Tuesday, November 30, 2010

PPP: Palin Leads Among Likely GOP Primary Voters (11-30-2010)

Sarah Palin leads the pack in PPP's latest poll of likely GOP primary voters.


When poll respondents were asked for their second choice, Palin and Huckabee were the most common responses. Romney and Gingrich tied for fourth. This will not bode well for Romney as the field starts to whittle down to 2 or 3 candidates.


PPP also included data to show who voters would support if their candidate of choice was not in the race. Just as I suspected, Palin and Huckabee largely draw from the same pool of voters. 34% of Huckabee supporters would move to Palin, followed by Gingrich at only 19%. See the chart below for more interesting revelations.


Read PPP's report and view additional polling data HERE

16 comments:

Doug NYC GOP said...

Congratulations to Gov. Palin on a good showing in this poll.

One of the "intresting revelations" of this poll is how the supporters of the candidates breakout into two very distinct groups:

1) Smart/Rational/Able to Answer the Question Correctly: Romney, Daniels, Thune and Pawlenty

2) Less Than Smart?Emotional?Unable to Comprehend what is asked: Palin, Huck, Gingrich and Paul Supporters.

Why do I say trhis? Look at group #1 Second Choices - They ALL named someone else, NOT their first choice.

At the back of the classroom, we had 18% Palin, 14% Huck, 13% Paul and 7% Gingrich voters, ALL name their first choice as their second choice.

DUH!

Doug NYC GOP said...

Palin supporters should also take special note of who is the second choice of Romney voters. They may want to improve their "tone" when referring to the former MA Governor, if they hope to attract his supporters in the highly unlikely event he's not the nominee.

Illinoisguy said...

I very much dislike this data...hate it, in fact.

Doug NYC GOP said...

IG -- There are going to be bad polls and good polls and one's like this which are "MEH". There will be high points and low points. There will pitch perfect moments and times of mistakes.

And guess what? All the candidates will face them. One thing to remember from 2008, is the Romney is a tireless campaigner, very energetic and wants to win. Besides, this sooo early. For being out of the public eye, he is very competitive.

Right Wingnut said...

Palin supporters should also take special note of who is the second choice of Romney voters. They may want to improve their "tone" when referring to the former MA Governor, if they hope to attract his supporters in the highly unlikely event he's not the nominee.--Doug

Duly noted. However, we all know it's highly unlikely that he doesn't run.

The data shows that Palin supporters should refrain from Huck bashing for a while--Especially since he's hinting at not running.

Right Wingnut said...

At the back of the classroom, we had 18% Palin, 14% Huck, 13% Paul and 7% Gingrich voters, ALL name their first choice as their second choice.--Doug

That's because they don't have a second choice among this list. Some Palin, Huck, and Paul voters (not sure about Gingrich voters) are very committed to their prospective candidates. Go over to C4P and ask who on this list they would support without Palin in the field. After you do that, ask IG and Tracey who their second choice would be. Don't be surprised if their answer is Romney.

Right Wingnut said...

Personally, I don't get too worked up over any of these polls. Sure, they're nice to look at when your candidate of choice fares well. We all know that a lot can change in 1-2 years.

As for this poll, I'm most encouraged to see that Palin appeals to voters from across the board--Romney supporters, Huckabee supporters, and Paul supporters.

Illinoisguy said...

No, RWN, even I know that 2nd place can't be the same as 1st place. That's why they provided a category of someone else/undecided.

Doug NYC GOP said...

Not having a second choice means you are either too fanatical or emotional to fathom not having your candidate run. At least be Undecided, as I would be at this pint, should my number one not be available.

The take away from the PPP commentary was that Huck and Gingrich voters would be very happy to support any one else. The Romney and Palin camps are more likely to vote for Dem, 3rd Party or sit it out.

Right Wingnut said...

Some analysis by C4P's resident poll expert, Techno:

COMMENTS AND CONCLUSIONS:

1) The poll in November included Daniels, Pawlenty and Thune; neither the Sept or Aug polls did.

2) With three more candidates added to the mix Palin increases her overall total 4 points from Sept to Nov while both Huck and Mitt both drop.

3) Although Mitt still leads Moderates (25%) he has lost 8 points from September.

4) But in the most important ideological category of CONSERVATIVES Palin leads at 24% edging out Newt at 23%. But Mitt dropped 3 points from 18 to 15 %.

5) Among women while Palin has gained 6 points since Sept (13 to 19 points), Romney has dropped 5 points (25 to 20%) and remember 3 more candidates were added to the mix.

