Friday, January 28, 2011

Mike Huckabee Best Bet to beat Obama in West Virginia

Poll Watch: PPP (D) West Virginia 2012 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) West Virginia 2012 Presidential Survey

* Mike Huckabee 54%
* Barack Obama 36%

* Mitt Romney 50%
* Barack Obama 37%

* Newt Gingrich 49%
* Barack Obama 39%

* Sarah Palin 46%
* Barack Obama 42%

Among Independents

* Mike Huckabee 61%
* Barack Obama 20%

* Mitt Romney 61%
* Barack Obama 20%

* Newt Gingrich 56%
* Barack Obama 25%

* Sarah Palin 53%
* Barack Obama 30%

Among Republicans

* Mike Huckabee 86%
* Barack Obama 7%

* Mitt Romney 81%
* Barack Obama 8%

* Newt Gingrich 81%
* Barack Obama 10%

* Sarah Palin 75%
* Barack Obama 12%


Favorability

* Mike Huckabee 48% / 27% {+21%}
* Mitt Romney 34% / 37% {-3%}
* Sarah Palin 41% / 47% {-6%}
* Newt Gingrich 33% / 43% {-10%}


Survey of 1,105 West Virginia voters was conducted January 20-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 57% Democrat; 32% Republican; 10% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 45% Conservative; 40% Moderate; 15% Liberal.

Data compiled by The Argo Journal

Interesting Nuggets from PPP Blogspot:


West Virginia's one of the most conservative states in the country. But even there voters don't like any of the leading Republican candidates for President, with the exception of Mike Huckabee.


Huckabee's favorability in the state is a 48/27 spread. But the rest of the pack all have negative favorability ratings. Mitt Romney's at 34/37, Sarah Palin's at 41/47, and Newt Gingrich is at 33/43.


Only Huckabee can take advantage of the President's unpopularity in the state and build on the Republican margin of victory from 2008, leading Obama by 18 points at 54-36.

None of the Republican front runners, with the possible exception of Huckabee, can really build on the party's performance from 2008.

Cross Posted at: I Like Mike Huckabee 2012

17 comments:

Right Wingnut said...

TC, I know you mean well, but can you point to any evidence that indicates that Huck is planning a run? The evidence to the contrary is overwhelming. Nobody outside of his most ardent supporters are taking his candidacy seriously anymore. PPP should drop Huck from their polls.

Anonymous said...

I think Romney can do a better job, but I dont think Huckabee will run anyway. Besides,It would be like last time, he wins Iowa, then gets no momentum from it, loses until he gets to a couple southern states, then does anything like ganging up on Romney to keep him from winning.

TexasConservative said...

RWN, I do think that Huckabee is still looking at all the criteria.

1. Is Obama beatable?

If Obama looks to be unbeatable, then why would he give up his show? Huckabee has an opportunity to weigh in on every issue of the day and influence the viewers towards a more conservative approach to governing. If Obama cannot be beat, then Huckabee can still present America with a conservative alternative approach. Millions tune into his show each week to hear what he has to say.

2. What is the economic forecast? Economists just announced that unemployment will remain high and be roughly 8.2% come election day. That and other economic factors must be weighed.

If the economy looks like it will have a significant positive turnover, then Obama wins another 4 years. The focus will be on turning the senate red. Huckabee will then use his influence to help conservatives win important senate seats.

3. Money. Huckabee has stated that he will not enter the race if his pool is not filled. Now you can say that his PAC has not shown the fruits of his labor. Fair enough. But I am sure that Huckabee has talked with and met with influential friends in various states and asked to see what level of monetary support he could receive in 2012. Those friends are trusted confidants and are not talking with the media.

So is Huckabee a yes or a no? He is a maybe.

As Megyn Kelly asked Huckabee in her interview, Do you want to be the Republican sacrificial lamb? My guess is his answer would be no. Let someone else take the fall.

But, if Obama is beatable, if the economy looks like it is not going to turn around, and if Huckabee is receiving positive feedback and privately talked about influential funding, then Huckabee will be a YES.

Stayed tuned.

TexasConservative said...

And one more thing, PPP should not drop Huckabee from their polls unless Huckabee states publicly that he is not running.

To drop him now is foolish and only feeds into the meme that the other candidates want repeated-"Huckabee is not running, so look at me instead."

Right Wingnut said...

