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| ABC NEWS / YOUTUBE |
‘These shifts were largely due to lower levels of net international migration, which declined nationwide.’
What happens with a secure border?
A new report from the U.S. Census Bureau describes a remarkable set of changes happening in the United States. Population growth is slowing or reversing toward decline in many metropolitan areas, and population losses are accelerating in some counties that were already shrinking.
Several things are happening behind those changes, but here’s what the Census Bureau identifies as the biggest cause:
“These shifts were largely due to lower levels of net international migration (NIM), which declined nationwide. Nine out of 10 U.S. counties experienced lower NIM levels between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025, compared to the year prior. The one in 10 counties that did not see a drop in international migration did not see an increase either.”
So far fewer people are coming to the United States, which is slowing population growth in the places those immigrants were most likely to go. But we’re not just discussing immigrants, because we’re largely talking about a more specific type of immigration.
In a report last summer, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco identified the leading cause of the increasingly apparent decline in net migration: “Fewer undocumented immigrants arriving at or between ports of entry also led to a significantly lower 2025 NIM projection relative to 2023 and 2024…[as] the inflow of undocumented immigrants declined from a peak of around 1.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 to around 180,000 in the second quarter of 2025.”
So when you see the Census Bureau using the term “net international migration,” a lot of what they’re talking about is illegal immigration.
The Census Bureau adds this interesting fact: “Some of the country’s most populous counties experienced the greatest impacts from lower NIM.”
In other words, Deep Blue cities like Los Angeles and New York City are getting hit the hardest. The New York Times has turned the data into a helpful color-coded map to illustrate this story, and it’s quite something to look at. Net immigration is down 67 percent in LA, 72 percent in the Denver metropolitan area, 62 percent in Chicago, and 65 percent in the New York City metropolitan area. Remember this pattern, because I’ll come back to it in a moment.
The new Census Bureau report develops some themes that have been showing up in official reports for a few months, and you can also take a look at this late January report: “New Population Estimates Show Historic Decline in Net International Migration.” If the trend continues, the Census Bureau says, net international migration into the United States is “projected to further decline to approximately 321,000 in 2026.” That’s a massive decline. --->READ MORE HERE
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| Gregory Bull |
Texas, Sun Belt states lead in growth, while cities, border areas lead declines
Population growth in U.S. cities has slowed and some of the steepest drops are in communities along the southern border as immigration fell during the opening months of President Donald Trump’s second term, according to new Census Bureau estimates.
The bureau said the average growth rate for metro areas fell to 0.6% in 2025 from 1.1% a year earlier, reflecting a broad slowdown in international migration after immigrants had helped fuel urban rebounds in 2024, the last year of President Joe Biden's open border policies.
"That pattern suggests a sharper rise-and-fall effect in border regions, where international migration plays a more central role in year-to-year population change," Texas Demographic Center interim director Helen You told The Associated Press.
Metro areas along the U.S.-Mexico border saw the steepest declines as the number of immigrants fell, including in Laredo, Texas; Yuma, Arizona; and El Centro, California. Big immigration hubs also saw significant drops. Miami-Dade County, Harris County in Texas and Los Angeles County all took in far fewer immigrants last year.
Laredo, Texas, saw its growth rate tumble from 3.2% to 0.2%. Yuma, Arizona, dropped from 3.3% to 1.4%, while El Centro, California, fell from 1.2% growth into a 0.7% decline.
The slowdown extended beyond the border. Major immigrant destinations, including Miami-Dade County, Harris County, Texas, and Los Angeles County, all recorded much lower levels of immigration in 2025. The Census Bureau said nine out of 10 U.S. counties took in fewer immigrants than a year earlier.
The Census Bureau data covers a one-year period ending in July 2025.
Demographers said the change mattered because immigration has become a key driver of population growth in an aging country with low birth rates. In many large metro areas, it now plays an outsized role in determining whether populations rise or fall. --->READ MORE HEREFollow links below to relevant stories:
+++++Tenth Straight Month of Zero Illegal Aliens Released at the Border+++++
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