Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Conglomerate PPP Polling After 18 States Pre-election

I now have all 18 of the new PPP polls compiled. I have taken all of the PPP polls that have been conducted since Gingrich has been included. I extracted earlier versions of states that have been polled more than once during that time, saving only the latest of those states. There are 23 states included in this study. I will show categories as follows: Overall, each of the age categories, Conservative, Men, and Women. I will show them both not only as a simple average, but also as a weighted average using the state delegates as the means by which I weight them. For some reason, with Paul removed and Thune, Daniels, and Pawlenty added, there are a whole lot more undecided and someone else. Thune, Daniels, and Pawlenty are all shown in the undecided/someone else category.

Overall Average Overall Weighted Average

Romney 19.35------------------------------------19.34

Palin 17.04--------------- ----------------------- 17.64

Huckabee 16.91------------------ ----------------17.11

Gingrich 15.87------------------------------------16.00
All others are either undecided or support someone else

In order to shorten this posting a little, let me just summarize the age division breakdown as follows:

Palin was best with the 18-29 year olds by a pretty large margin, then Romney, Gingrich, Huckabee

For 30-45 year olds Romney had the best average, then Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich

HOWEVER, with the weighted average for this age group we now have Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich, Romney

In the 46-65 year old group, Romney lead both averages, then Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich, HOWEVER, Huckabee switches places with Palin for the weighted average.

In the over 65 division, Romney lead both averages by a large margin, then Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin
Conservative Average Conservative Weighted Average

Romney---- 18.48----------------------------------18.25

Palin--------- 18.30--------------------------------19.56

Gingrich---- 18.26----------------------------------17.84

Huckabee-- 17.57----------------------------------- 17.67

All others are undecided or someone else

Women Average Women Weighted Average

Romney ------ 19.78----------------------------------19.84

Huckabee----- 18.78----------------------------------19.09

Palin---------- 16.22----------------------------------16.75

Gingrich------- 13.43--------------------------------- 13.07

All others are undecided or support someone else at this time

Men Average Men Weighted Average

Romney -----19.09---------------------------------19.03

Gingrich------18.17-------------------------------- 18.63

Palin--------- 17.43-------------------------------- 18.42

Huckabee---- 15.26-------------------------------- 15.37

All others are undecided or support someone else.

If anyone would like to put this into a nice, neat posting, feel free. I find the data interesting, and look forward to hearing the spin. The MOE on this much data would be very, very small. So, for these particular states, this is pretty much the story thus far. By the way the states involved in all except the age breakdown are:
KY, CO, IA, SC, LA, NV, FL, PA, IL, AK, TX, NH, ME, CA, MI, WV, CT, NC, OH, and WA
By the way, the MOE on this data would be extremely small. So, what you see is what you get.
In addition:

1) Of the 23 states, how many did each person win?

Romney: 8.5 Huckabee: 5 Palin: 7 Gingrich: 2.5

2) IF it were a winner take all in these states what would the delegate count be?

Romney: 503.5 Palin: 376 Huckabee: 233 Gingrich: 116.5

3) SC treated as a tie

Have fun. I would like to hear your comments. Don't stray too far from the subject matter please.


BOSMAN said...


Thanks for doing all the number crunching of these polls.

You're THE MAN!

Noelle said...

I don't understand what the "weighted average" mean. Can you please clarify? Thanks.

phil said...

It's closer than I'd like. However being in the lead is better than not being in the lead.

Illinoisguy said...

The weighted average is just a means by which the larger population states are given a more proportional weight. I could have used population, registered Republican, those voting Republican in 2008 Presidential race, or something else. I chose to use delegates to the Republican convention as my weighting factor. The exact methodology of this is a little difficult to put in English.

kelly said...

I don't know what this means, but I'm glad Romney is ahead (-;

Noelle said...

OK, that makes sense I-guy. I'm with Kelly. I'm just glad he's ahead, and I hope that the lead increases!

Ann said...

Looks like a lot of hard work figuring this out IG. Thank you for taking the time to do this.

Romney in 12!

Anonymous said...

Results for VA are now in.