran away with it.

Ann said...

How does this translate into delegate count?

Granny T said...

I didn't see a need to do anything when Mark was doing the placement charts. He quit doing them when Romney started polling worse. I don't have the computer knowledge to do the charts like Mark did and the earlier results from the polling since the midterms looked like they were going in Palin's favor. I mentioned it to one of the Palin supporters oven on ROS; but they didn't pick up the ball either. So, I started gathering some information and asked my computer tech son to pay a visit to help me get started. I am very slow at that type of thing and have a 3 year old grandson to watch at least five days a week. I'm no where near as healthy or as young as I used to be. So, if one of Romney's much more computer savvy supporters wants to keep us up to date on the that; that is fine with me. Until then, I'll be satisfied to keep my eyes on the national head to head polls against Obama and watching the state polls when they show up. So far, either Romney or Huckabee has polled the best against Obama in every poll I've seen - so don't expect any Palin supporters to do it for you either.

Granny T said...

I wouldn't have the slightest idea how to figure delegate count because we don't have a clue yet which states will be winner take all, which will be proportional, etc.

Anonymous said...

It doesnt matter. Romney 2012!

ConMan said...

I applaud your efforts Granny. But unless you are able to average in All the polls from all of the polling companies based on samplings, you don't get a clear picture of where the race stands today.

The closest thing there is to accomplishing this is the TPM Poll Tracker.

Anonymous said...


Dont stop, Granny T ..

Until the polling stops.

And using only the NEWEST NUMBERS is pure genius.


Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

OhioJOE said...

Very interesting results. I think you can argue the averaging both ways. Perhaps a weighted average of some sort is best. One cannot give a poll taken 7 months ago very seriously, but by the same token you cannot entire dismiss a poll taken 7 weeks ago just because more polling in that particular state. Also, we need some way to account for national polls, but unfortunately, they often provide regional results.

What would be best if state polls gave regional results within their states, but the MOE would be higher.

OhioJOE said...

"we don't have a clue yet which states will be winner take all" As things stand now, only about 13 states are having their primary (or caucus) beyond March 31st. And of those states only a few of them have traditionally have had a WTA system. The trick is: what will be done with delegates in a state in excess of the 3 per CD, plus the 3 WTA delegates per state.

illinoisguy said...

It's too bad that the only firm polling enough for us to do things like this is a Democratic poll. The last Florida poll seems to be an outlier regarding Mitt and Huckabee, so to say Huck is leading is misleading!

Anonymous said...

Romney has been dropping consistently while the Huckster has been rising consistently in Florida.

Darn it!

BOSMAN said...


"Romney has been dropping consistently while the Huckster has been rising consistently in Florida."

Only in your dreams!

Granny T said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Granny T said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Granny T said...

As I said on Race - with a few minor corrections since I had used a mobile devise and made a few mistakes:

A short time ago polling revealed that Palin has consistently done the worst against Obama. The more recent polling show me [electability matters [to voters]. Huckabee seems to be profiting slightly more than Romney from Palin’s less faithful supporters jumping off what they could see as a ship not safe enough to [weather the storm and] finish the journey.

None of the frontrunners are ready to go to the front line without weighing the risk and getting ready for battle. We see the signs of Romney’s and a few others like T-Paw gathering the troops. But, Huckabee and Sarah both have very strong grassroots troops that are working behind the scenes under the media’s radar.

Polls go up and down very often based on current conditions. We supporters have to be prepared for the rollercoaster ride or we’re going to get upset stomachs from it.

IMO there is no clear frontrunner. Currently Romney has a slight advantage over Huckabee vs Obama and Huckabee has a slight advantage in the very close races in the various states.

[Fasten your seatbelts,] hang onto your hats, and enjoy the ride.

Granny T said...

I agree with Bosman that Huckabee has not been "consistently" rising in Florida. Aron's polling summary refutes that. But, it also shows us that Romney's support has been slipping with the addition of new names. (Paul was added for the first time in the last poll.) The last poll also showed what I consider the "unelectable" label on Palin that COULD be the reason for the slip in her support and the rise in Huckabee's. I guess there is a chance that it is an outlier like IllinoisGuy suggested; but as a staunch Huckabee supporter - I'm hoping it could be due to the fact that he is getting better known there since moving to his new homestate. Or it could have something to do with how complimentary Jeb, Marco, and Mike have been of each other. Future polling might help us know if it is a trend or a fluke.

TexasConservative said...

Granny T

I compliment you on presenting the facts in a non-adversarial way.

We all need to remember that our goal in 2012 is to come together and defeat Obama.

phil said...

It looks like Romney and Huckabee are pretty close in polls with the edge to Romney on:

Organization, fund raising, and in head-to-head match-ups with Obama.

Anonymous said...

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary
PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary

•Mike Huckabee 23% {15%} [15%] (21%)
•Mitt Romney 21% {28%} [31%] (52%)

•Newt Gingrich 18% {15%} [23%]
•Sarah Palin 13% {22%} [23%] (18%)
•Ron Paul 8%
•Tim Pawlenty 4% {4%}
•Mitch Daniels 2% {1%}
•John Thune 1% {1%}
•Someone else/Undecided 10% {12%}

Anonymous said...


Huck 31 whopping points behind Romney in that first poll at 52 to 21...

But then it closes EACH TIME:

Huck down 16 points ... to Huck down only 13 points ... to TODAY'S HUCK UP BY 2!


Anonymous said...

Huck was at three polls back: eight points behind Newt in Florida...

Then at two polls ago: TIED with Newt

Now in the newest poll of Florida, Huck has gone UP BY FIVE over Newt.

Anonymous said...

Lastly, Huck versus Sarah in FL:

3 polls ago: Huck down 8

2 polls ago: Huck down 7

Most recent: Huck up 10!!!!!!!

BOSMAN said...


Huck 31 whopping points behind Romney in that first poll at 52 to 21...

But then it closes EACH TIME:

Huck down 16 points ... to Huck down only 13 points ... to TODAY'S HUCK UP BY 2!



What is the average of the 4 polls?

Romney STILL UP, quite a bit.

Also, when we find that the last poll was an outlier, will we hear a cry from you THEN to start averaging them ALL in?

hamaca said...

Thanks, Granny T, for posting these.

I disagree with certain people in my own camp as well as with Sybil the Silly Spammer that the results of these polls are reason to celebrate and cheer. On the other hand, I also disagree with those who dismiss them as being irrelevant this far out.

I believe their usefulness is in looking at trends over time and what those mean. They are a great starting point for discussion on what may happen going forward and why.

Anonymous said...

The polls and trends are telling.

If certain camps want to bury their heads, it's their right..

Granny T said...


Thank you. I agree that they are useful for looking at trends.

IMO the addition of other candidates is the main reason there is a 31 point difference between Mitt's high and low. (Florida poll) There is only a 10 point difference between Sarah's high and low and only an 8 point difference in Mike's. But, you are correct that if trends haven't changed as much as the most recent FL poll says, Mitt's averages are better than Mike's even if we used Mitt's two worst showings against Mike's two best.

Whether this poll was an outlier or changing trend remains to be seen.