TC,

Fair enough, but many of the conclusions being draw by me and others are based on statements Huck has made himself. If I were a Huckabee supporter, I wouldn't want him making comments like "I woun't jump in to a pool with zero water in it," or "have fun at the early debates, I won't be there." In addition, that cruise in June is a little puzzling, because it limits his flexibility. And I know I've brought this up before, and don't know his financial situation, but it does seem odd that he would purchase a $3 million house if he was planning a run.

There's a commenter at C4P named Firelight that has a contact in Washington. Apparently, the contact works in candidate recruitment and finance. The contact was supposedly at the SOTU address. The word on the street in Washington is that Huck is not running. Now, I don't know Firelight and the info isn't verifiable, but Firelight is a well respected, long time commenter on C4P.

Many other revelations were also discussed. Some of it had to do with Bachmann. It sounds like Bachmann was initially clearing a path for Palin, but many in DC are suspecting that the attention she's getting may be going to her head. No one is saying she's running, but that she could be convinced to jump in if she sees a path to victory.

Right Wingnut said...

Here is what Firelight had to say. FWIW

OK, here is the deal with Bachmann. I have a friend whose husband works in DC. He attended the SOTU last night. He works with in the area of money and potential candidates. He knows everyone that is REALLY considering running.

I knew my friend’s husband worked in the DC political scene but didn’t realize how close. I got to speak with her about it a few days ago and found out a handful on a lot of topics we discuss here. I hope I don’t get him in trouble but I won’t mention exactly where he works etc… Both of them are Sarah fans personally.

First, Huckabee. He has solidly said he isn’t running and Mrs. H has said a definite no. His former backers keep trying to get him back in the race. The media is trying to get him in the race because they think he will dilute the evangelical vote. The Bushies are now being nice to him (which is a first). Huck has told his advisors that ONLY if no one is capturing his base and building momentum will he consider it. Mrs. H made him promise to wait until late summer/early fall hoping it is too late. She has NO interest in him running again. Huck himself, likes being sought after and therefore plays tease but he does not want to run. He also does not want to be anyone’s stalking horse. There is a 1% chance of him running.

Bachmann, she is suppose to be a place holder for Sarah. She was trying to raise her National appeal to either run for Speaker or Senate. From what B (that is what I will refer to my friend’s hubby as) says, MB was supposed to tour Iowa and a few other locations under the guise of the Tea Party. During Christmas, the powers that be decided if Huck isn’t running they might be able to recruit MB to run. These powers do NOT have our best interest at heart. They want to dilute the TP/Evangelical/Cons vote. B does not know if it is Romney/Pawlenty/Bush behind this move. However, MB’s advisors were asked to meet with some power donors regarding her running. Against MB directions, they did. They then started floating the idea publicly about her running. During this time MB was headed to Iowa. She got such a great reception from the public that she began to think maybe there is something to this idea. Since then, she has been seriously considering it. She does believe she knows how to beat Sarah. She has not decided as of yet what she is going to do.

Folks, someone powerful is playing games. In order for Sarah to win the nomination the Tea Party, Evangelicals and Conservatives will have to unite. The idea is to dilute the moderates to pull votes from Romney and Tpaw but to only run a strong Conservative to unite our side. Now it seems that people are being recruited to dilute Sarah’s voters.

I got word that there is a strategy out right now to continue to float MB name, get her more National attention and online presence. I noticed that there are some new freepers using the “Sarah has too much baggage, Sarah quit, Sarah isn’t really interested in running” memes going around especially after last night.

Maybe the original plan was for MB to pave the way for Sarah. Maybe that is what Sarah still thinks is happening BUT someone is trying to appeal to MB ego. Imagine if you were getting National attention for a very good response, you got a standing O for an appearance in Iowa and tons of local people telling you to run. It will affect your thinking. She has not publicly defended Sarah against the Tucson charges, even now when asked and everything seems to have blown over.

I am not saying she is definitely running. B says there is concern now. He and others are trying to see who is behind this move. It has so far been pretty hush. He does not believe that the recruiting of MB is for genuine reasons. He said to watch what happens over the next month. If she starts to move back to the Palin camp and publicly speaks out for Palin then we know she isn’t running BUT if she continues to remain silent and her advisors continue to float certain memes we know the influence is working.
(CONTINUED)

Right Wingnut said...

.....Someone is trying to stir the pot and B said it is most likely the Bush camp. They hate Sarah. B did say that if Sarah gets the nomination America might be surprised as just who does support her and insinuated that her support crosses the aisle.

