Thursday, December 16, 2010

PPP: Palin leads in Ohio and Wisconsin (12-16-2010)


I'm getting somewhat bored with these PPP polls, but it's hard to ignore the trends that are continuing to develop. It appears as though some of the second tier candidates are slowing gaining ground at the expense of Mitt Romney, while Sarah Palin has gained a few points at the expense of Mike Huckabee. In addition, the fascination of a possible Newt Gingrich candidacy seems to have lost it's luster.

Wisconsin
:

Ohio
:

I wonder what these polls would look like if Huckabee wasn't included?

PPP's full report can be read HERE

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

"I wonder what these polls would look like if Huckabee wasn't included?"

----------------

I wonder what these polls would look like without Gingrich.

Right Wingnut said...

anon, Ok. Let's throw out Huckabee and Gingrich and see how it shakes out. I don't think either will run anyway.

hamaca said...

RWN,

It'd be fascinating to see a poll/study that takes it a step further even, asking what-if questions based on certain prospective candidates not running.

For example, "who would you vote from the following list?" Then the same list minus, say, Gingrich. Then minus the 2nd tier candidates. Then minus Huck and so on to see who gains which support.

Of course, those being surveyed would have to have the patience to get through it!

Right Wingnut said...

Hamaca,

PPP did something similar last month. They asked respondents for their second choices.

http://www.rightspeak.net/2010/11/ppp-palin-leads-among-gop-likely-gop.html

illinoisguy said...

The recent pattern continues. Romney finishes 3rd or 4th in the primary, but does the best in the match up against Obama. These are the exact same people, exact same poll, time frame, everything. It's not the easiest thing to get our hands around. One thing we know for sure is that if Sarah continue to run poorly against Obama, she will decide not to run, or she will drop out after two or three primaries/caucuses. The question then remains: where do her supporters go?

Anonymous said...

"The question then remains: where do her supporters go?" Good question, but where to Romneyites go if their camp leader cannot finish in the top two?

Great is great news that both WI and my state of OH are Palin States. Yahoo!


OHIO JOE

hamaca said...

"Good question, but where to Romneyites go if their camp leader cannot finish in the top two?"

Good question as well. I guess it depends in part on who the remaining two actually are as well as their principle reason(s) for supporting him in the first place, e.g. background, economic/financial capabilities, stance on issues, ability to beat Obama, or something else.

Btw, I don't know that Sarah would necessarily duck out just because she's not polling as well against Obama at any given point in time--she's optimistic and has certainly seen other come-from-behind cases.

illinoisguy said...

She has pretty much said that she wouldn't be running without good prospects of winning. She has a lot of money on the line to at least consider.

Anonymous said...

In any event, it is good you are back Hamaca. I could trouble you with sending that warm weather up to Ohio and surrounding states. Haha, we are not yet feeling the Global warming.


OHIO JOE

Anonymous said...

"She has pretty much said that she wouldn't be running without good prospects of winning. She has a lot of money on the line to at least consider." Yeah, that is partly true, but at this stage of the game, nobody is certain to win. She is one of three people who currently have a prospect of winning. I realize some people do not want to run unless they are guarenteed to win. Many will run as long as the is a chance of winning and as of now, she certainly has a chance. She may be still slightly behend both Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Romney, but likely much less than 100 delegates separate the three right now.

In short, I do not disagree she should run to lose, but as thing stand now, she would run to win in deed!


OHIO JOE

Right Wingnut said...

Reagan trailed Carter by 25 points a mere 8 months prior to the election. Fortuanately, he didn't listen to the naysayers.

Most polls show Palin down 8-12 points among registered voters with two years to go. I expect that number to shrink once she hits the campaign trail. She wasn't suppose to win the Governorship either.

hamaca said...

OJ--I'll see what I can do! We had three nights of freezes followed by 72 degrees yesterday and now it's getting cold again. Hard to stay healthy with that sort of weather flip-flopping.

Regarding Ms. Palin, I think that if she does jump in the race, we'll see a less conventional campaign than is historically typical, using tactics which play to her strengths. It could be very interesting to observe with her calling the campaign shots this time around.

Anonymous said...

If you mean that she'll avoid all debates possible, then I agree. She'll have the bar so low that a jr. high debater can step over it, and necessarily so.

Anonymous said...

How does she do head-to-head against Obama in those states vs Romney?

zeke

Right Wingnut said...

zeke,

We'll have to wait for Nov 2012 to find out. See my comment re: Reagan three comments up.