Thursday, November 11, 2010

PPP: Palin Gains Momentum in Latest Round of 2012 Polling

I'm sure most have seen these poll results from PPP by now, but it deserves a post.
The most important state to the nomination process on this list is Florida and there Romney's ahead with 28% to 22% for Palin and 15% for Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee. It should be noted that although Romney does have the lead, it's a much less lofty one than what he posted in a March PPP poll of the state when he had 44%. The only other candidates included in that poll were Palin and Huckabee and we're finding more and more as we do these polls that when new folks are added into the mix it tends to hurt Romney more than anyone else. His support is less solid than Palin's and Huckabee's so even though he looks like a very nominal front runner at this point, he's also the candidate most likely to see his support collapse as things heat up.

Tim Pawlenty leads the field in his home state of Minnesota but his performance is surprisingly weak. He gets 19% with Palin right on his heels at 18%, Huckabee at 14%, and Gingrich and Romney each getting 11%. These numbers are reflective of the overall trouble we found for Pawlenty at home in our final preelection poll of the state- his approval rating was under water and voters overwhelmingly said they didn't think he should run for President. Partially because of Pawlenty's declining popularity Democrats seem to have picked up the Governor's office there in an otherwise awful year for the party. Palin actually leads Pawlenty 20-18 with conservatives but the Governor leads overall thanks to a 27-10 advantage with moderates. It is no coincidence that Romney is in the basement in this state- we've found several places now that where Pawlenty is unusually strong the victim seems to be Romney because of a greater split in the vote among GOP centrists.

Palin holds small leads in the remaining states. Most noteworthy is her strength in Texas and West Virginia, which suggests a bid from her could really hurt Mike Huckabee in the South. In Texas she gets 22% to 20% for Huckabee and 15% for both Gingrich and Romney. In West Virginia she's at 25% to 22% for Huckabee and again 15% for both Gingrich and Romney. These margins are obviously very close but they nevertheless pose trouble for Huckabee and perhaps even more so Gingrich if she ends up making a bad because strength in the South would be vital to either of their prospects.

Romney may not have a complete strangle hold on New England- Palin gets 23% in Maine to 18% for Romney, 16% for Huckabee, and 14% for Gingrich. Those numbers should give folks who think there's no chance Maine Republicans would nominate someone far right against Olympia Snowe in 2012 second thoughts. And finally Palin gets 18% in Wisconsin to 15% for Huckabee, 14% for Gingrich, and 12% for Romney. Pawlenty has his best non-Minnesota performance so far at 8%, not surprising given that it's right next door. And Pawlenty's unusually strong Wisconsin number helps to explain Romney's unusually weak Wisconsin number.


Palin 23%
Romney 18%
Huckabee 16%
Newt 14%
Pawlenty 3%


Pawlenty 19%
Palin 18%
Huckabee 14%
Newt 11%
Romney 11%


Palin 18%
Huckabee 15%
Newt 14%
Romney 12%
Pawlenty 8%


Palin 22%
Huckabee 20%
Newt 15%
Romney 15%
Pawlenty 3%

West Virginia:

Palin 25%
Huckabee 22%
Newt 15%
Romney 15%
Pawlenty 2%


Romney 28%
Palin 22%
Huckabee 15%
Newt 15%
Pawlenty 4%
This is oviously a great round of polling for Palin--leading in 4 out of 6 states, and finishing 2nd in the others. I must confess, even I didn't expect the numbers to be quite this favorable this soon. As the latest AP-GFK poll indicates, her favorables have improved dramatically over the past two months despite their snarky headline. C4P's Ian Lazaran posted the following omission from the report.
"What the write-up of this Associated Press-GFK poll doesn't tell you is that her favorable/unfavorable numbers have improved by a net seven points from the poll conducted last month and a net seventeen points from the poll conducted in September."
I'm sure I'll catch some flak from many in the Romney camp for this, but could this be a "Dancing With the Stars" bump? Over the past two months, the media's caricature of the Palin family has slowly been taking on water. Expect that to continue with her upcoming series, "Sarah Palin's Alaska." Based on some of the clips I've seen, the series appears to be a combination of a travelogue and a campaign ad. While some question her decision to do the series, I contend that Palin came to the realization that this was the most effective way to bypass the left wing media in her quest to rehabilitate her image among the uninformed masses.

On another note, I suspect many are surprised at the poor showing of Gov. Pawlenty in my home state of Minnesota. Although he's been a decent Governor, I know very few people who consider themselves enthusiastic supporters of a Pawlenty candidacy. Despite the fact that Minnesota is a blue state, the Republican base tends to be very conservative. Pawlenty has displayed a few too many moderate tendencies for my liking (a post for another day).


Anonymous said...

In a way, the numbers are not all that surprising. MN, Maine and Wisconsin are all Hockey states, but more than that there are many small town Conservatives within the GOP in those states. While one would expect Mr. Huckabee to win Texas and WV, Mrs. Palin is well liked in those states. It is also not surprising that Mr. Romney did poorly in Texas and WV. Also, it is not surprising that Mrs. Palin came within 10 points in Florida, demographics suggest that it is not an anti-Palin state and at least one other polling company illustrated that Mr. Romney's previous big PPP lead in Florida was a statistic one off.

In short, it was was surprising that Mr. Romney won the the batch of PPP polls and it is not surprising that Mrs. Palin won this round. Haha, I bite my nails and hang on to the edge of my seat waiting for next week's PPP results. While anything could happen, I think Mrs. Palin should do at least OK next week as most of the state (about 4 out of 6) are not Pro-Romney states.


Right Wingnut said...

Another take on her steadily improving poll numbers:

Poll Chart Shows The Exact Point Palin's 2012 Victory Run Began
In June 2010 Sarah Palin reached the nadir of her popular support as measured by the aggregate of polling firms as collected by As this is an aggregate it is unimpeachable and reflects no bias, except possibly that of polling firms, but even that is smoothed out across so many polls.

The chart since then is showing a slow but steady rise, which is the best rise, as it reflects a positive, considered reflection on behalf of the public rather than a kneejerk reaction, one way or the other, to some event.

Of particular significance is the fact that in the two latest polls Palin's unfavorable rating has fallen below 50% which in the case of the latest AP-GfK poll represent a five point drop allied to a five point rise since their last poll, taken less than a month previously. At this current pace it would seem inevitable that by election day 2012 Palin's ratings in this poll would see her favorables well into positive territory. Certainly the current 8 point polling gap between Palin and President Obama is, on these trends, a minor matter, and is approaching the margin of error.

Click link for chart.

Right Wingnut said...

Her book tour is sure to help as well. She got a bump after the last one.

Puma for Life said...

In terms of DWTS, there appear to be many liberals who are watching DWTS and who think Bristol is a charming, gracious person and thus they are actually voting for her. This means, also, that they are now making their own decisions about the Palins and not buying into the hate that is being spewed forth, even at Bristol, from the left. This goes along with SP's belief that if people get to know you, they realize you are not a boogyman or whatever else the LSM is portraying you as. The adventure series is part of her strategy to make herself known to the publc. She is a very smart political strategist.

carlo said...

She seems to have made inroads with liberals and Democrats. See The Bosman post.

kelly said...

It's only one set of Polling data. Romney and Huckabee have a history of topping most polls. Only time will tell, if this was a fluke.

BOSMAN said...

I won't comment on this until I hear what Michael Reagan has to say about this data.