This is why I refuse to stroke MB ego. I do not trust her right now. I think her heart was in the right place up to about 3 months ago but I think it is questionable now. I am disappointed that she would let a little influence and attention go to her head.

I got lots of info on Rudy, Newt and others but I’ll leave it at this for now. Flame away if you want to but I am not just being a scrooge regarding MB.

Granny T said...

RW,
I know Palin supporters are hoping Huckabee doesn't run. But, if he weren't running; why would he have asked us loyal supporters what we are willing to do to help him if he decides? Why would he be wearing so many different purple ties (which has been an "inside joke" among his most faithful supporters for him to give us a sign)? Have you seen his picture front and center on HuckPAC? (purple tie plus looking up - reminding me of "From Hope to Higher Ground) PLUS everytime any pollster leaves him out Huckabee's team is very quick to let them know he has NOT ruled out a run. PLUS the Huck's Army members in his inner circle are fairly confident he is VERY seriously considering running. NO, he has not decided yes and he has not decided no. Like TC says, he is still weighing the outcome. He wants to make sure there is a reasonable chance to win the nomination and also a reasonable chance to win the Presidency. So far according to all polling we've seen - Huckabee and Romney are the two clear frontrunners for the nomination (Romney is ahead by 0.3 points according to national polling) and both of them still lose to Obama by 6 points for Romney and 6.3 points for Huckabee (also only a 0.3 difference) You can find this information at Real Clear Politics. RCP's averaging has been pretty close to the final outcome in recent elections.

So, unless Romney and Huckabee (or someone else) can knock Obama down a few points - I won't expect Huckabee to quit his job to be the sacrificial lamb. He is young enough to wait until 2016. IF he doesn't run; I'll be in the undecided category for awhile.

TexasConservative said...

Thanks for your information RW. I appreciate your scoop.

That gives me an idea for a piece to write up. I am home today with a sick kid, so I may not get to it right away. But let's continue the conversation after I put it together.

Thanks, TC

Granny T said...

Here is the RCP link for the national polling and averages of each of the candidates:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_primary-1452.html

I was wrong in my statement above. Huckabee is only 0.1 point behind Romney.
Romney 18.9% average
Huckabee 18.8% average
Palin 16.4% average
Gingrich 11.4% average

Right Wingnut said...

Granny T.,

Huck downplayed the polling data last week. "Doesn't necessarily translate into support."

The purple tie theory is interesting. Might be something to that.;)

Anonymous said...

TC, your title is misleading...Huck is the best bet? You make it seem like no one else competes. The poll results are that all of the major candidates can beat Obama by wide margins. Huck's margin in this poll is the largest granted but it doesn't mean that he alone comes out on top the way you lead your reader to believe with that title.

Lori*

Right Wingnut said...

I have one thing to add from our earlier conversation. You made the following comment...

3. Money. Huckabee has stated that he will not enter the race if his pool is not filled. Now you can say that his PAC has not shown the fruits of his labor. Fair enough. But I am sure that Huckabee has talked with and met with influential friends in various states and asked to see what level of monetary support he could receive in 2012. Those friends are trusted confidants and are not talking with the media. - TC

We agree that fundraising is a major obstacle. What is he currently doing to turn that around? The cruise in June doesn't help, nor do some of his comments. The man does not seem interested in getting in. That's fine. He's actually good at what he does right now, and he seems very happy.

ConMan said...

It's nice to see a state with Obama far behind, no matter who the Republican nominee is.

Anonymous said...

RW,

Why would Huckabee choose 6 different cities in IA and SC, some in NC for his book tour?

He is running...he wants to set his own time table, not what the MSM wants it to be. If I was a betting person (which I'm not) I would definitely bet on Huckabee running.

We don't know what is going on behind the scenes regarding his fundraising or promises of donations after he announces. By him staying on Fox News on the weekend, he has over a million people hear his message each week and he gets paid for that. If he jumps in to the race, he will have to pay for that same promotion. He isn't stupid...he wants to make as much money as possible, and get his message out to as many people as possible between now and next summer. If you haven't noticed, that strategy is working. He leads the top four potential candidates with winning the most states in the polls. Obviously, these polls are not indications of how he would eventually do, but indications of how many people support him to be President. That's important to know!

Anonymous said...

The Republican Establishment is who is spreading the lies that Mike Huckabee isn't running to maybe influence him not to run. There is much more information from Mike Huckabee indicating he is running than not.

Gary Walter said...

Huck will run.. and win! No one is better positioned to defeat BHO!