Friday, December 3, 2010

PPP: Palin Leads in Montana (12-3-2010)

I find these results surprising considering Romney won Montana in 2008 by a margin of 38-25 over Ron Paul. The implosion continues for Romney....
Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee are the top choices of GOP voters in the state to be the Presidential nominee in 2012, earning support levels of 23% and 22% respectively. Among the other front runners Newt Gingrich is at 16% and Mitt Romney 12%. Leading the second tier contenders is Ron Paul with 9% followed by Tim Pawlenty and John Thune at 3%, and Mitch Daniels at 2%. Although Thune's 3% is not particularly impressive it is the highest level of support PPP has found for him in any state so far.

In a departure from what we usually see in these polls, Huckabee actually has a slight lead with conservatives at 23-22 but Palin's small overall advantage comes because she beats him out 25-18 with moderates. In another interesting twist Huckabee has a 3 point advantage with women while Palin has a 6 point lead with men. That's becoming a bit of a trend in our polling, as the last national poll also found Huckabee first with women and Palin first with men. That's not the normal sort of gender gap you see but is reflective of the kind of folks each of them appeal to.

Full results HERE


Doug NYC GOP said...

LOL - You are dispkaying a good sense of humor lately. I am very glad Palin and Huck for that matter are the front runners right now. The will go down in the records of history along with other FRs Giuliani and Hilary Clinton.

Remind me again how pivotal the Montana primary is?

Right Wingnut said...

Doug, I thought twice about using that picture, but the folks on MRC seemed pretty excited about it the other night. I like the one of him washing dishes better.

BOSMAN said...

That photo was taken in California while Romney was on the campaign trail in 2008. He took time off to help remove a huge stump from a tree that had fallen on a home.

There is another photo floating around with him inhaling a sandwich made by the grateful owner.

Right Wingnut said...

It's becoming more apparent as time goes on that Romney needs BOTH Palin and Huckabee in the race to have any shot of winning the nomination.

Right Wingnut said...

...or neither Palin or Huckabee.

Anonymous said...


You are FUNNY!

So you;re saying, so goes Montana, so goes the election?

Republicans beat Obama in MT, but Palin & Gingrich barely

Obama trails 2008 vice presidential pick Sarah Palin by a 45-47 margin, and Gingrich by
44-46. But Romney leads 50-39, and Huckabee 51-41.

PPP surveyed 1,176 Montana voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for
the survey is +/- 2.9%.

This survey is ALL voters and the other survey is who the Republicans want as their nominee. So, in all fairness, the conclusion is that Republicans want either Palin or Huckabee as their nominee, but in the general election, Huckabee or Romney are the ones who would easily beat Obama. In other words, people should be concerned if she is our nominee.


Doug NYC GOP said...

As pointed out by Nate G @ MRC, Romney showed a boatloads of class and humility by not mentioning the back story about that photo on Leno.

kelly said...

I like Mitt's look with his hair a little ruffled. Maybe try with a little spike to it.