6) Romney fell 8 points among the 46-64 category from 26 to 18% since August and 2 points in the 65+ category (21% to 19%)

7) But key losses were sustained by Huckabee as you can see across the board:

Overall -5
Conserv -7
Women -6
Men -7
30-45 -17
46-64 -7

8) As for Gingrich finishing 2nd in a national poll is a surprise and really against the grain. For the last 2 months his numbers have been slipping. But significantly Newt fell 5 points in both the 46-64 category and the 65+ category

9) As for Palin she made key increases across the board:

Overall +4
Moderates +6
Conserv +3
Women +6
Men +3
65+ +2

And for the first time in any national poll Palin lead all her opponents in both the 46-64 and 65+ age categories. This is highly significant as polls for the past year to 18 months have always up to now shown Palin trailing with the older folks and doing much better with the younger folks.

And again this cannot be emphasized enough. Palin made these gains despite 3 new candidates being added to the mix.

(continued)

Obviously even after the vicious attacks on Palin by the MSM and the GOP establishment after the election, she has come out smelling like a rose in this poll conducted between Nov 19-21 . And this also confirms the Quinnpiac poll that also shows Palin in the lead.

PPP also did a poll on "second choices.

Here is how Palin did among the candidates and her ranking:

Category % rank leader %
overall 20% T1 Huck 20%
Conservatives 21% 2nd Huck 22%
Women 19% 2nd Huck 25%
Men 22% 1st --- ---
30-45 20% T1 Huck 20%
46-64 18% 1st --- ---
65+ 26% 1st --- ----

These numbers are truly remarkable and in black and white and in addition PPP tells us that just over 1/3 of Huck's support (34%) would go over to Palin.

And finally regarding conservative favorables Palin is 78% and even among Republican moderates it stands at 44 she stands at 44%, only 6 points behind Romney.

Imho, Palin is in great shape and has improved her position as a result of the work she did on the campaign trail before the midterms.

Right Wingnut said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Right Wingnut said...

The take away from the PPP commentary was that Huck and Gingrich voters would be very happy to support any one else. The Romney and Palin camps are more likely to vote for Dem, 3rd Party or sit it out. - Doug

I read that on Hot Air. I'm not buying that. I'm sure some would sit out, but not likely enough to swing an election. They came to this conclusion based on approval rankings of other candidates. Romney supporters have a 46/36 favorable rating of Palin. Ask the same respondents how they feel about Obama. Also, the fact that Palin is the second choice of Romney supporters further destroys Jensen's theory.

The Daily Kos pollster is simply trying to create a wedge.

Right Wingnut said...

ROS members apparently don't like this poll. These are usually posted there within an hour of publication. Hmmmmm...

I hear Christy was banned too...

Other than Matt, who now proclaims himself "undecided," and Kris (one of the site owners), I think the Palin backers have all been cleaned out.

Doug NYC GOP said...

RWN - Don't buy all the PPP analysis either. They seem very intent on creating and keeping a GOP wedge alive - especially in how they spun the Obama match ups. Could you imagine a sitting GOP President leading by 1 point being spun as how strong he stillis? Laughable.

Regarding ROS - Aron is the house poll poster and he seems to be away, which is why it hasn't been posted.

Matt likes Tpaw and Huck.

Anonymous said...

"Matt likes Tpaw and Huck." He is regering to the other Matt.

Haha, I am not surprised this great poll is not posted over there. I further guess that this poll is not reflective of the blogging world. I am a little surprised and disappointed that more Palinites did not choose Mr. Pawlenty as their second choice, but that may simply because, Mr. Huckabee has a better chance of going further between himself and Mr. Pawlenty.

OHIO JOE

Tracey said...

My first choice is Romney. I would consider a candidate other than Huck or Palin.

Huck is a RINO. He is a tax and spend social conservative.

Palin does not have a strong record as a fiscal conservative. She has a very short record. I am not swayed by her sound bites. There is no substance behind her rhetoric.

Newt has baggage but I would not label him UNSMART. Ron Paul struggles with his delivery and is extreme in some cases but I think he is smart.

The other candidates are unfamiliar to me and I would need to look at them more closely but I would be willing to do that.

I firmly believe that Mitt Romney could take on Obama. He would make it a tough fight. He could stand toe to toe on many issues. He would win on foreign policy as he went through the list of all that Obama has done wrong where foreign issues are concerned. GMR seems to have a real grasp foreign matters. Also, GMR is loaded with substance. He has spelled out what he would do with regards to entitlements and many other critical issues facing our country in his book "NO APOLOGIES".

I would be interested in learning